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July 28, 2006 04:53 PM UTC

Friday Open Thread

  • 45 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

It’s hotter than a liar’s pants out there.

Comments

45 thoughts on “Friday Open Thread

  1. The latest news from the Fed is not good.  The housing bubble has finally burst, growth is down to about 2.5% (just slightly higher than 1.8% after Katrina) and the key indicators of gas and food prices are pointing to increased inflation.

    With the worsening situation in Baghdad and the INCREASE in troop levels by 21,000 things are looking grim for the Republican majority.  There will be no ticker tape parades in October as they had planned.  Troops scheduled to come home are now being told that they are going to be there for at least another 3 months.

    This is going to radically effect the elections here in Colorado.  It is going to be extremely hard for Republicans to win back the majorities now, if not down right impossible.  Voter turnout of Republicans is likely to plummet.

    Dems have a VERY distinct advantage.  The ever turning wheel of fortune, I remember in ’04 that all the talking heads were saying the the Democrats were basically doomed for the next ten years. 

    OOOPS.

  2. I took a real good look at that Lamm commercial last night – and is it just me – or does she have a lazy eye?  It doesn’t really matter, but if so – why accentuate it by showing her up close, looking directly at the camera? 

    1. I thought that commercial stunk. First, she comes across as a mean-spirited b-word. Anyone who’d paint her opponents face on cue balls and then viciously WHACK them into pool table pockets is CRUEL.

      Plus, it’s just the typical “negative ad” we’re getting so tired of.

      Plus, she used Perlmutter’s name a lot: more name recognition for him than her, really.

      That being said, I think Perlmutter’s ad is pretty silly as well. Looks like warmed over Swift Boat imagery to me.

      I wish Rubenstein had a chance! Lamm’s pool-table rack notwithstanding, he’s the only one of the three of them with any REAL balls.

  3. Does any body know any dirt on “Golden Boy” Dick O’Donnell? Skeletons, rumors, innuendo, or cold hard facts will all be accepted. Any links would be nice.

    1. But check out the thread about Rick’s essay advocating the abolishment of social security.  That’s not the juiciest scandal, but it certainly doesn’t indicate good things for the guy this fall.

      1. “That’s not the juiciest scandal, but it certainly doesn’t indicate good things for the guy this fall.”

        Actually, that scandal is indicative of a very good thing: 

        If you’ve called Social Security un-American and have advocated eliminating it, you are unelectable.  Period.

        We’ve all seen how Republicans who used to openly talk about “privatizing” Social Security now scurry like drowning rats aboard the S.S. Rove whenever someone even mentions “privatization,” going so far as to claim that their proposals don’t REALLY privatize Social Security – even though that’s exactly what they used to call those very same proposals. 

        Now Little Ricky has to scurry from something even worse:  his own words, when he didn’t just want to privatize Social Security, he wanted to eliminate it.

        You can update your thesaurus. 

        “Unelectable” and “Rick O’Donnell” are now synonyms. 

        1. This might be the dirt that sinks him.  A lesson for all those Young Republicans who go “extreme” and when they’re young trying to drowned govenment in the bathtub and then later try to run for office. Did Dick piss on the “third rail”

          1. It’s just plain WRONG. Um, excuse me, Rick, but we PAY TAXES for our Social Security! If you abolish Social Security will I at least get a refund check for the thousands and thousands I’ve paid into the system? (Well, not THAT many thousands; I’m a Democrat after all.)

            The Republicans might as well have nominated someone who said, “Well gee, I used to be a white supremacist but now I’ve had a change of heart.”

            Actually, that candidate would probably stand a BETTER chance than Rick “Kill Social Security” O’Donnell.

      2. I’m still looking for the dirt.  I think friday is not the day to ask this question. I’ll try again next week cause i’m sure there are folks on this board that have got the dirty dirty on Tricky Dick.

  4. Charlie Cook, of the Cook Political Report, has just released his list of top competitive House Races in the country.  There are 46 competative races according to the National Journal report.

