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April 10, 2012 08:45 PM UTC

PPP in Colorado: Obama 53%, Romney 40%

  • 22 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

The discussable word today from Public Policy Polling:

Barack Obama’s opened up a 13 point lead on Mitt Romney in Colorado at 53-40. He’s gained 11 points in the state since December when he led just 47-45.

The formula for Obama’s gains is the same in Colorado as it is everywhere. He’s getting more popular and Romney’s getting less popular. In December only 45% of voters approved of the job Obama was doing to 50% who disapproved. Now he’s on positive ground with 50% giving him good marks to 47% who think he’s doing a poor job. The main thing that’s changed is Democrats really rallying around him. In December he was at 76/18 with them, but now it’s 89/8. The party is getting a lot more unified as the election comes closer.

Romney’s headed in the other direction. His net favorability has gone from – 18 (35/53) to an even worse – 29 (31/60). Romney had a healthy amount of appeal to Democrats earlier with 20% viewing him favorably but that’s now down to 11%. And he’s extremely unpopular with independents at 25/65…

Full memo is here. As with all such early polls, the biggest thing to take away is the spread between favorable and unfavorable ratings–in Colorado, particularly among the all-important independent voters. It’s very clear that the bruising Republican primary has taken its toll on Mitt Romney with our independents, and it’s going to take far longer to recover from this far underwater than it would to pull Barack Obama down to similar levels.

Assuming, of course, that there’s any way to do that.

Comments

22 thoughts on “PPP in Colorado: Obama 53%, Romney 40%

  1. The sample is one that voted for Obama by 8 points over McCain in 08 — one point less pro-Obama than the state actually was in 2008 (when CO voted Obama by 9 points). The sample also is almost exactly evenly split between Dem & Rep and between lib & conserv.

    Just wanted to preemptively rebut the “baaah, I don’t believe it because I don’t wanna” argument of Arap & others.

    1. We’re right at the end of a bruising primary, when the winner faces some resistance from party members who voted for the other guy — that’s why Romney wins only 83% of Rs while Obama wins 90% of Dems. The “missing Rs” will return to Romney, just as the initially anti-Obama Hillary supporters eventually went for Obama in 2008.

      But Romney winning over the remaining Rs will get him only another 3-5 points, because he’s down 7% with a party that’s barely a third of the voters — i.e., the “missing Republicans” are costing him only 2-3 points. Romney probably is down among conservative independents too, but that won’t be more than 1-2 points based on the cross-tabs.

      The point is that Romney winning over reluctant conservatives won’t erase a 13-point gap; at most it’ll cut that gap to 8-10 points — i.e., John McCain’s margin of defeat.

      1. If I could find one of those greek columns today,  I would fashion it into a giant blue dildo, write the word DEMOCRAT (not DEMOCRATIC, because I know you don’t like it that way) on the side of it, and then repeatedly beat you over the head with it, and then shove it up your tight, smarmy little Tucker Carlson conservative asshole until you either A) pass out, or B) ask for forgiveness, and promise to start using your mind instead of repeating what Daddy the conservative authority figure keeps telling you every day.

        Now THAT would be a fun time my friend.

        I got a huge promotion today, so I thought I’d celebrate !  Going to be very busy starting NOW, so if this lands me in the P-Box so be it.

        Cheers all.

        1. Your imagery is vivid, the screams almost audible.

          Getting the trolls to think is going to be hard difficult.  

          And the TC reference was gratuitous – not that there’s anything wrong with that.

      2. Whether “Obama has eroded” is the question the poll asks; even if he has eroded (debatable given this poll), the one-point margin was between D and R registration in the state — which seems about right to me.

  2. I read on this very blog already that Obama was doomed.  In fact, I predict someone will be along here shortly to tell us that.  

    Mittens ‘Etch-A-Sketch’ Willard Romney is a ‘fine’ candidate.

      1. On this race are suspect.  They show Rmoney tied or ahead in national polls and Obama with a large (7%) deficit in favorability.  But when you look at the state polls in the swing states, these numbers just don’t hold up, even if you just look at Rasmussen’s numbers.  The numbers just show that Obama is willing all of the swing states, and some of them handily, like Colorado.  Rasmussen’s numbers are just plain internally inconsistent.

        Now I agree that Rmoney is most likely to pick up 3-5% when REpublicans come home and I also think this race will tighten more.  But even if it does, the Obama/Democratic machine so far outpaces the Republicans that Obama/Democrats are likely to win the close races – and that’s what Colorado is all about.

  3. Read the cross-tabs at PPP

    Romney’s problem with women shows itself in a major way in Colorado. He’s down by 24 points with them at 58-34. With men the race is actually tied. Obama’s also up by an astounding 72-17 margin with voters under 30 in the state, a pretty good sign of where Colorado is headed politically.

    Coattails

    I’d like to see how female support has changed for down-ballot candidates and/or the Republican Party.  

    1. They might-  but they did once and now have buyer’s remorse.

      And more important things to do – involving shoes and laundry.

      And they are too busy having all that contracepted sex or trying to balance aspirin between their knees.

      In short- women don’t vote, and even when they do they don’t matter because they submit and vote how their men tell them to vote.

      Consider your theory refudiated.

    2. And Obama is up 33 points over Rmoney by women between 18 and 50. See the Pew article as it has lots of detail and discussion.

      Barack Obama’s lead over Romney is attributable in large part to his wide advantage among women, younger voters, and nonwhites. Women favor Obama over Romney by 20 points – virtually unchanged from a month ago – while men are divided almost evenly (49% Obama, 46% Romney). This gender gap is particularly wide among voters under age 50. Women ages 18-49 favor Obama over Romney by nearly two-to-one (64% to 33%), while men the same age are split (50% Obama, 46% Romney).

    1. Poll respondents:

      Democrat: 36%

      Republican: 35%

      Independent/other: 30%

      Actual numbers:

      Democrats: 686,524 or 31.6 percent

      Republican: 804,979 or 37.1 percent

      Unaffiliated: 663,483 or 30.5 percent

      Trying to figure out how you could honestly claim unaffiliated voters are undersampled. Also if you took 5% of Obama’s numbers and gave them all to Romney (corresponding to a 31% D, 40% R, 30% U split, oversampling Republicans), you’d still get Obama winning.  

      1. People abandon the Republican Party in three steps.

        First, they get sick of the favor-the-rich policies, and all the crazy talk, and the anti-science and religious leaders telling them what to do.

        Second, they start to call themselves Unaffiliated/Independents or Democrats.

        Third, they get around to changing their registration affiliation.

        So, there is no surprise to see a poll in Colorado showing a difference between Party Identification and 2008 Voting or Party Registration.

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