Colorado Republicans Love Them Some Newt

UPDATE: The other shoe drops today, though, matchups from PPP:

As weak as Obama is in Colorado, if the Republicans nominate Newt Gingrich it doesn’t look like it matters. Obama leads Gingrich 50-42 in the state, including a whooping 56-32 advantage with independents. Gingrich is a reviled figure with only 32% of voters seeing him favorably to 55% with a negative opinion, including a 25/59 spread with independents.

Republicans can win Colorado next year- they just have to nominate Mitt Romney if they want to do it. If he was the GOP candidate it would be a toss up in the state, as he trails Obama only 47-45. Where Gingrich trails by 24 points with independents, Romney has only a 12 point deficit. Where Gingrich wins over only 11% of Democrats, Romney gets 14%. And even with Republicans where Gingrich gets 82% of his own party’s vote, Romney gets 84%.

This is the trend we’re seeing in our general election polling. Democrats and independents are much more inclined to vote for Romney than Gingrich.  And even though Republican voters like Gingrich much better than Romney overall, there are fewer Republicans reluctant to vote for Romney in the general election than there are who are hesitant to vote for Newt.  The GOP’s move toward supporting Gingrich is seriously endangering its chances of winning in the fall. [Pols emphasis]

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We didn’t get a chance to get to this yesterday, but a new PPP poll on the GOP Presidential field shows that Colorado Republicans love them some Newt Gingrich. From Colorado Independent:

The poll shows Gingrich up 37-18 over Romney. Michele Bachmann is third with 9 percent and Ron Paul comes in at 6 percent. It wasn’t that long ago that Texas Governor Rick Perry was thought to be leading in Colorado, but according to this poll he is down to 4 percent.

In September, the last time PPP polled in Colorado, Perry led Romney 31-18. A Bloomberg poll released at about the same time also had Perry leading in Colorado. Gingrich was considered a fringe candidate at that time.

The polling firm noted that Gingrich seems to have picked up virtually all of Herman Cain’s supporters.

The most interesting part of this poll in our view is the fact that presumed frontrunner Mitt Romney has completely plateaued — he’s pulling the same 18 percent that he received in September.

31 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. Gray in Mountains says:

    might not be the same 18%. He might have lost 2% with his courageous stand for/against ____ and gained another 2% with his courageous stand against/for______

  2. 20th Maine says:

    A lot can happen in that time.  It’s well within reason that Newt implodes during that time.  It’s obvious Romney is taking Newt more seriously than the others.  He’s just now beginning to spend his money.

    Meanwhile, Mitt’s got a much stronger GOTV operation, everywhere, than Newt.  That in itself isn’t going to win any primaries, but it sure helps.

    The early states will likely have a big affect on what happens in CO on Feb 7 too.

    • Middle of the Road says:

      In politics, everything can change in 24 hours, forget 2 months. A whole lot can happen between now and February.

      What I don’t get and would like to get some honest feedback from a Republican on is why Mitt’s numbers haven’t really budged in months, except to move down instead of up. In any state.

      I have no doubt if he becomes the nominee that Republicans will overwhelmingly vote for him. What I highly doubt is how enthused they are about him as their nominee.

      And I’d like to know if it’s for the reasons I’m thinking–that he has switched, flip flopped, changed his mind (pick your phrase) on a host of major issues and policies and the base is turned off by that. I know as a Democrat, when John Edwards did it, it was a huge turnoff for me as a primary voter.  

    • Haven’t seen you around in a while, 20th.  Agreed on everything you say here.

      Newt’s biggest liability (aside from being Newt) is the implosion of his campaign earlier this year.  It’s crippled his organization and his fundraising.

  3. Pita says:

    He’s supposedly paying if off quite nicely these days  – now if I can only remember where I read that this morning, I’ll post a link.

  4. LakewoodTodd says:

    Is whether any of these candidates can hold on to the “anyone but Romney” vote. So far, all of the likely candidates have had a crack at it. I don’t think Santorum will ever get his turn at it. He’s just too out there with no upside. Paul is too far out there (in some good ways) for Republican primary voters. And Huntsman just can’t seem to make himself visible to the primary votes except as a RINO. So, as I’ve been saying for a long time, this is Romney’s to lose. I just wonder if he will go limping into Tampa and if we’ll see a brokered convention. What a disaster for the Republican message machine if that happens.

    • Maybe if all the candidates had retained a core 10-15% following, they’d have a brokered convention.  Once the caucuses and primaries get going though, I don’t see any resurgent Not-Romney’s coming back to the fore.  Whoever’s sitting in the Not-Romney chair after the first few events is the designated Not-Romney for the rest of the campaign, I think.  And that will minimize the chance for a brokered convention.