    CD-7 is listed as the second most competitive race.
    Says Cook: “Colorado, 7th District
    Open: Republican Bob Beauprez, Retiring

    The race for the Democratic nomination pits former state Rep. Ed Perlmutter against Bighorn Policy Center Director Peggy Lamm. Perlmutter has had a pretty consistent financial advantage over Lamm, but Lamm’s name ID (she is the ex-wife of former Gov. Richard Lamm’s brother) gives her a serious advantage in the contest. Democrats would certainly be happier, however, if they could avoid an expensive primary that leaves their eventual nominee bruised and broke just 13 weeks before Election Day.

    Republican Rick O’Donnell is a well-funded candidate without primary opposition, but not without liabilities. He’s trying to distance himself from an essay he wrote 11 years ago that called for the elimination of Social Security. Acknowledging that Democrats are certain to use the essay against him in the fall, O’Donnell announced that he no longer favors ending the entitlement program but that he supports adding personal accounts. Out of his control, however, are the serious political headwind that’s blowing against him and the district’s slight Democratic tilt. Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry carried this district in 2004 with 51 percent of the vote.”

    CD-4 isn’t listed at all.  Looks like the top odds makers in the nation think Musgrave is safe.  This is bound to hurt Paccione’s fundraising, especially down the stretch…

    Looks to me like it’s time for a CD-4 Line change, especially if a non-partisan handicapper like Cook puts Musgrave back in the Safe GOP column.

    Here’s the full list of Cook’s top 46:
    Competitive House Races
    Forty-six House districts now look as if they will have truly competitive races this November. All 14 of the seats mostly likely to switch party are now held by Republicans. Republicans are in italics; retiring incumbents are in brackets.
    Most-Vulnerable Seats, All Republican (14)
    AZ-08  Open [Jim Kolbe]
    CO-07  Open [Bob Beauprez]
    CT-02  Rob Simmons
    CT-04  Christopher Shays
    FL-22  Clay Shaw
    IL-06  Open [Henry Hyde]
    IN-08  John Hostettler
    IN-09  Mike Sodrel
    IA-01  Open [Jim Nussle]
    KY-04  Geoff Davis
    NM-01  Heather Wilson
    NC-11  Charles Taylor
    OH-18  Bob Ney
    PA-06  Jim Gerlach

    Leaning Democratic (10)
    GA-08  Jim Marshall
    GA-12  John Barrow
    IL-08  Melissa Bean
    IA-03  Leonard Boswell
    LA-03  Charlie Melancon
    OH-06  Open [Ted Strickland]
    SC-05  John Spratt
    TX-17  Chet Edwards
    VT-AL  Open [independent Bernie Sanders]
    WV-01  Alan Mollohan

    Leaning Republican (22)
    AZ-05  J.D. Hayworth
    CA-11  Richard Pombo
    CT-05  Nancy Johnson
    IN-02  Chris Chocola
    KY-03  Anne Northup
    MN-06  Open [Mark Kennedy]
    NV-03  Jon Porter
    NH-01  Jeb Bradley
    NH-02  Charles Bass
    NJ-07  Michael Ferguson
    NY-20  John Sweeney
    NY-24  Open [Sherwood Boehlert]
    NY-29  Randy Kuhl
    OH-01  Steve Chabot
    OH-15  Deborah Pryce
    PA-07  Curt Weldon
    PA-08  Mike Fitzpatrick
    PA-10  Don Sherwood
    TX-22  Open [Tom DeLay]*
    VA-02  Thelma Drake
    WA-08  Dave Reichert
    WI-08  Open [Mark Green]

    1. There you are. Thought you skedaddled. Oh well. One report from one guy does not equal the consensus of “top odds makers.” Cite several more reports that say the same thing and then I’ll concede that you’re on to something.

      1. I didn’t say anything about a “consensus” of odds makers.  Charlie Cook and his staff at CPR are some of the top odds makers in the nation.

        Just cause you don’t like the odds, doesn’t mean they’re not accurate.  Of course your namesake thought that the world was flat, so I won’t hold my breath for you to understand these sort of basic concepts.

        1. … and the facts show that you’re full of it. To quote the mighty cap’n:

          “CD-4 isn’t listed at all.”

          BUT… when you go to cookreport’s web site (link below) and download the most recent house race page (as of now that’s July 19) CD 4 is right there on the list. It’s “leaning republican” but there it is.

