President (To Win Colorado) See Full Big Line

(D) Joe Biden*

(R) Donald Trump

80%

20%↓

CO-01 (Denver) See Full Big Line

(D) Diana DeGette*

90%

CO-02 (Boulder-ish) See Full Big Line

(D) Joe Neguse*

90%

CO-03 (West & Southern CO) See Full Big Line

(D) Adam Frisch

(R) Jeff Hurd

(R) Ron Hanks

40%

30%

20%

CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado) See Full Big Line

(R) Lauren Boebert

(R) J. Sonnenberg

(R) Ted Harvey

20%↑

15%↑

10%

CO-05 (Colorado Springs) See Full Big Line

(R) Dave Williams

(R) Jeff Crank

(R) Doug Bruce

20%

20%

20%

CO-06 (Aurora) See Full Big Line

(D) Jason Crow*

90%

CO-07 (Jefferson County) See Full Big Line

(D) Brittany Pettersen

85%↑

 

CO-08 (Northern Colo.) See Full Big Line

(D) Yadira Caraveo

(R) Gabe Evans

(R) Janak Joshi

60%↑

40%↑

20%↑

State Senate Majority See Full Big Line

DEMOCRATS

REPUBLICANS

80%

20%

State House Majority See Full Big Line

DEMOCRATS

REPUBLICANS

95%

5%

Generic selectors
Exact matches only
Search in title
Search in content
Post Type Selectors
November 05, 2020 06:46 AM UTC

Thursday Open Thread

  • 51 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

“Patience is not simply the ability to wait – it’s how we behave while we’re waiting.”

–Joyce Meyer

Comments

51 thoughts on “Thursday Open Thread

  1. First thought of the day – it looks like Biden will be our next president and there's still an outside chance of a 50/50 Senate.

    As Democrats we should be fucking celebrating, not curled up in a fetal ball sobbing because we didn't get everything.

      1. If I got to pick the purple state we have to win, I would pick Georgia. It will be a contest on who can get out more of the base and I'll take Stacey Abrams and her team over any other.

        And I'm pretty sure Obama will basically take up residence there, going door to door if needed, to get every last possible Dem to vote.

      2. Stuart Stevens, who ran Romney’s campaign and is now part of the Lincoln Project, noted that Trump and GOP voters in GA will be disheartened after his loss sinks in.  That will help the Dem turnout for the GA Senate runoff elections in January.  Of course, at this moment Perdue still needs to fall below 50% to force a runoff against Ossoff.  I’m amazed at how little attention has been paid by pundits to the fact that the Senate majority and the ability to get anything done during the first two years of the expected Biden Administration rests with these two GA races.

    1. Another suggestion might be to thank all those “lefties” for holding their noses and voting for old “middle of the road Joe”. While you are at it, throw a thank you to Bernie and his Bros.

      The exigency of the moment requires us to accomodate all stakeholders. 

      1. Bernie and the bros were on the right side this time but I don't know if he could have won.  What a dog fight.  Fingers crossed it will be enough.

    2. First thought of the day – it looks like Biden will be our next president and there's still an outside chance of a 50/50 Senate.

      As Democrats we should be fucking celebrating, not curled up in a fetal ball sobbing because we didn't get everything.

       

      Not in a fetal ball, but I am holding my breath and waiting for the proof of Biden winning.  At the very least AZ needs to be nailed down, NV needs to solidify and/or PA needs to flip.  And/or GA needs to flip.  

      Right now, Biden is at 253 or 264 depending on who has called the states.  Waiting to break 270.  Then I will be fucking celebrating.

      1. I'm with you, unnamed. My stress level is lower than it was Tuesday night (in other words I can breathe enough to sustain life) but the wait to fully count ballots in states that are almost tied is tough!

  2. Second thought of the day – I understand while people voted for Trump in 2016. The system does not work for them anymore and they see the Democratic party as helping the educated and the non-white. But ignoring the laid off factory worker & coal miner.

    But this time around? Trump has talked up a good game for them for the last 4 years. But he hasn't done shit for them. Nothing.

      1. One of the funniest Lincoln Project ads was the animation called “The Walk of Shame”.   It started with clothes strewn across the floor and empty booze bottles on the table.  A female elephant (with long eye lashes) wakes up next to Trump.  She leaves and is walking the street reading headlines and is repulsed about what Trump has done.  She ends up leaning against a light pole.  The tag is: “We all make mistakes.  But, we don’t have to make the same mistake twice.” 
        Priceless, but apparently plenty of Trump supporters weren’t educated by the first kick of the mule.

    1. It seems tribe trumps self-interest David.  Half of our society has been poisoned to believe that compromise is a bad thing and working with others a sin.  Our democracy is dying even though we're voting in record numbers.

    2. Here is Rachel Bitecofer’s take:

      Rachel “The Doc” Bitecofer 

      @amyewalter

      there IS a new realignment in American politics & it cuts across race among the under 30s. It is the educated vs the non-educated Its bc the GOP is preying on the non-educated (esp men) via digital targeting with misinfo/disinfo And now they know it works

      I’ve noticed that Democratic turnout was exceedingly large. That “should” have won, but I also notice that Republican turnout was exceedingly large.

      Bitecofer has a couple of other explanations:

      (1) Politics in the US is dominated by “negative partisanship”, and that we are in a hyper-partisan environment. 

      (2) Low-information voters are susceptible to repeated disinformation campaigns. 

      1. I prefer long-form articles, but I've started reading Bitecofer's twitter feed. She lays forcefully it on the line which offends some, specifically some Dem strategists who have relied on traditional turnout models and persuasion.

