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November 12, 2021 01:56 PM UTC

"The Big Line" Is not a Poll, and Other Notes

  • 17 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

 

Republican U.S. Senate candidate Eli Bremer was a guest on something called “The Richard Randall Show” earlier this week. We’re noting Bremer’s right-wing radio appearance here only because Colorado Pols and “The Big Line” were an early topic during the discussion. We listened to the interview and transcribed the relevant sections below…

During his introduction of Bremer, host Richard Randall opened things up with some bellyaching about “The Big Line,” which he may or may not think represents actual scientific polling results: 

RANDALL: I was doing a little bit of research on you and Greg Lopez, and I got on to “The Big Line” by ColoradoPols.com, and they’re ranking the odds for various races…

…You know, I’m looking at this poll, and it was November 5, and I think it’s B.S. And I think one of the things that I think, a lot of folks on the left, or even left-leaning media do, is that they try to make it sound as though, you know, Greg Lopez doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in hell. This Eli Bremer, hell would have to freeze over before he would ever have a chance against a great Senator like Michael Bennet who has done so much for the State of Colorado and for the nation…they’ve got him at 70%, and then they’ve got you at 20%, and then they have a bunch of other candidates who go from 20, 10, 10, 5…

I think sometimes they do that because they want people to think, these guys have no chance of winning. I’m just going to stay home. Why do I even bother with this stuff? What would you say to somebody who is starting to have that attitude?

First of all, “The Big Line” has been a feature of ColoradoPols.com since our inception in 2004. It is most definitely NOT A POLL, nor have we ever pretended otherwise. Here’s what it has said at the bottom of “The Big Line” for more than a decade:

It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win a General Election based on inside information and our analysis of that information.

“The Big Line” is our analysis of the changing odds of the most prominent races in Colorado each major election cycle. It’s just our opinion.

Love it or hate it, we’re usually correct. History bears this out.

As for Randall’s suggestion that Colorado voters are deciding whether or not to vote every year based on what it says on “The Big Line”… well, that’s probably true.

Also, Greg Lopez absolutely does not have a snowball’s chance in hell of being elected Governor of Colorado.

Let’s continue with the interview…

BREMER: Well, I think it’s…first, you’ve got to remember where it came from. That’s not even left-leaning. That’s a leftist blog website. It’s not a poll — it’s their opinion.

The other thing I think that is really interesting to point out is that in the 2020 election, Republicans did not lose. We won 100% of the, quote, “toss up” congressional seats around the country — one of which was won by my friend Mike Garcia, who’s the first Republican in California to gain a congressional seat in 22 years. He’s a friend and supporter. But that shows us, when 100% of the toss-ups are won by Republicans, that the ratings systems are off. 

My rule of thumb is that the ratings systems are always ticked one to the left. So, if they say it leans Dem, which is where the Colorado Senate is now — I’m not sure where they put the governor — but on the Senate they say it leans Dem…that’s actually probably a toss-up. By the time it’s a toss-up it’s usually a Leans R. 

And then, polling, if you look historically at the Real Clear Politics average, in many cases it’s about 5 points skewed to the left. I think that the polling and the ratings are largely controlled by liberals, and they…you can just look back historically. Don’t take my word for it — look back historically and then adjust in your own mind accordingly. So, take it with a grain of salt.

Kudos to Bremer for pointing out that “The Big Line” is just our opinion of things. The rest of his argument is a bit muddled…

 

If Republicans won “100%” of the toss-up races for Congress in 2020, then Democrats would not currently have majority control of that chamber. What Bremer probably means to say is that Republicans won 100% of the races that they won.

Actually, what Bremer really means to say is that you shouldn’t pay attention to people, polls, news articles or anything else suggesting that Bremer is not totally awesome and won’t be elected to the U.S. Senate in 2022. We get that Bremer needs to say this in order to keep his campaign afloat, but he’s gonna need a lot more than 5 points to get close to Bennet. Here’s polling data released this month from The Rocky Mountaineer:

Via The Rocky Mountaineer (Nov. 2021)

 

And here are Bremer’s favorability numbers:

Via The Rocky Mountaineer (Nov. 2021)

 

Speaking of bad numbers, Bremer says this near the end of the interview:

I think there’s 39 [or] 40,000 articles written about me.

Um, not so much. If you Google “Eli Bremer,” the results generate approximately 41,000 results, which is not the same thing as having “40,000 articles written about me.” If you Google “Richard Randall,” you get about 110,000 results; if this were comparable to press coverage, you wouldn’t be asking, Who in the hell is Richard Randall?

It’s Friday afternoon and we don’t have a good way to wrap up this post, so we’ll just stop here.

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17 thoughts on ““The Big Line” Is not a Poll, and Other Notes”

  1. It is fun watching you freak out about Eli.

    The Dems have their ultra intelligent people in office (Jared and Phil).  The GOP has a decent chance of getting one too next cycle.