          SO… let me peer into my crystal ball… yes… yes… ol’ cap’n amerika is telling me he’s got the July 26 report. Bully for him. That, conveniently, isn’t up on their web site yet. At least not to non-subscribers.

          So, cap’n, this report updates their list every week. You think CD 4 will stay off the list? I wouldn’t bet on it my vigilante friend.

    2. Great advice coming from such an unbiased blogger such as yourself, Amerika. Just what would you like the line change to say?

      Something along the lines, “Marilyn’s winning. She didn’t really get outraised by $60,000. She didn’t really bring up a gay marriage amendment to the Constitution after she promised she would focus on other issues. She’s really for the environment, even though she was rated MINUS 4 by Republicans for Environmental Protection. She’s really for the troops, even though she’s voted against increases in disability funding and bonuses. She didn’t really take $30,000 from federally indicted Tom DeLay. She didn’t really refuse to return the money upon his indictment.”

      Something like that work for ya? Good Lord, just reading it over makes me wonder why we don’t call her Both Ways Marilyn.

      1. I never said I wasn’t biased. EVERYONE is biased in some way, and anyone telling you any different is a liar trying to push their own agenda.

        I’m proud of my conservative beliefs, and like any honest blogger, I freely admit to my political leanings.

        You really don’t have any proof to back up your statements.  Marilyn is a proud defender of Traditional Values, but she also has an impressive voting record of defending veteran’s issues (fighting for TRICARE, expanding health benefits…etc.), fighting for farmers and ranchers and representing the real interests of her district. 

        You’re just pissed she didn’t cow before the unholy Gill/Polis/Striker cabal, and bow to their liberal, Denver interests.  She stood up to them.

        Marilyn is a conservative hero.

        1. Captain America, you are a minority on this site. Same as me. Most everyone here blasts me for speaking my views.
          I guess if a viewpoint isn’t politically correct leaning way left, it isn’t wanted here.
          That is why I miss Voyageur, BMR, Iron Mike, and the rest.

            1. you know I have, but with my limited high school, graduate only vocabulary, I have a hard time putting up a fight against such overwhelming numbers……….
              Know what I mean?
              I say what I think (not feel as that is what liberals do) and I get blasted on four sides.
              So whenever someone like Captain America speaks up with some of my same views, I will encourage him.

              Plus my dad rode with a dude named Captain America back in the 70’s in Illinois. The guy died on his Harley. A stationwagon pulled out in front of him. Since then I have always held that name in higher regards as he was a hell of a partier and fighter……….

              Love, Titan Gecko

              1. Just keep it up, you’re doing fine. I’d much rather read what you have to say because I believe you’re being honest. (Except when you say you think and don’t feel – what are you, a robot?) But cap’n amerika is not honest. This person is just a shill for Musgrave.

                I don’t care who they’re working for, shills are not honest debaters, they are campaigners who are pretending to be interested in discussion. Check out what he’s posted and you’ll see that he always just starts a new comment with some lame ass spin about how well Musgrave is doing, and seldom if ever replies to goood answers to his original posts. (I don’t include my above reply as a “good answer,” I was just trying to get under his skin. Looks like I succeeded.) I don’t think this shill has 1/10th the class your father’s friend had (never mind the comic book character).

        2. Proof? It only takes minutes to look up her congressional record. Do your own homework. You’ll have to put some time in but it was worth it to me to find out she voted against expanding TriCare to inactive guardsmen, voted against an increase in disability benefits, voted against a lousy $1,500.00 bonus for troops in Afghanistan and Iraq.

          Yeah, quite the defender of veterans’ issues…not.

          The Republican Scorecard you can google and find online. Good reading, very informative.

          Up to you if you want to explore the truth or continue to make false statements about her record. I’m not going to do your work for you. I did it for myself so I could be informed.

          Pissed about her refusing to “cow before the unholy Gill/Polis/Striker cabal?” Hardly, my friend. Much more pissed at having a representative that represents the smallest faction of voters such as yourself while ignoring the needs of the majority of her constituents. I’d be much happier with her if she’d quit worrying about what people are doing in their bedrooms and start worrying about what’s happening in our district and in our country.

          Conservative hero? More like a completely out of touch extremist.

