U.S. Senate
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(D) J. Hickenlooper*
(R) Somebody
80%
20%
Governor
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(D) Phil Weiser
(D) Joe Neguse
(D) Jena Griswold
60%
60%
40%↓
Att. General
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(D) M. Dougherty
(D) Alexis King
(D) Brian Mason
40%
40%
30%
Sec. of State
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(D) A. Gonzalez
(D) George Stern
(R) Sheri Davis
50%↑
40%
30%
State Treasurer
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(D) Brianna Titone
(R) Kevin Grantham
(D) Jerry DiTullio
60%
30%
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(R) Jeff Hurd*
(D) Somebody
80%
40%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert*
(D) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank*
(D) Somebody
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(R) Gabe Evans*
(D) Yadira Caraveo
(D) Joe Salazar
50%
40%
40%
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
December 13, 2011 09:26 AM UTC
45 Comments
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While Democrats only need one vote to take control, they need more than that to ensure passage of their agenda. Democrats, unlike Republicans, tend to think for themselves and cannot always be kept in strict marching formation.
So occasionally, due to their life history, the make-up of their constituents, or any number of other factors, one or more democrats often vote against their party on major legislation.
So while that one vote is a good initial benchmark of success, progressive activists need to work for as many as they can get.
As far as the 2012 session goes, there are some hot pieces that we are guaranteed to see come up again, most notably civil unions and in-state tuition for undocumented immigrants.
Civil unions would have passed if it had made it to the floor last year with three Republicans on the record supporting it. And with the right in chaos (and I agree with your prediction there), I think the chances of it getting that overdue vote on the floor in 2012 is likely.
With that example in mind, I think the Dems can reasonably expect to pass some of their agenda this year and not have to wait for 2013.
But as I said before, even a majority doesn’t guarantee that things move. It will be important this year to encourage and support Democrats who take bold positions and do what we can to keep everyone on the same page. Otherwise, we risk squandering or losing the advantage that we have… again.
The ability of the Speaker to send bills to the killing committee to meet their death. He has done this and will do this. Therefore, I think predictions of any Democratic victories in the session are ridiculous.
they risk revealing that they are laughably ignorant of the legislative process.
I don’t know what your problem is, but you’ve been following me around on here lobbing oddly personal attacks that suggest you have either a personal issue with me or a vested interest in one of my opponents.
If it is the former, I would encourage you to contact me directly so that we can address it. If it is the latter, well, I guess that’s you call. But the danger of constantly blogging as a shill is that you risk revealing that you are tragically void of any credibility.
When there’s something that you don’t want to talk about, change the subject. I don’t know who your are or even what party you represent or district you are running in, but I agree with oblivious. Really, you don’t even know that the Speaker has a killing committee, which he stacks only with those personally committed to him and to which he sends all bills he personally doesn’t like to end up in the trash bin of history? Really?????
a special case exception for those GOPbots that have already violated Rule 101? (An extraordinary amount of leniency granted by the GOPprogrammers IMHO — what happened to the death penalty?)
Anywho, doesn’t apply to Bateman . . . the ruling on the field is overturned.
But as this diary is about the challenge that he will face in keeping his own caucus under control, such kill committees will be harder to maintain.
Come on. You only destroy your reputation more by such a silly response. The committee is stacked with personal supporters of his who are from heavily Republican Districts. Imagine, they even do this with the Rules Committee of the US House. It’s very common knowledge.
Such kill committees will be easy to maintain.
The chairmanships are handed out by the speaker.
I’m glad you’re running for office. Now do me a favor, will you? Spend the year listening to the legislature on the internet. Learn how it works.
In the long run, it will make you much more credible.
Harder does not mean impossible by any stretch. But as the OP points out, members of the GOP caucus are going to be doing some soul searching over the course of the next session. So he will need to carefully pick his appointments and hope that he still has the loyalty that he counts on. And whether he will retain the support of the House Republicans through the end of the session? I guess we’ll see. Just look how fast they turned on Rep. Stephens last year, who might have seen a primary regardless of the reapportionment outcome simply for supporting one single piece of legislation.
As for the legislative process, I am quite familiar with it, having served as the legislative liaison for multiple organizations over the past few years. I have testified at the capitol dozens of times and been a spokesman for various pieces of legislation at press conferences, on local radio, and at meetings of interest groups all across the state. I get that there’s more to the game than simply getting a majority support in each house. But I also know that political loyalties get shaky in a year like this one and strange things can happen.
PS – I like your Sig Line
Because that and four quarters might buy you a can of pop.
You should bone up on things before spouting off about them on the Internet. Stephens already had a primary opponent before the reapportionment maps were sent to the court. He announced a while ago.
And while you’re right that it’s possible Republican House members might relax their support for McNulty because they think he’s too tough on Democrats or isn’t moderate enough — in the same way it’s possible you’ll be elected to the House next year — it’s exceedingly unlikely.
Stephens lost support because she was seen as being too moderate. Republican leaders don’t lose support for holding the party line and sticking to their principles. If anything, McNulty risks getting tagged as a RINO if he wavers, not the other way around.
He can easily kill broadly popular Democratic legislation. Are his kill committee members personally loyal enough to stop wacky stuff coming from the right?
Does he support moderate legislation that would pass with help from the Dems (alienating part of his caucus) and hope they don’t claim the victory while he burnishes the GOP brand with the electorate? Does he go whole hog on the conservative agenda and drum up support from the base (harming moderate GOP candidates), hoping that something makes it through the Senate and the Governor’s office?