  5. VanDammer says:

    this just proves he’ll say anything to get a rise out of an audience

    Newt: I Will Nominate John Bolton For Secretary Of State

    Newt has already posited cutting off Iran’s fuel supplies and sabotaging its sole oil refinery (both outright acts of hostile war actions) and he’s even said the U.S. should bomb Iran’s facilities to prevent it becoming a nuclear power, but only as a ‘last recourse’.

    Newt’s & pet chickenshit Bolton’s Iranian  ideas would have catastrophic consequences if they ever came to bear.  Newt is dangerous …

  6. Ed Rollins says:

    Ummm, the last time PPP polled CO was August, not September. Google is your friend, Indy shills. Romney was at 22% then, not 18%.

    Pols — you might want to fact check the Indy before you print yet another one of their error-ridden posts.

    • ajb says:

      http://www.publicpolicypolling

      PPP surveyed 568 usual North Carolina Republican primary voters and 500 usual Colorado GOP primary voters from December 1st  to 4th.

      • Ed Rollins says:

        Learn to read ajb, as in the second paragraph of the cited Indy article. Then formulate a response. I’ll wait.

        • droll says:

          PPP cited the four point difference in the current survey.

          PPP last polled Colorado almost four months ago, at the height of the Bachmann surge and just before Perry’s entry into the race. Since then, Romney is down four points…

          Complain at them.

          Curiously snarky reaction for being a month off when the last poll doesn’t really matter in terms of being either three or four months ago. At any rate, ajb is correct in this case that the very last poll was conducted within the last week.

          So maybe you can read, but your concepts seem off. Your comment could very easily be read to mean you were calling the current poll old. Hooked on the English language: Learn to write?

    • ajb says:

      Not August, not September.

      Write much?

  7. softie says:

    It would be really neat to see a list of which Colorado politicos have endorsed which candidate. That may already exist, in which case I missed it.

  8. raymond1 says:

    ArapaGOP normally is all over any post about the GOP primary. Suddenly his silence is deafening. Could it possibly be that he’s feeling a little sheepish about his super-arrogant declarations that it DEFINITELY will be Romney and that we’re all idiots for thinking it might not be MittMan?

    • DavidThi808 says:

      ArapaGOP has happily posted blatant lies numerous times in the past. My guess is his controller isn’t sure what to say right now.

    • ArapaGOP says:

      raymond, Colorado Republicans at all levels are committed to a Romney victory. Mitt Romney is the only candidate with the organization to win this state. Gingrich is just another flash in the pan, and we’re not going to get off track.

      • ClubTwitty says:

        I can’t hear you!  Everyone agrees and everyone LOVES Willard.  He’s just where he wants to be, sinking in the polls.  

      • It’s obviously why polls are reporting that Romney is now in second place here in Colorado.  That commitment at all levels to Romney just shines through…

      • ClubTwitty says:


        Newt Gingrich is the clear front-runner for the 2012 Republican nomination — and the biggest beneficiary of Herman Cain’s departure from the race. Mitt Romney, again, holds steady with about a quarter of GOP primary voters in his camp.A Fox News poll released Thursday shows Gingrich up 13 percentage points since mid-November. Cain suspended his campaign on December 3.

        In the latest snapshot of the race, Gingrich receives the backing of 36 percent of GOP primary voters. That’s up from 23 percent last month — and is three times the 12 percent he had in late October. It also represents the largest share of the vote that a candidate has received in six months of Fox News polling. The previous high was 26 percent for Romney over the summer.

        [Emphasis Twitty]

        Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politic

        I have said it before and I will say it again: Poor Mittens.  No Love from his would be subjects.  What’s a Royalist to do when corporations cannot yet vote?  

  9. dwyer says:

    The new target for the republicans is the “welfare queens.” There is a video of a woman with 15 kids demanding that the government take care of her…..boyles begins with the repub talking points most ams…and this is getting a lot of enraged callers…loaded with hate and misinformation (ie.” the democrats stopped workfare from passing.”)

    Frank Lutz wins again….I think he tried to target “government workers” as the parasites causing the debt crisis….the workers fought back; the Occupy people got too much support and so now the repubs are looking for a new target….and found an old one…as old as newt…

    It is the lazy welfare queens.  I think this will go.

  10. Meiner49er says:

    Up here it seems it’s the left that’s most excited about Newt, not the right.  Progressives like to fight candidates from the past, and everything Newt is doing is about trying to recapture that “End of History” moment in the early 90s.  Newt likes him some counter-factual history; a bit too much for ‘reality.’  Too bad for him…that moment is gone.

    Newt will be gone, too, by the time Colorado Repub Primaries come round.  

    If not, it means that local grassroots organizing and ground campaigns are irrelevant in a national political space dominated by 24-7 spin, and I don’t think there’s really any evidence, polling or otherwise, to prove that you can spin your way into office anywhere without a ground game.

    I the end, while the left may like to fantasize about an easy victory in a Newt-Barack showdown, the victory we want is the one that goes to Mitt because he’s got the better organization.  The only way we win is by out-organizing the corporate personhood money spin machine.

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