How Low Is Mitt Romney's Ceiling?

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by: Colorado Pols

Last week was not good to Republican Presidential contender Herman Cain, who tried (and failed) to spin his way out of a litany of prior sexual harassment claims. You would think that Cain’s problems, combined with the apparent cratering of Rick Perry weeks earlier, would be a boon for Mitt Romney.

Often described as the candidate to beat in the GOP race, Romney remains stuck in place in national polls – he is at 24 percent in the Post-ABC survey – despite the fact that one of his main challengers, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, has stumbled and several high-profile potential candidates decided not to enter the race to challenge President Obama.

Romney’s lack of traction carries well beyond the head-to-head matchups with other competitors. It also is reflected on discrete issues and candidate attributes. Considerable numbers of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents consider the health plan that Romney signed into law in Massachusetts and his Mormon religion as strikes against him.

The survey tested the candidates on six attributes or characteristics. Romney has a sizable lead in just one: One-third of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents say he has the best chance of anyone in the field to defeat Obama in 2012.

While Romney may be viewed as the most likely Republican to defeat President Obama, there’s no getting around the fact that GOP voters just really don’t like him that much — which is one reason why his campaign is trying to stick a fork into Perry once and for all.

It’s worth noting that at this point in 2007, polls showed former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani to be the Republican favorite for President. Giuliani, of course, flamed out in spectacularly-invisible fashion; he didn’t so much implode as he just dissolved. This new poll will only increase the debate as to just how low Romney’s ceiling might be. While he isn’t going to fade away like Giuliani, there’s a very real question about Romney’s best-case scenario. Is 25-30% basically as good as Romney can do with Republicans?

13 thoughts on “How Low Is Mitt Romney’s Ceiling?”

Aristotle says:

November 7, 2011 at 9:32 pm

A-GOP will soon be here to tell us who Romney’s going to be elected president in one year.

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nancycronk says:

November 7, 2011 at 9:34 pm

n/t

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1. DaftPunk says:
  
  November 8, 2011 at 2:59 am
  
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redstateblues says:

November 7, 2011 at 10:31 pm

New Hampshire seems like a pretty good place for him to get a win, but if he can’t get any solid momentum going it’s going to be tough going forward for Mittens.

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1. MADCO says:
  
  November 8, 2011 at 12:06 am
  
  and if anyone to his right is still in the race, SC is a lost cause. Florida? I think he does well.
  
  And I have no idea what the GOTP primary calendar looks like after that.
  
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  1. raymond1 says:
    
    November 8, 2011 at 1:01 am
    
    * the non-Romney 75% of the party has been flailing from one righty nut to the next — Bachmann to Perry to Cain
    
    * if Cain collapses (quite possible), his support will go somewhere, and those folks already have cycled through flings with Perry & Bachmann
    
    * Gingrich is marginally up in recent polls and, if all the nuttiest righties collapse (Perry, Bachmann, Cain), Gingrich could be at 20-30% in IA, good for first of second — which would make him the main non-Romney alternative, and thus the winner of SC
    
    * In a 2-person Gingrich/Romney race, Romney will be better-funded but Gingrich more in sync with the conservative mood of the party
    
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2. MADCO says:
  
  November 8, 2011 at 12:10 am
  
  But he is going to be the nominee and the general will be something like
  
  Flopney: Obama is a good guy, he’s just in over his head. Ojt is fine for most Americans, but for the Economist in Chief, been there done that is the better choice.
  
  This appeals to ABO and some indies. And, of course, in the general, it’s not about NY or CA. It’s Florida, Ohio and WIsconsin. (and maybe INdiana, Virginia and Colorado)
  
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  1. redstateblues says:
    
    November 8, 2011 at 1:53 am
    
    but the path forward is not a pretty one. Fortunately for Mitt, historically the GOP has tended to go with the candidate they think has the best chance of winning. I don’t know if that’s necessarily going to be the case this year though.
    
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  2. Gilpin Guy says:
    
    November 8, 2011 at 3:25 am
    
    The Tea Party hates this pompous ass. Even his personhood support sounded opportunistic. He isn’t in the drivers seat by a long shot.
    
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    1. MADCO says:
      
      November 8, 2011 at 6:25 pm
      
      when you’re the presumption by default.
      
      Flopney is opportunistic – most voters will get over that.
      
      He has flip-flopped – most voters will get over that.
      
      He’s not that far right – most right leaning voters will get over that.
      
      The tea party wing of the GOTP prefers ~~Buck~~ someone else. Not so sure the rest of the party is dumb enough to follow them down the path of least electability.
      
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The realist says:

November 7, 2011 at 11:29 pm

jumped into the race (no shortage of egos in the GOP, ya know).

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1. DavidThi808 says:
  
  November 8, 2011 at 6:19 am
  
  They would not be able to get on several state ballots.
  
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caroman says:

November 8, 2011 at 12:48 am

It’s hard to gain support while trying to be all things to all people.

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