        3. Marilyn Musgrave takes strong stands against the Radical Homosexual Lobby that is trying to corrupt our youth with their “fisting” manuals and assault on our Traditional Way Of Life that real Americans stand for. They need a champion who will be a shield against the Al Qaida sympathizers and Leftist Taliban who hate Our Way of Life.

          Why should this radical minority be allowed to hijack our country with their extremist designs on our children? The Culture of Death just leads to school massacres and promiscuity! It leads to saying that Children of Shame ought to be killed in the womb! The vast majority of AMERICANS stand for strong Families, and Marilyn Musgrave is a voice of Reason against the dictatorship of nihilism!

          Marilyn has done so much for the farmers and ranchers. That is why they Love her. She has done so much for veterans, and supports the Mission to bring the light of Democracy to Iraq, which the liberal media would have you believe we are losing. She is for better schools, less government, and sound fiscal principles. She supports our President, when the hateful Left would rather America was divided and weak before our Enemies!

          Marilyn Musgrave is a Real Leader who gets things done for regular Americans! That is what America is about!!!!

          1. Are you kidding me?

            Like Middle of the Road said, she is [a] “…completely out of touch extremist.”

            What parallel universe are you living in?  The far right in this country are the extremists and they’ll soon be swept out office nationwide. I hope the kind and gentle folks of the 4th CD are paying enough attention to the world and not merely being sidetracked by Marilyn and her ilk’s’ wedge techniques of using “god, guns, and gays” to keep the real issues at bay.

            Rizzo, it’s fairly clear that your so-called family values  might have FISTED your brain away some time ago.

            You’re right on this thought, if Democrats get elected there will be mandatory Fisting classes taught in Kindergarten. Those same kids will be feed stem cells in their milk.  Who leaked the memo?  Please Rizzo don’t tell anyone else of our dastardly plan. 

            I’m guessing you’ve been watching just a little too much Fox News and 700 Club for your own good.

        4. “I’m proud of my conservative beliefs, and like any honest blogger, I freely admit to my political leanings.”

          You’re no “honest blogger.” You’re a Musgrave shill, pretending to be an honest blogger. All you post is lame campaign lit slogans for her. Honest bloggers post opionions about other topics and actually engage in debate. I’ll consider you to be honest when I see that coming from you.

    3. Don’t get hasty, Amerika.

      According to the National Journal, CD4 is listed in the their top 50 races.

      Number 38, to be precise.

      “Is Musgrave’s district changing too fast on her?”

    4. But, then, I think the polling pundits are getting a bit behind on their race analysis this year.  In my open thread bit yesterday, I mentioned two races that aren’t on *anyone’s* charts yet – OH-2 and ID-1.  Yet both are polling tied, with negative voter sentiment towards the Republican incumbent to boot.  This is also the first time that Cook has mentioned NC-11 – the race between incumbent R Charlie Taylor and former quarterback Heath Schuler, a race that’s come from nowhere to leans Dem in no time.

      NPR threw in CO-4 to round out their top 50 (Cook and the other regular pollsters only list 48 “most vulnerable” seats right now).  Angie appears to be finally getting DCCC fundraising love in a big way in the next couple of week, too.  The traditional pollsters have always favored Cash On Hand figures in determining just which seats are vulnerable (ROD’s distinct advantage in that department being an obvious exception); Angie’s just recently shown how competitive she’ll be.  I predict CO-4 moves into “leans Republican” from “safe Republican” in the next Cook Report, along with several other unexpected seats.  Democratic openings have been slowly disappearing from his lists, and are being replaced by Republicans.  That trend will continue through the election.

      1. PR, while I may not agree with your analysis, I certainly appreciate the tone and manner in which you delivered it.  Thanks for keeping your post invective free.

        1. on just who will win, but I hope you do look at the trending and the analysis of these reports with an open eye.

          Cook (and most of the other professional predicters out there) are all pretty conservative when it comes to predicting turnover, in part because only rarely do massive numbers of seats actually flip.  There are some early signs that this will be one of those years, and early analysis isn’t keeping up with the signs IMHO.