With his kill committee, he can easily obstruct anything at all. Trying to push an agenda will fracture his caucus as some swing to middle to win in newly competitive districts and others double down to appease primary-happy activists. Pure obstruction isn’t going to satisfy anybody.
Although nothing will likely top the farcical GOP gubernatorial effort of last year, let’s hope for an entertaining performance in 2012.
Pass the pop corn please.
and has been down this road, primaries create bitterness and divisiveness more often than not. They side track party activists from keeping their eye on the prize. Multiple primaries are going to turn into a full scale bloodletting.
Why in God’s name didn’t the Republicans take the first map when they had their chance instead of appealing it? They blew it here and have only themselves to blame and worse yet, they knew chances were good that it would end up this way.
They gambled and lost. Tough shit. Tough luck.
While I’d love to see a GOP meltdown as much as anyone, I think you are underscoring McNulty and the GOP just a bit. While some of the House GOPers may not be the brightest, I think McNulty and Stephens are pretty intelligent and have been effective leaders. They managed to keep a one-vote majority in line on just about all of the big divisive issues. And they did it without getting too much bad press.
I just don’t see the GOP shooting itself in the foot again like it did during the Governor’s race. They are smarter than that. Sure, reapportionment has made it difficult for them to hold on to their majority, but the general public isn’t exactly salivating over Democratic candidates either.
In the end I say it comes down to the Presidential election. If Obama cruises to victory then local Democrats will ride the wave. If the Presidential election becomes a nail-biter then the state House is a toss-up.
You are probably right. But don’t give Amy Stephens too much credit. This gem was in the Post this morning.
Certainly a primary between two concurrently serving GOP House members would be entertaining from my point of view, but this situation seems ripe for some backroom dealing to avoid such a situation. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see some GOPers finding themselves taking generous job offers from big-time donors.
I think a close elecction might actually help Democrats as the key to their victory is turnout among young and hispanic voters. I think Dems take the house unless the election becomes a blow-out for R’s.
McNulty’s back was against the wall as Speaker with no votes to spare. He is respected.
Don’t spoil the fun, though! Dehumanize McNulty and Stephens. Ride the Big Blue Lie Machine to victory!
can you be more foolish, more stupid?
it isn’t about smart. It is just as often about arrogant. Most republican politicos are awash in money. They know, fairly reliably, that they can shill for an industry or two (or several) and the rewards are there. The same can be said for dems and unions, but that pot of money comes from people, not profit.
I have observed that having a great deal of money at your disposal, in politics as elsewhere, can make the competent overconfident and the incompetent arrogant.
Some people never learn.
… but what is the possibility/what are the odds/is it even allowed that a few of the more moderate Republicans break ranks and support a Democrat for the speaker’s chair the last year of the term?
nothing like that is ever going to happen. Ever.
crazier stuff has happened.
I’m with BC. I’ll believe it when I see it.
but right now my sense is that the ratio of Colorado’s rarely-sighted Slightly Moderate Republican to the much more prolific and common species of Glowering Red, Butt-Hurt Republican is very, very low in this next legislature . . .
Besides, ArapaBOT already clued us a couple of times from his yesterday’s official talking points . . . (it’s OK if you didn’t catch it, few people have any desire to read his snivel) . . . on the worldview they’re projecting from the GOP circus tent this session — “partisan and vindictive.”
. . . I wouldn’t expect any crossover voting for the speakership.
He was elected for a two year term.
But I agree, I don’t think anyone has the will to actually make this kind of power play, from either party.
Will prompt some of the far-right candidates to rethink their re-election plans. Either by moderating their votes in the coming session, or bowing to (or being primaried by) a more moderate candidate. Otherwise, it could be a nice pickup seat for Dems.
In any case, it’ll be the GOP “majority” that will be wailing and gnashing their teeth this session. The frustration on our side will be that it’ll still be hard to get much work done with the current leadership in the House.
They truly believe that the majority of the public is on their side and that they will be re-elected. If they don’t, their handlers will take care of them in the Primary (Republican Rule 110). If they do, they’ll blame their losses of activist courts and Democrats lying about their record (Republican Rule 111).
GOP primaries don’t draw a lot of moderate voters. They will reinforce the radical right candidates.
So even though there will be cracks in the GOP majority (more or less depending on the issue), by the time the election is over and they lose their 1-seat “mandate”, they’ll been moaning that they need to be “even purer conservatives”.
McNulty is already a lame duck, is he? How can you claim these maps are fair when you’ve already decided the next election based on them?? Hmm?
The transparent gloating and dishonesty on the left today is sickening.
You would never gloat or be dishonest. Right.
Did you remember to scrape the “Sore Loserman” sticker off your bumper before you sold your SUV?
What is it with privileged White people making themselves out to be the victim? The Republicans are always blaming someone else rather than take responsibility:
– Liberals,
– Black People,
– Immigrants.
– Secularists
– Gays
– Commies
– French
There is always some OTHER person who is the problem.
What happened to the founding fathers delcaration of human rights? (Umm, once America got around to including women, non-property owners and 5/5’s of a black man)
When did Republicans stop believing in America for all?
When did Republicans become willing to destroy the country rather than fix the economy?
switch parties?
Any possibilities?
They are so unhappy with the terrible job their reapportionment commissioners did, a good number of them a ready to jump to the Democrats. Why stick with such an inept group if you can join the winners?
The “red” is the burning tip of your “green” joint. Keep dreaming.
You really don’t get sarcasm, do you?
What a relief, dear boy.