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March 23, 2022 06:46 AM UTC
53 Comments
Noah Smith on Ukrainian Reconstruction and prosperity after the war.
Yeah, it's early, but it might just look like Ukraine's army is turning the tide on the Russians. Noah Smith is an economist who's writing is particularly accessible. He notes that Ukraine's post-Soviet economy has lagged when compared to Poland, Belarus and even Russia.
…
Good article in the Atlantic.
“The body count is going to grow. But a NATO intervention would solve almost all of Putin’s problems, and create dangers we cannot predict.”
Both posts are very spot on.
A couple of additional points. First, Ukraine needs to defeat Russia. Not a bloody stalemate and then negotiation, but defeat them. This does not mean Ukrainian tanks in Red Square. But it does mean they need to push Russia out of all of Ukraine including the entire Donbass area and if possible, Crimea. Russia needs to end up worse of than the start of the invasion so there's no way they can claim "victory."
Second, at the start of WWII FDR went against the advice of his advisors (except Harry Hopkins), military leaders, and Congressmen and delivered tons of weapons and supplies to the UK & Russia estimating that they would fight. He was right.
LBJ went against the advice of some in Congress and escalated our troops in Vietnam. He was wrong. And with LBJs spiraling down to oblivion there went additional proposals for Civil Rights, poverty, etc.
Biden is doing a good job so far. But he and his administration are not perfect and by definition they have an echo chamber in the house. Thoughtful educated feedback an yes pressure will improve things. It's the duty of Congress to step up here. Some are, but way too few.
Agreed, David, but "defeating" Russia means more than grinding them down. Unless the Ukrainian Army can throw Russia back somewhere in a convincing way, Russia "wins" a pyrrhic victory and will get Lukhansk and Donetsk, along with permanent recognition of the Crimea annexation.
Putin knows this, too, and I don't think Ukraine can do that alone even with additional weapons from the West. It's modern symmetrical warfare and both sides are getting beat up pretty badly.
Ukraine has other things going for it. An alert, armed, and informed citizenry willing to put lives on the line in defense of their country. And Russian speakers in Kherson haven't exactly welcomed the occupiers with "open arms" either.
One can also wonder how solid for Russia many of the Russian speakers in the DonBas now are.
Another reason to follow Josh Marshall at TPM.
Yep!
On the military front a lot of the Russian front line units look like they have 30% casualties. With it heavy on the officer corps. This means these brigades are combat ineffective.
It'll start slowly but we should see Ukraine start to advance. And keep in mind those large areas shown on the map as controlled by Russia – – all Russia controls there is some roads in them and the occasional village center.
On the economic front, Russia is crashing. They are losing a critical number of IT people. You can't run a modern economy without them. They have shortages already and that's going to grow with no way out of it as Russia imports a giant chunk of its finished products from candy to tractors.
And they talk about the economy contracting 15%. That's not everyone tightening their belt a little, that's a giant swatch of people being laid off. It's many others having to give up vacations, new cars, repairing a broken dishwasher, etc. This is going to hurt a significant percentage of their population really bad.
It'll take some time. At the quickest 2 – 3 months. Maybe over a year. But the result, if the West keeps supporting Ukraine 100%, is going to be very good.
Biden having an "echo chamber" in the House?????
Of the various descriptions of the cacophony in the House, "echo chamber" seems least accurate to me. There is an adequate majority in the center to get most of what Biden wants and the Senate is willing to go along with. But the Administration is taking pot shots from the right, from the RWNJ extremists, from the militarists calling for a no-fly zone (or two, or three, or the whole country of Ukraine plus air space around it), and from the LWNJ folks who want to put their proposals into "must pass" assistance legislation.
Sorry, to clarify I mean from Democrats in the House on the topic of Ukraine.
On domestic issues yes half the Dems in the House are all clamoring for their personal favorites. And pretty much all the Republicans are saying that anything Biden does is dead wrong.
"defeat"
“You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means."
Seriously. I understand that the civilians run the US military. Just as I understand that most civilians do not understand military issues as well as they might like to think they do.
Defeat can mean many things, but it does not mean what you say – " push Russia out of all of Ukraine including the entire Donbass area and if possible, Crimea."
No half measures, Walt.
Destroy an opponent's army and ability to wage war is a fair definition. Maybe ceding Crimea is not.
No matter what happens next – Russia is going to claim victory. I am confident you know what deep fake technology can do. If the Ukrainian military occupied every part of the Kremlin and the headquarters of GRU, KGB and any other Russian alphabet agency, Russia will claim victory.
Congress cannot step up until or unless their voters press them too. They need to know the reelect depends on it.
As for LBJ, your metrics are off.
LBJ passed Medicare, Medicaid and the Civil Rights act of 1964.
He was no FDR/Truman – but he redefined America.
Things Carter, Clinton, Obama or Biden could not do.
FWIW, Poland is still generating much of its power by burning dirty coal.
It's not directly related to Colorado politics but I'll bet Hick and Bennet were not looking forward to serving with this moron….
Trump pulls Senate endorsement of Alabama Rep. Mo Brooks (msn.com)
This should be notice to everyone else that kissing Trump's ass is not a one-time event to garner the coveted endorsement but an ongoing process.
And while we are on the subject of Hick and Bennet's GOP colleagues, there is this one:
Indiana Sen. Braun walks back comments that interracial marriage ruling should have been left to states (msn.com)
Memo to Mike Braun: If you try thinking before speaking you will be less likely to have to walk back your idiotic remarks.
For completeness sakes!
Thank you for the others.
Perhaps Ted Cruz will come out in favor of overruling Brown v. Board of Education and restoration of Plessy v. Ferguson.
It's a feeding frenzy to the bottom of a very deep sewer.