          Musgrave has the obvious advantage of having survived several challenges now, but she continues to be an underperforming incumbent in the races; by all rights she should be winning elections with larger margins than she does.  And she spends massive amounts of cash every two years to keep those small margins.  To me, that indicates someone who hasn’t figured out how to pull away from the edge of losing her seat.  She’s vulnerable and she’s not pulling in the cash that she’s had in prior years.  Angie is fresh blood in this race, she can talk to some of the Evangelicals who have gone for Musgrave in the past, and – after a long period of wondering – it looks like the DCCC will get involved in the race this time around.

          Watch for this race to heat up, fast.

          1. How is a pro-abortion, pro-homosexual Liberal going to get Evangelical Christians to vote for her?

            Evangelicals LOVE Marilyn, because she’s pro-life, pro family.

        2. “Thanks for keeping your post invective free.”

          Words to live by from the guy who brought you gems like this:

          “DeGette isn’t even in the same league as Marilyn.  Marilyn fights for what she believes in regardless of the political consequences.  DeGette is pressing her extremist agenda from safe behind the walls of the communist safe haven of Denver and CD1, far from the madding crowd.”

          Hmmm….. nope, calling Degette an extremist and a communist IS IN NO WAY invective. Yeah, right.

          IMHO, you should follow your own advise. Don’t dish it out if you can’t take it.

      1. has kept CO-6 off the lists to-date.  Bill’s got a lot of committed support from the national level, but he needs to break free somewhere in order to catch the attention of people like Cook.

        A solid poll showing him ahead or on Mad Tom’s heels in the race, or a quarter of pounding Tancredo in fundraising, or something – unanimous newspaper endorsements might, but probably wouldn’t, do it.

        Besides, a part of me thinks that Cook and friends like to keep their lists to a comprehensible size; put too many Republicans on the ropes and people will start looking at you funny.  As more races firm up (and real poll data becomes available), more races will switch to the Democratic side of the fence.  If Bill Winter keeps talking to people, he’ll keep getting the support he needs in November.

  5. With Peggy Lamm and Ed Perlmutter ducking issues and leveling sophomoric attacks at each other Rick O’Donnell may just win. Ten days is an eternity in politics. Rumor has it that Rubenstein will do a big TV push the last seven days. Before knocking Herb please view his ads at herbforcongress.com. This will fast become a three way race when voters see these ads and learn about Rubenstein.

    1. That he advocates manditory breathalyzers in all vehicles?

      That he advocates realtime webcams in every public school classroom in America?

      That he advocates a consumption tax on junk food?

      That he’s published his articles in neo-conservative journals? (I don’t think Herb’s a closet conservative, just really desperate to publish in some cases, which shows a bit of warped desire to get your stuff out there)

      Sorry, but I just feel that Herb’s politics and promises are way off the track in most cases. 

      I think the final straw was when I heard him tell somebody at a univeristy debate with the other two candidates that he moved out here because of the ‘professorship’ at Colorado State, which to my knowledge he never even held.  Then, in the debates, I believe he claimed it was for family reasons and that they’d been looking into it for years.  Before that I was told from a pretty reliable source that it was the open-seat and Democratic voting edge in CD7 that lured him out of DC . . . either way I just don’t buy what this guy is selling – and that includes the Iraq War and term limit campaign gimmicks.

    2. Just where is Herb going to get the money to do this “big TV push”?  Even his created events (those where he pretends there is a community sponsor for an issue forum, but it is really just one of his volunteers renting a room with the campaign’s money) only pull a dozen people and that includes his people and the observers from the other two campaigns.  One assumes that he would not be creating shill events if he could get coverage honestly and likewise that he would not need to try to get press that way if he could afford this “big TV push.”

  6. This reminds me of when I heard Herb say that he had intentionally hamstringed his fundraising so that Ed Perlmutter wouldn’t get antsy and have his ‘connections’ open up a massive 527 to deal with him.

    A 527, just for Herb?  Delusional sure, but also funny.

  7. this  blog really seems to have taken a turn for the worst lately. what’s the deal? there’s never any real news or insider info here. did you guys get cut off or something?

  8. http://www.cjrdaily….

