President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Kamala Harris
(R) Donald Trump
80%↑
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) V. Archuleta
98%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Marshall Dawson
95%
5%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(R) Jeff Hurd
(D) Adam Frisch
52%↑
48%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(D) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank
(D) River Gassen
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) John Fabbricatore
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen
(R) Sergei Matveyuk
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
60%
40%
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
September 06, 2006 11:11 PM UTC
18 Comments
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The fact that Musgrave isn’t above 47% with voters by now knowing her quite well is not a great sign for her. However, Angie still needs to close the deal with undecided voters, and also peel away a few of Musgrave’s less radical still-supporters.
Can’t just count on the Eidsness Factor. Are either up on TV?
Thanks to pacified at SquareState for doing the obligatory partisan breakdown analysis…
The CO-07 poll above has a partisan breakdown of 39 R, 31 I, and 30 D. The real numbers, however, are 31.6 R, 34.6 I, 33.5 D, leaving Ricky a more distinct loser than the raw poll numbers would indicate.
In CO-04, the poll has 50 R, 25 I, 25 D. But again, it over-samples Republicans; the real registration is 40.3 R, 33.9 I, 25.4 D.
The poll also fails to include any of the third-party candidates, in any of the races.
This is some half assed polling? Where’s Eidsness in CD-4?
What company did this polling?
Does this mean Marilyn Musgrave has a real Republican problem?
I’d say Musgrave has a bit of a Republican problem. Epecially considering that Independents aren’t all voting for Angie (yet). If the poll is 50% GOP and yet Musgrave only gets 47% of the total poll, she’s got a “Republican problem”.
for the clarification. I was disappointed in the CD7 numbers until I saw it.
There are 11 other repug races where the democrat is leading by a larger margin then Ed. This makes the fact that Ed is at least a million dollars behind a big deal. I hope Ed wins but I think its nieve to downplay that kind of financial hole.
Or all of those pollsters out there who regularly rate this the “top race in the nation”.
Try the Cook Report, DCCC, NRCC, and most of the professional election forecasters. I’m not talking about margin – I’m talking about “hot races” according to professional analysis.
the poll you cited undercut your main point. If Ed was in fact the # one race then he would have the largest margin, yet your own poll shows 11 other democrats with larger margins then Ed’s. I’m not saying its not going to be an interesting race, but a $1,000,000 deficit can erase a two point lead easily!
and pulling teenagers out of high school, arming them and sending them off to border patrol.
Neither the Cook Report or the DCCC ranks congressional races 1 through whatever. The DCCC has CD-7 listed as a second wave race, again clearly NOT the #1 race in the country and the Cook report ranks CD-7 along with about a dozen other cd races as toss up. The only people who rank races 1-whatever are lazy reports who really don’t know what they are talking about.
I just have to say once again, to have spent a million dollars in the primary, including prime time TV and only be up a couple of points to a guy that hasn’t been on the air at all yet?!?!?!?!
That is good news for O’Donnell and bad news for Perlmutter.
ignoring the fact that Ed also has had nearly $1 mil spent AGAINST him while ROD hasn’t had a penny spent against him.
Ed will win this comfortably. As soon as the ads outlining RODs desires to abolish social security and station 17 year-olds along our border as patrol agents hit the airwaves, and they will, his numbers will drop lower than Bush’s…
Has Little Ricky figured out where he stands on social security? Is he going to run as a principled conservative and stick to his guns on advocating abolition of social security? Or will he follow in the footsteps of Both Ways and flip flop on this “youthful indiscretion of a brain fart?” And what about his strange “Boys-To-Men” initiative: send high s chool seniors to guard the border……..
11 years later, I am glad I am not in your political word, where no one ever changes his mind. I’m sure we aren’t going to here about any issues that Perlmutter has pulled a Kerry on. He has been steadfast in his positions.
Yeah . . . Kerry was the first politican in history to ever change an issue position. Typical Democrat – just sucked the integrity right out of politics didn’t he?
Actually, what really happened was that Kerry was just the most recent presidential candidate so ruthlessly smeared in that fashion. Just yesterday I saw a clip of the president barking “Nothing!” at a reporter who asked him what he thought the connection between 9/11 and Iraq was. That’s a bit different response than the dozens of times that the president implied that Saddam’s government directly colluded with Al Queda. But whatever, we all know only weak-willed slimy Democrats do stuff like that, right? Gimmie a break.
Anyway, on topic – A lot of Republicans I know aren’t too pleased with ROD. He’s just not a strong candidate and his positions are pretty whacky even by conservative standards. He’s made a career by espousing some seriously out-there opinions as a conservative idealogue (an easy way to climb the ladder of conservative patronage – just ask Ann Coultier), and now it’s causing some problems for him. Note to any young people thinking that it’s an easy career road to ingratiate yourself to the conservative establishment by writing nutty but amusing far-right propaganda masquerading as academic work – don’t do it if you have any thoughts about running for office one day.
He’s not a talented campaigner, and as bad as his old writing looks, I’d say his completely unethical fundraising is even worse. Has everybody forgotten about the fact that he held a fundraiser headlining the director of the EPA? That’s just gross misconduct and the Republicans would be howling for Perlmutter’s blood if he raised money using a federal official. I guess that that kind of bad behavior is so standard for the GOP these days that most people aren’t too alarmed by it.
Combine all that with the fact that ROD has tried to posture as a ‘new-blood’ Republican that’s not beholden to the White House, yet accepted multiple fundraising stops from Bush and Cheney (not to mention the parity of their stances on all the issues), and the guy’s record becomes cannon fodder.
Even a strong GOP candidate without a bad record like O’Donnell’s would be looking at a hard rode against Perlmutter this year. Make no mistake, registered Dems have a slight advantage in the district (as do women), and the GOP base is pissed off right now. ROD is going to somehow have prove to be an enormously skilled campaigner (does anyboyd believe this is the case?) in the very near future if he’s going to even have a shot.