Is it
InfrstructuePeak White America Week??Watching the Clown Car Happy Hour yesterday was like watching Einstein being interviewed by Porky Pig, Mr. Magoo and the Three Stooges.
How hard it must have been for KBJ to not respond, “Yes, of course,” when Marsha Blackburn kept asking if KBJ thought anti- choice women like Blackburn were “stupid and hostile.”
I guess their strategy is to keep provoking the judge, hoping she’ll crack and lose her cool.
Rep. Blanche Graham “stormed out” of the hearing room in frustration, after his best efforts to unsettle KBJ failed.
They were definitely baiting her. They wanted to make her blow her cool so they could use the trope of the “angry black woman” as an excuse to reject her (which they already planned to do) and make it her fault. I hate it when people treat me like I’m stupid, as they did today.
They are not honorable people. Sen. Sasser used the right term..
“jackassery”.
“angry black woman”
We know how much they love their angry white men professing their love for beer.
All of these senators are pandering to Christian nationalists.
More here: www.au.org
um.. duh?
And the context of the Braun comment are especially notable — the major event of his day was staring at a Black Woman seated in front of him, as she answering questions from Senators (including Braun), with her White "Boston Brahmin" husband and their two daughters (21 and 17 years old) immediately behind her.
I wonder if Braun realized that one of his heroes, Clarence Thomas, is in an interracial marriage.
I've had Republican* say to my husband and I that your marriage isn't real at a gay wedding. Many of them are like Michael Scott of the Office too dumb to know they are being offensive.
*Claimed to be a Libertarian the cowards way of saying they are a Republican
"Libertarianism as a political ideology is most closely similar to a barn full of feral cats. The cats didn't build the barn and they don't trust each other, but they hate being outside in the rain, cold and hungry, even more. They depend on the farmer, but God do they hate him." Jim Wright@Stonekettle Station
That does sum it all up.
Long live Jim Wright @Stonkettle Station!
‘“MAGA Mo Brooks” is now ‘Woke Mo Brooks”
Gawd, you just couldn’t make this up 🤣🤣🤣
A really interesting thread about what may be going on inside the FSB. (follow here)
This is the 11th letter from a purported FSB whistleblower. Again, Bellingcat and others have said the likelihood that these letters are legit is extremely high. 2 FSB officers (one current and one retired) have also stated they believe the letters are real.
I'm suspicious of narratives that skew into my preferred and hopeful beliefs.
I get excited, but hold a healthy skepticism.
Agreed. That said, reports suggest the Kremlin’s Defense Minister has gone missing:
I really hope this is the case. Implosion from within the Kremlin and the toppling of Putin would relieve the world, Russia, and Ukraine of a lot of unnecessary suffering.
Meanwhile, Alexei Navalny quotes a line from 'The Wire' in response to his 9-year prison sentence. "You only do two days. Thats the day you go in and the day you come out"
That's strong as hell. Navalny is the man.
Meanwhile, the world’s largest exporter of wheat is destroying the civil infrastructure of the world’s fourth largest exporter of wheat. There is going to be a significant
warPutin dividend across the eastern plains of Colorado this year.For sure. Already over ten bucks per bushel, which is crazy.
Michael — did the situation happen soon enough to allow farmers to re-arrange their plans of January and early February, and shift acreage to additional wheat? Is there enough equipment and infrastructure to support a significant increase in that crop?
It kinda depends on how far north you are, I think. Michael will have a better answer, but I think it is like oil and stuff. It takes time from field to factory.
Not really, John. We sow winter wheat in September and harvest in June/July. Spring wheat is iffy as our hot July winds make it hostile to the plant so we’re (at least in the lower, Cemtral Great Plains, stuck with what we planted last Fall.
Tell it to grow faster
🤣🤣🤣
I saw a discussion about the hollowing out of the Russian military due to corruption and political favoritism. I pointed to Shoigu as contributing to the general failure because he was a pre-eminent political player rather than a technocratic military manager.
Yes, Shogiu was relieved, which was a “reasonable” response to the military failures.
Putin keeps everyone out of physical reach ( not just Shoigu). Fear of Covid, assassination, or both?
I, too, hope for a mutiny against Putin and a return to sanity for Russia’s government. But many more will die before that happens.
I have learned recently that Putin is super paranoid about being poisoned. Probably because he knows firsthand how effective it is.
“Let’s try ‘What is a little polonium between friends?’ for $2,000,000,000, comrade Aleksey?” . . .
Avoid soups and doorknobs !
And many more after that happens.
The Defense Minister has gone missing.
Not surprised. I really expected him to have started executing generals by this point in time like his role model, Stalin, used to do.
You re not going to see that guy no more. He went away. Best case he is running some store front deli in Phoenix. But he is gone. There is no Marklinson.
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Really good book: Our Man in Charleston: Britain's Secret Agent in the Civil War South. It tells the story of the British Consul Robert Bunch who was instrumental in stopping the UK from recognizing the Confederacy.
And it reminded me of this great quote about South Carolina by one of the state's main political figures. It still holds true today:
Bunch also said the primary reason Americans were such a violent people is slavery. When every day they would whip people, and when there was no repercussions for killing a slave, it made extreme violence a casual everyday thing.
It's a really good point. To this day it could still be a large part of the level of violence in this country.
Interesting. Not to mention the White privilege of taking land from Native Americans.
I'm FINALLY getting FB ads for Democratic races in various parts of the country. Why the Dems are so frickin' afraid of electioneering, I'll never get.
For a while I was getting come-on sucker ads from Trump and the RNC. That may seem like wasted money, but to me it shows they are constantly campaigning and doing outreach for new names for their email and funding lists.
What?!
Facebook has ads?
Who knew?