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March 31, 2022 07:09 AM UTC
27 Comments
Thanks Pols for the great quote today. Just reading it made me think of Blowbert and her daily activities.
Noah Smith on "War Got Weird"
Includes the hit song "Bayraktor".
…
And the cost of a javelin is what – maybe 1/100 the cost of a tank. The training of 1 soldier to fire a javelin is nothing compared to the time and money to train a tank crew.
It is ridiculously lopsided in favor of soldiers with a javelin over a tank & crew. This war may make the tank obsolete just as the tank & machine gun made the calvary obsolete.
Yes, but…
Follow Markos as he has specific battlefield experience with managing a mobile missile launch team. Very interesting to listen to someone who was almost an NCO.
He points out that the Ukrainian resistance works well in the West and North where there exists some terrain and tree cover, not to mention mud season and river barriers. In the South, the terrain is flat and tree-less, sort of like Eastern Colorado. Without the protection of tanks it is pretty hard to go on the offensive. Also, the Russian airforce has been somewhat active.
“may make the tank obsolete…..”
Reminds me of a Bill Maudlin line in his chronicle of World War II, “Upfront.” One GI says to another, stating his preference for foxholes: “a moving foxhole (tank) attracts the eye.”
Ukraine update:
This remains the key battle between Democracy and Autocracy. I worry that some of the key people in the U.S., NATO, etc. are looking for easy shortcuts to an end to the fighting. These same people, if they get their way, will then be shocked when Putin launches his next adventure.
Ukraine needs to recover all of their land. And Russia needs to remain sanctioned as they pay for the damages. Anything less and we'll have this same problem again, with Russia better prepared.
On the good news side, Ukraine can win this thing. Mariupol is now the key fight. If Ukraine can hold here, then Russia does not have their land bridge to Crimea. If Ukraine holds here and gains a corridor back to it, then the tide of the war has turned.
What the U.S./NATO needs to do is give them everything they can including aircraft, tanks, more sophisticated anti-aircraft. and tens of thousands of javelins, stingers, etc.
Also thought for the day. I think Russia has a new even more important reason they don't want Ukraine in NATO. They don't want the Ukrainian army as part of NATO – because that means in a fight on the ground they will lose.
The economist John Maynard Keynes, in his prescient essay “The Economic Consequences of the Peace”, proved the folly of the Versailles treaty’s effort to force Germany to pay huge reparations while simultaneously depriving it of the ability to earn hard currency in trade.
David, you want to destroy the Russian economy with crippling sanctions while making them pay to rebuild ukraine?
How?
That could lead to WwIII. The U.S. and E.U. Should pay most of the cost of rebuilding Ukraine — because we can.
I would distinguish between the Russian people and the Putin dictatorship.
I agree with the idea that WWII came about due to the impossible reparations bill given to the Germans, and the fact that post WWI Germany was therefore unable to integrate into the economy of Europe. On the other hand, there were some lingering colonial interests that also contributed to WWII.
The equivalent insight wrt Russia is to see what happens as Russia commits suicide and then disintegrates. The fault lines in Russia will become more apparent:
Russia vs Putin
Putin vs Oligarchs
Regional ethnicities vs Russia
Regional economic interests vs Russia.
Demographic change (Asian and non-Russian minorities are growing.
Adding… Not to mention the rising power in the wings, i.e. the United States
You bring up a good point on not signing a peace that guarantees another war 20 years later. And too harsh a peach can be every bit as bad as too light a peace.
One important thing to keep in mind, everyone wants a fast victory, like the Battle of Midway or the Thunder Run into Baghdad. But war is rarely like that.
While Midway was one of the key battles where the war in the Pacific turned, the other two were Guadalcanal and the fight back and forth over the Owen Stanley mountains. Those battles lasted close to a year and were touch & go.
We have it in our power to give Ukraine what they need to win. But that requires additional more advanced weaponry and continuing to deluge them with what we're already sending.
And to be prepared for this to take a year to settle on the battlefield and maybe as much as 5 years for the sanctions to get us to an equitable peace.
Well worth reading:
And question of the day – why is there any secrecy around who owns anything? We have these trusts and front companies and other stuff. But what is the logic as to why this is allowed?
Another crazy idea.
The USA should declare war on Ukraine. Then, we could march our troops into the country "legally".
"Don't poke the bear". How far do you taunt the crazy bastard running a giant gas station armed with nukes, and now in a super-sized hermit kingdom.
Interesting to watch a country commit suicide:
Putin has announced that they will cut off gas supplies to any Western country that doesn't pay in Rubles.
For real?
Does this apply to paid trolls, as well? I expect Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon, et al, are still paid in USD.
Negev – What currencie(s) are you accepting to spread Putin’s propaganda? Or are you still volunteering?
Negev is like that Russian Tik-tok influencer who argues that raping 17 year old Ukrainian girls is okay because they are at the age of consent.
I may consider rubles, as they have rebounded to near pre war value. Looks like it may be the only way to heat my house…Once China signs up and calls in its debt I may just burn dollar bills..
Maybe if we got our NATO allies to stop buying gas from Puti those sanctions would "deter" a bit more….
That didn't last long: https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/italy-russia-seek-payment-rubles-natural-gas-83784262
Maybe, just maybe don’t tell your soldiers to dig trenches in highly radioactive soil.
And, it would be a good idea to provide your grunts with basics like clean socks, good meals, proper latrines.
Then there were the 300 South Ossetians who quit fighting and HITCH-HIKED home!
Josh Kovensky at TPM Reminds us that "The First Impeachment was about Ukraine."
Welcome to today's edition of grading our Senators.
First up, in order of seniority is Senator Michael Bennet. While I was not fan of Bennet for his first 6 or so years when he was representing Wall St, I have come to appreciate him as he has evolved into someone representing the people of Colorado. And looking to improve things for everyone, even at the expense of Wall St.
Looking at the legislation he is sponsoring this session (35 bills), we see several good ones and one strong one for the war against autocracy:
We give Senator Bennet a grade of B. And we have hope that if he applies himself, he can raise that grade.
Second we have Senator John Hickenlooper. He's been quiet to date as a Senator except for the brief attempt to run for President which was met with a yawn.
Looking at the legislation he is sponsoring this session (17 bills), we see nothing significant (granted some of the bills are useful). And nothing focused on the war against autocracy.
We give Senator Hickenlooper a grade of C-. And he only gets that because he's a reliable backbencher quietly toeing the party line and voting with the party on all key legislation.
Like the star football player in High School who's too dumb to actually pass any class but gets the grades for the sake of the team, we have no hope that we'll see any improvement here.
It's too bad because with his background in Oil & Gas he's be a natural to take the lead on crafting legislation for energy security for the democracies.
Quibble. You imply Hick ran for president as a senator. His presidential bid was before he settled for a Senate seat. He gets an A for not being Cory Gardner.
David is grading on the Miss Shields' scale.
Not that this surprises anyone.
Preface: Phil’s Gazette
Another good article on why anything short of a clear win for Ukraine means Putin will rest, recover, and attack again.
This is Transgender Day of Visibility, sayeth the Washington Post. That makes this as good a day as any to note that people are more than the sum of their labels.
Dominos Vobiscum, Trans Folk.
May laughter and love lighten your burdens.
💯