May 26, 2011 01:37 AM UTC

The Middle East in flux

• 12 Comments
• by: Ray Springfield

       I attended the 2011 AIPAC conference in which both President Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke,  The world knows that last Thursday President gave a speech which ignited controversy by focusing on the 1967 borders as a negotiating starting point while ignoring the fact that that he also mentioned land swaps.

     To begin, I’ll discuss those borders. Prior to the 1967 borders, Israeli did not occupy the Sinai dessert. It has not since 1978. Prior to 1967 Israel did not occupy the Gaza strip. Israel unilaterally withdrew from Gaza a few years ago.

Jerusalem from 1948 to 1967 was ruled by the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. The UN partition had proposed that Jerusalem be an international city. Although Jordan is ruled by Bedouin Hashemite tribes, the majority of its population is Palestinian. In 1974 and ’75 King Hussein cracked down on Black September killing roughly 25 thousand Palestinians and banished the PLO. By the late eighties, he renounced Hashemite claims to the West Bank and to East Jerusalem. Jordan has no desire to rule neither West Bank nor Jerusalem. Negotiating then, does not involve the parties which were in play in 1967.The landscape has changed.

      Israel is prepared to withdraw roughly 70 thousand settlers in small settlements of the West Bank while it would incorporate larger settlements which ring Jerusalem into the Jewish State. This is logical if Israel would agree to land swaps of current Israeli territory. For example, some of this territory near Gaza would permit Gaza to expand its infrastructure.

Samples of possible borders that the Israelis would be willing to discuss can be found at www. DayanCenter.org.

      The Palestinians will not negotiate on this point as they want Jerusalem to be their Capitol. Under Hashemite control, free access to the Temple Mount was not granted. There is no assurance that this would change. For Jews, Christians, and Muslims of both Shiia and Sunni sects to have access to Holy places in Jerusalem,Israel must maintain control of East Jerusalem. Israel is  the only nation which has granted that access. Israel will not relinquish this access.

  The main sticking point to progress, however, is the reconciliation agreement between Hamas and Fatah or the Palestinian Authority. Hamas denies Israel’s right to exist in its charter and calls for the extermination of the Jews. This reconciliation agreement amounts to a declaration of war by the PA towards Israel. Either Hamas needs to renounce its stated objectives, or Abbas needs to renounce Hamas. No progress whatsoever will occur until one of those two options transpires. The United States has indicated that it would veto in the Security Council any effort on the part of the PA to declare an independent Palestine.

      The Golan Heights were taken by Israel from the Syrians. Syria is in crisis. Until a stable Syrian government emerges, no negotiations will take place. Stability is not in play on the Egyptian border, nor the Jordanian border. Israel finds itself in a position in which the peace treaties in place may well be abrogated if a new Egyptian government should emerge which focuses on a religious determination of statehood rather than secular statehood.

In essence, Israel finds itself defensive on all borders once again.

Under these conditions it is not a time to be reckless. Certainly peace with the Palestinians involves a two state solution. That peace must be negotiated, and negotiated between partners who recognize each others right to exist and live in peace.

       The President’s choice of words last Thursday unfortunately alienated many Jews, and emboldened those  thatcall into question the legitimization of Israel by its enemies. This is due to the spin factor of choosing  the parts of the speech that one would see as beneficial to a particular side. He clarified his position on Friday night. The partnership of the USA and Israel is strong and will remain strong. The ball is in Abbas’s court. He can choose to seek legitimate negotiations, or he chooses to steer the Palestinian Authority to be absorbed by Hamas. The 2nd option will only lead to war.