Santorum Now Outmatching Romney in “Purple Poll”

The Colorado Independent’s Scot Kersgaard:

In…12 states combined, Obama leads Romney 47-43 and Santorum 46-44. The polling data is not broken down by individual states, but lumps Colorado in with Nevada and New Mexico and shows Obama over Romney 47-44, but trailing Santorum 47-46 in those states.

When rated by approval/disapproval numbers, however, Obama appears much stronger with a 46 percent approval rating compared with a 48 percent disapproval rating. Romney’s numbers come in 27 percent approval against 57 percent who disapprove of the former Massachusetts governor. Santorum does a little better at 33/49…

A little more on this poll from Purple Strategies:

Unlike other polls, the PurplePoll focuses exclusively on the 12 states that are most likely to determine whether President Obama will win re-election: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

These states were won by President Obama en route to his 365 electoral votes. Since 1996, nine of these states swung between the Republican and Democratic candidates. Three states  (MN, PA, and WI) have been decided by 3 points or less at least once since 2000. The voters in these states have held the presidential election balance for the past dozen years, and will continue to do so in 2012…

In addition to data from the overall Purple electorate, we divide the data into regional state clusters: “The Wild West” (CO, NV, NM), “The Heartland” (IA, MN, WI), “The Rust Belt” (NH, OH, PA) and “The Southern Swing” (NC, VA, Fl). These groupings help provide more texture to our results.

Naturally we’d love to see a Colorado-only breakout of these numbers, as these kinds of regionalist generalizations annoy the hell out of us. No, Colorado is not New Mexico. That said, the “Purple Poll’s” numbers tell the story of Mitt Romney’s nosedive more than anything else, because a 57% disapproval rating is going to be incredibly difficult to overcome. Nobody expects Rick Santorum’s positives to go up from the limelight GOP primary position he’s in today: much more important is the shattering of Romney’s presumption of electability. Ultimately, there’s only one candidate who is really benefiting from Santorum’s persistent rise in the polls and growing momentum–and that’s Barack Obama.

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11 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. MADCO says:

    Maybe because the PurplePoll lines up with my instincts what I’ve been hearing, and feeling, or maybe because this just sounds right.  

    A lot of R’s are not that into Romney.

    Santorum is a tough alternative, esp in the socailly who cares? west.

    I’d like to think INdiana is in play, but FL, OH and PA are the ballgame.

  2. davebarnesdavebarnes says:

    Romney was asked by an AP reporter if he follows NASCAR. “Not as closely as some of the most ardent fans. But I have some great friends who are NASCAR team owners,” he replied.  

  3. ArapaGOPArapaGOP says:

    Sounds like “Republicans for Obama”

    I don’t buy it. These numbers are stupid. No sane person thinks Santorum can outperform Romney against Obama.

    • Libertad 2.0 says:

      hasn’t it?

      • RedGreenRedGreen says:

        with the fact that reliable Republican voters and volunteers are tired of being told who to vote for, tired of having their time and energy taken for granted to elect reliably establishment Republicans, tired of being patted on the head and told to wait their turn.

        His overlords have unleashed an angry mob and they don’t understand that this mob is through taking orders.

        But don’t worry — Romney and the establishment Republicans will spend what it takes to put Santorum in his place and remind evangelicals and populist Republicans that their participation is welcome but that all they get to do is vote for an approved candidate, not actually influence anything beyond that. The natural order will be restored.

    • sxp151 says:

      That sounds like something a student might say after getting a question wrong, if he were completely unable to take personal responsibility or perceive the existence of objective reality. Carry on.

    • DavidThi808DavidThi808 says:

      The problem with Romney is few like him and even fewer respect him. Dislike is surmountable (see Nixon) but lack of respect is a killer.

      • ArapaGOPArapaGOP says:

        But you’ve been submersed in a bubble of negativity against Romney. But while you were here posting your 22,000 comments, Romney is still making numerically more impressions than anyone else. If we can just get past this stupid sideshow primary, Romney will face Obama alone, without having to attack other conservatives too.

        The matchup is still completely inside the margin of error. Romney will have work to do after this primary, but Santorum, Gingrich and the rest will be on the stage with him when it’s over. I will be very relieved when Republicans are finally through doing Obama’s work for him.

        • Ralphie says:

          You’ve been assigned the job of trying to bullshit people who can’t be bullshitted.

          I feel for you, old man.

          Better luck with your next job.

        • SSG_Dan says:

          The Republican’t party is dealing with it’s own John Kerry moment. Mittens will be the extremely pliant and slippery nominee, but no one will be happy about it…

          New poll shows GOP primary bitterness a boost for Barack Obama

          The likely-to-be-lengthy Republican nominating battle isn’t doing the Republican candidates any favors. President Obama is pulling ahead of the Republicans in head to head polls. Voters are viewing all the Republican candidates less favorably than they did several months ago, with the exception of Rick Santorum who barely registered in the polls until January.

          http://www.boston.com/Boston/p

          Money quote:

          For now, the race appears to be harming the Republicans. A POLITICO/George Washington University poll out today found that Obama’s approval ratings rose by nine points over the last four months. Obama leads Romney, his closest Republican opponent, by 10 points, compared to six in November. A Washington Post-ABC News poll released two weeks ago found Obama had opened his strongest lead yet against Romney. The same poll showed that more than half of voters were not happy with what they were hearing from the Republican candidates.

        • ajb says:

          Channeling your inner Mitt, eh? Priceless.

          “Romney is still making numerically more impressions than anyone else.” I’d be careful with that line of attack. After all, he’s still losing despite outspending his opponents 10-1. That’s not the sort of weakness you really want to draw attention to.  

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