    Jul. 28, 2006 – 3:42 PM

    Turning Up the Heat
    ABC Uncovers Climate Science for Sale

    Edward B. Colby

    Yesterday ABC News broke the story of how a Colorado electric cooperative, the Intermountain Rural Electric Association, “openly admitted that it has paid $100,000 to a university academic who prides himself on being a global warming skeptic.”

    “[IREA] is heavily invested in power plants that burn coal, one of the chief sources of greenhouse gasses that scientists agree is quickly pushing Earth’s average temperature to dangerous levels,” reported ABC’s Clayton Sandell and Bill Blakemore. “Scientists and consumer advocates say the co-op is trying to confuse its clients about the virtually total scientific consensus on the causes of global warming,” Sandell and Blakemore added beneath the headline, “Making Money by Feeding Confusion Over Global Warming.”

    A nine-page document that IREA general manager Stanley Lewandowski sent to members of the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association, ABC reported, was “a wide-ranging condemnation of carbon taxes and mandatory caps on greenhouse gas emissions that Lewandowski writes would threaten to ‘erode most, if not all, the benefits of coal-fired generation.'”

    The document also included mention of IREA’s February contribution of $100,000 to Patrick Michaels — Virginia’s state climatologist and “one of about a dozen academics who for years have cast doubt on the science surrounding global warming while downplaying the scientifically accepted idea that humans are causing it.”

    Such doubt has led to lingering public confusion about global warming and its causes, despite unprecedented scientific consensus both that it is happening and that humans are contributing to it.

    ABC also reported that IREA, a relatively small company, gave the contribution to Michaels without any notice to consumers — a move that Ron Binz, Colorado’s former utility consumer advocate, called “outrageous” and “an abuse of authority.”

    The story was full and fair, with Lewandowski, who was “unapologetic about the contents of the document and for donating the money to Michaels,” given much space to defend himself.

    With ABC’s work in mind, we turned today to Colorado’s two largest newspapers to see what they could add to the story — and found nothing about it on the Web sites of either the Denver Post or the Rocky Mountain News.

    Why not? Here is a global warming story that’s juicy (after a fashion), and one that’s relatively easy to explain to readers, and one with a local angle. But while the Post carried an editorial on wind power yesterday as well as a Wednesday story on a new report warning of the danger warming poses to “12 of the nation’s most prominent parks,” it does not mention the IREA news. Nor does the News, although it carried a story about the parks Wednesday, an article on a dispute between Oklahoma Sen. James Inhofe and the Denver regional EPA office Thursday, and published a feature on a “Veggie oil-powered bus” today.

    Meanwhile, the Washington Post published an Associated Press brief on the IREA news in its print edition today, and the Post, New York Times and Los Angeles Times all carry the AP’s full story on their Web sites. (The AP reported that the $100,000 IREA gave Michaels is part of a collection campaign it organized to help him with a financial shortfall “for his analyses of other scientists’ global warming research,” and that another company has pledged to give $50,000.)

    Now if only the Denver Post and the Rocky Mountain News would do the same.

  9. still wondering about polls and why some are reflected and others are not? case in point, last poll July 24 WSJ and Zogby..pretty reputable polls. In that one BB and BR were only two points apart 41-43 in moe. Got that one from a repub..since I didn’t see it on polls or press (but have not gotten denver papers as was out of town) but doubled checked on Zogby’s one site where he went through a number of state races throughout county..this only one.
    Does POlls find WSJ and Zogby reliable anymore.This should not be good for news for Ritter. BB has bad press and still pulls even, no one has even tried to say anything about Ritter yet

    1. Some of the Zogby/WSJ polls are accurate, others are not.  I don’t know the one in question, so I can’t answer whether or not it’s a “good” poll.  What was the MOE?  And what was the polling method?  Analysis method?

      Zogby does several types of polls; some are better than others.  I’d trust the Mason-Dixon poll the most, and if I was a Republican I’d be scared by the Rasmussen poll (their methodology tends to give Republicans a bit of a statistical advantage compared to other polls…).

      My guess is that the Zogby poll is statistically accurate, but leans towards the inside curve of the MOE – i.e. it under-estimates the gap a bit; Rasmussen probably falls towards the outside curve of the MOE – i.e. it over-estimates the gap.  Leaving us with the M-D poll, which is in the middle.

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