As always, vote on your best guess – not on your hopes and desires. If you were placing a bet, where would you put your money?
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hold both houses and by wider margins in each…
At the start of the year, I thought the Dems would be lucky to keep even one of the two houses. Given that Bill Ritter is now opening a double-digit over Both Ways, while Both Ways is dazzling us with fictional stats about abortions in the African-American community while his running mate is shining a spotlight on livestock sexual abuse, I too think that the Dems may pick up a Senate seat or two (probably Lew Entz or Token Jones), while holding the House at 35 seats.
is making a strong run at Bill Crane up here in HD 27. I think she could be the Debbie Benefield of of ’06…
could be more than 1 – maybe 2-4 – in the House. The interesting question is, with the Chafee fight, the Lasmborn fight in CD-5, the Burns fight in Montana and other places where safe republican seats are at risk, whether the trickle down of money to downticket republicans will be much smaller than the past? If so, the potential is for a big down ticket year for Dems.
And the one who is probably most at risk right now is Lew Entz because he was raising no money until quite recently because he was told that Trailhead would provide, and now Trailhead needs to squander all of its $$$ on Beauprez’ disasterous campaign.
If the state GOP had brains, they would do what first providers do in medical emergencies: triage. separate the races which are already won and spend no more time or money on those (e.g., Suthers), those which are hopeless and also should be abandoned (Both Ways), and focus on the races which can be won or lost (Entz, Knoedler, Token Jones, as well as close House races, SOS, and state Treasurer).
to see how the Trailhead (Booze, Oil, Insurance millionaires) are squirming right now. They will say and do anything to get puppet candidate’s elected (Jones, Kuh-needler, Owen).
Alan Philip, along with Both Ways Bill Owens, Plea-Bargaining Pete Coors, Oil-bathing Bruce Benson, will be known as the most corrupt and greedy in Coloado History.
In House District 22 in Southern Jeffco Haberkorn has a real shot. The district has an ever increasing performance for Dem candidates and Jayson is really energizing the base. Plus, I know the Republicans are worried because they put in a rather nasty push-poll the past couple of days. How many straws can you grasp at until your hands are too full?!
a reality check, or some therapy, for the one person who voted that Republicans would take both the house and senate.
But then Alan Philp maintains that the Rs will beat Bernie Buescher and Buffie MacFayden.
Maybe Alan cast that vote.
some seats may be traded between the two parties. The net will remain 35-30. (I think Joe Rice is going to pull an upset and take 24/7 Stengel’s seat in H.D. 38!) I think Buescher survives. I think Dave Owens may knock off the Dem up in Greeley. And Gary Lindstrom really screwed things up with his quixotic campaign for Guv followed by his vacating his House seat. I’m afraid that the rodeo jackass rider from Leadville may be returning to the state House.
Come on – he is at least always good for some humorous quotes during the session. I think the voters in Leadville just send him down here to chuckle at his antics.
And I even voted for him once…..
Joe will win that seat.
However, you are wrong about Chlouber. That is a brand new district for him. Lake county is the only part of the district that he has represented in the past (his home – sort of, if you don’t count his house in Denver – county). But Lake is the smallest portion of the district. Something like 4K regisetered voters. The Summit and Eagle portions far overwhelm Lake, and those are not the kind of voters who will find Ken’s brand of good old boy Okie cowboy BS.
Chlouber’s opponent is well connected and liked in the Summit and Eagle portions, fits the district better and has Mark Udall helping him.
Chlouber loses.
Riesberg holds the Greeley seat.
The question is whether Green can hold her Jeffco seat. In the end, I think she does but I rate it a toss up.
I think the House is Dem by either 35 or 36.
has anyone taken a good look at how poorly R legislative candidates are doing at raising hard money?
Some of these guys (Entz and Kester) seem to think they don’t have a race on their hands, or maybe they are counting on Trailhead to win it for them with soft money.
They WERE counting on Trailhead, but candidates have started to get the calls….. money is being diverted to the BB race and the Leg Candidates are out of luck.
New reports will be in soon, but rumor today is that Bob is expected to report at 45% below their target for this period.
I think Trailhead is in a bit of a quandry with not too many options to spend money. Governor not looking good, too many seats to pick up in the House, not good options in the Senate.
I have seen ads for state senate candidates and heard them for governor and Suthers. Seems like they are spreading the wealth at this point, so I’m not sure I buy yet that Trailhead is going to funnel everything into the governor’s race.
BTW why are they spending money on Suthers?
they have at least one big win this year? The quickest way to lose your donors is to spend all your money on losers. BTW, saw something that said latest Trailhead filings showed about $950K raised, $932K spent, $18K on hand. That sound even close to reasonable?
I haven’t seen the reports, but if your figures our correct I would assume that the $900K spent is TV time bought for the fall, especially since they are limited to sending corporate dollars before a certain date.
Colo. Dad: Interesting you would know that little known point. You sure you’re not a hack in disguise?
The FEC just voted 3-3 to uphold the voting rules that would prevent an individual/groups from running ads within 60 days of the election.
no matter how much trailhead may have and be able to spend, at some point, candidates need to be able to spend hard dollars as well. You cannot win a campaign with soft money only.
many of these leg candidates are going to find it tough to raise money this late in the game.
Less than 10K hard dollars in a senate or house campaign is not going to cut it.
I also think that a lot of donors who might otherwise have been counted on for hard dollars earlier (for R legislators) have been tapped out by trailhead, disappointed/disgusted with BWB, and ready to throw their hands up and not give a damn.
They are reading the handwriting on the wall, and won’t throw good money after bad on a sinking GOP ship in Colorado. They have to be looking at the political operation of trailhead, BWB and the legislative campaigns and shaking their heads in disgust. They know a failed operation when they see one.
Why one big win? Wouldn’t they rather have three wins (SOS, Treasurer, and AG), even if they are not big wins. Suthers’ race is over, but both SOS and Treasurer’s races are still very competitive.
When Ken Gordon and Cary Kennedy win on election night, they should stand up and first thank Alan Phipps and Trailhead for underfunding Coffman and Hillman’s races while squandering their resources on Suthers and Both Ways!
The Bush administration will pull down Republican votes nationwide and BWB will pull down votes in the state here. And most Republican candidates are just one “Macaca” statement away from destroying their own campaign.
Boy this election is going to be fun!!!!!
that magical “Macaca” moment which all GOP candidates live in fear of…..