    I’m looking forward to Eli hopefully and plausibly shocking a lot of people this cycle. 

      1. I really think we should have a poll ( and a pool) on who wins the R primary.

        I’d like Bremer to win, ( only the primary) because he isn’t as batshit nuts as Hanks. ( Bar too low?) Benett still wins comfortably- Colorado votes blue and we still have the gold standard in election access and security.

        If Hanks wins the primary, he gets a platform to keep spreading Q nonsense. On the other hand, he taints all Republicans. Double edged sword.

        So closer to the R primary ( June 2022), if Pols doesn’t do a poll, I will. Maybe we can figure out a way to anonymously do a pool with some minor reward. 
         

        1. Since I'm with Benett all the way, I'm pulling for Hanks in the primary. Republicans should choose all the wack-nuts and really let their freak flag fly. 

    2. Going to be a marathon … and Bremer trained for modern Pentathlon.

      2014 Cory was helped by Cambridge Analytica and about $3 million from the NRA as "independent" expenditures. He won by 48.2-46.3%, about 40,000 votes.

      2020 Cory, as an incumbent and with a head start, was able to raise $26 million — but was outraised by Hick's $44 million. Cory was helped by "independent" expenditures for him ($3 million) and opposed to Hick ($18 million) [net $21 million] versus Hick's $6 million for, $10.5 million opposed to Cory [net $16.5 million].  He lost by 53.5-44.2%, about 300,000 votes,

      Bremer formally announced for 2022 in early August, after being rumored as a candidate for some additional months.

      • so far has not been an overwhelming force in fund-raising:  as of the end of September, he'd raised $253,838, spent $44,472, and had $209,366 on hand. 91% of what was raised came from large donations.
      • nor is his presence deterring other candidates:  the field includes "Deborah Flora… state Rep. Ron Hanks,… former city councilor Gino Campana, former oil and gas executive Erik Aadland, Army veteran Juli Henry and one-time congressional candidate Peter Yu."

      Blue and getting Bluer.

    3. I was looking around for the "freak out" you mentioned. I didn't sense any panic anywhere, but maybe bringing up his name counts.

      It may be time for a "Come to Jesus" event for the GQP/GOP. Until the parties' schizophrenia is addressed and resolved, Republicans will have trouble winning.

      It is nearly a year until the next election. Do you think the Republican party has finished self -destructing and is on the mend?

      What, perchance, might give one that impression?

       

      1. I was looking around for the "freak out" you mentioned. I didn't sense any panic anywhere, but maybe bringing up his name counts.
         

        . . . "Owning the libs" post-Ttump just ain't anymore what it used to be . . .

         

    4. If he's anything like his uncle, he'll do just fine in the GOP.  Of course, that means very little in the general.  And I'm fine with that.  At least he has the reserves to fall back on.  

  2. Bremer says Real Clear Politics skews left. Interesting. I’ve thought that it skews right by about the same 5 points. 

    Bremer: “that’s a leftist blog site….” Obviously, he hasn’t spent much time here or he would know there are a variety of political persuasions present.

    But he does bring to mind that oldie, but goodie, song written by the late Laura Nyro: “Eli’s Coming.” 

  3. If Pols truly were a "leftist blog site," wouldn't it be telling readers how close Republicans are to winning in order to get out the Dem vote? Clearly, Randall does not understand how blogs work.

    1. Besides CHB, my favorite center-right contributor was Laughing Boy.  He/she had a great sense of humor and occasionally made sense.  Pols only appears Leftist because the right side of the equation is composed of lightweights who post a nasty and then disappear.  You can't have a serious discussion with ghosts.

  4. Sometimes it's hard to tell if they're really as dumb as they sound or if they merely act that way to rile up the rubes who listen to them. Either one is pretty awful.

    1. It's my understanding that it's really tough to listen to anything when you are on a ventilator.  There are going to be fewer rubes listening to these jackasses come the end of 2022.  Talking about an own goal error.

      1. A man I know, a bass player I used to perform with, was just taken off a ventilator…and not for a good reason.. Knowing his attitude and political persuasion, I doubt if he was vaccinated.

        I feel sorry for those close to him. 

  5. Percentages reflect Colorado Pols’ estimated chances of winning in the 2022 General Election in Colorado. 

    The percentages cannot total to more than 100%. They could total to less than 100%, indicating that someone not listed could win.

    I believe I had to make the same point years ago when the Big Line used odds instead of percentages.

     

    1. Old Time Dem speaks eloquently for the 25 percent of Pols’ readers who are good at math.  But Alva is the champion for the 86 percent of us who suck at it and Gertie represents the great majority of us — 12 percent — who don’t care one way or another.

  6. "Such-and-such must be a leftist web site because they aren't blowing sunshine up my ass 24-7." That's the modern Trumpist criterion for determining the political persuasion of anything or anyone these days.

    Seriously.

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