        Anyway, She really has more extremely important points to make:

        (1) Persuasion may work with college educated, but the low-info voters know NOTHING about Trump's policies, they actually do believe he is a successful billionaire, and they are completely snowed by his lies because a persuasion campaign strategy has no effect on them. Dems did not even really communicate to the low-info electorate.

        (2) Parscale & Cambridge Analytics were brilliant in their micro-targeting of younger, black and latino men.

        (3) Trump ran an extremely strong and effective negative-partisanship strategy that turned out the low-info base, and that is what salvaged the Senate: Susan Collins, Joni Ernst, Daines. It almost lost us the Senate seat in Michigan.

    3. Nothing?!!

      Overstatement to start the day is no help. No wonder D's are complaining.

      Trump did a lot. 
      If I am a coal miner in Pennsyltuckey and I bought into the pitch that the only reason coal couldn't compete was the D's fucked us all by saving the hairless molerat or some other dreamed up environmental bullshite, Trump gutted the EPA. Yet – the mines still went bankrupt, ending their pension dreams and the jobs still didn't come back.

      But forget how a stupid miner wants to blame the wrong guy.

      THE POLITICAL MATH IS NOT BASED ON WHAT REALLY HAPPENED OR WHO REALLY DID WHAT.   IT IS BASED ON VOTER PERCEPTION.

      It is the kindest, naivest conclusion that trump did nothing for the desperate working class voters who supported and support him.

      1. And they cannot comprehend that it was Mitt Rmoney and his cohort who ship their jobs to China for cheap labor. They can’t even look at the ‘Made in’ label on their MAGAt gear and connect that to their economic collapse.

    1. This would need better messaging to gain real support.

      It sounds like you are saying the right kinds of gun restrictions save lives and reduce casualties.

      For real political support message would have to be something like
      gun permits screw brown skinned immigrants
      magazine capacity limits force Mexico to pay for a wall and give us their oil for free

       

      Seriously – if's like so called progressives don't learn anything unless it feels right

       

      1. The citation is an academic paper.

        You might be able to find effective political messaging in academic papers but not in this journal.

        Your messages might be submitted to Mad magazine.

        1. You think academic expertise is the path to vitory?

          Pointy eared professors are NOT popular with voters.

          First – they want us to stop smoking and drink less and exercise more. pffft.
          They don't watch NASCAR or football. They don't do the hard physical labor that matters .

          Ie, they don't understand  hard working 'mericans. They're pussies without no clue.

          Real voters own small businesses (like they do make up and hair on the side, or they drive delivery for $2/hr) and don't need or want Obamacare

            1. glwt

               

              It absolutely does not explain
              – Boebert and qanon
              – Trump 16 nomination and win, persistence in 20
              – Rick Walker, Rick Perry, George W Bush

              and hundreds or thousands of other political wins in the USA and elsewhere.

              Yes. I suck. I am the problem.
              I am why Al Gore lost. I am why Michael Dukakis and Paul Simon and Bill Bradley were never taken seriously. I am why the Ds in general, and in Colorado in particular cannot move further left. I am why Bernie lost twice. Me and my stupid insistence on paying attention to what voters say or do and why.

              Well, glwt too.

               

                1. That is not how it works on the ground in America

                  Bluto was absolutely right to reference the Germans bombing Pearl Harbor and Americans defeating the Germans in Europe.

              1. LOL

                You’re like a fart in a windstorm

                The topic of the paper was gun safety and, as a side benefit, established the long-disputed effectiveness of the 2013 CO ban on large magazines.

                But, to your point, if anyone can ever come up with a reliable explanation for all of the events and abberations you listed then we really will have settled on the mind-control dump for the remainder of our history.

                ‘paying attention to what (all) voters say or do and why’ is a fools errand and an impossibility for any politician or human. The best anyone can hope for is a tiny slice of that.

    1. Similar to 2010.

      Worse-
      the US now enjoys a federal judiciary that believes outcomes cannot be the standard against which districting and voting rules can be judged. Ie, paraphrasing Chief Justice Roberts, if there is no proof of intent  to discriminate illegally, thent he outcome is irrelevant.

       

    2. That's the way that the Rs designed it with Project REDMAP.

      It was not just a 10-year plan. It will run in perpetuity until it reaches such an extreme that the courts have to step in.

      And the way that the courts are stacked now there is even less hope for a fix.

  3. Moscow Mitch has served notice that no extremist in Biden’s Cabinet will get confirmed. Not sure where he draws that line. May end up with a coalition of DINOs and RINOs.

    1. Jumping ahead a bit?  The Cabinet story assumes

       * a Presidential outcome which is not certain, with

       * a Senate majority that is not certain, and

       * an unfilled transition team to evaluate potential Secretaries and choose who to put forward.

      If everything falls the way it seems to be trending, there could be confirmation fights.  If there are, McConnell may push hard to have his caucus unify in opposition (while Biden, Harris, and their team try to persuade to “let Biden have his team”).  Even if there is an initial uniform Republican opposition, the Vacancy Act allows the President to name “the Acting” for 240 days, and longer if there is a nomination pending in the Senate. I expect some Republicans would prefer Biden’s real nominee to Acting extremists.

      I’m betting the more likely fights are over ANY Biden nominations to the judiciary.

      1. Mitch knows all this and will do whatever is expedient for him. He cares nothing for the benefit of the people he is supposed to serve…only judges for the funders who enable him.

        We are speculating, for sure.

  4. If a year ago someone would have told me that the D presidential candidate  could get 2.4million votes in GA and lose,  I would have assured them that 2.4 was fine.

    Likewise, the D could get 5.2 million votes and lose Texas.

    Those kind of numbers say GA and TX are in play
    Whether it takes a really bad R or they are just ready remains to be seen. Of course, GA will have a chance to demonstrate in just a few weeks.

    AZ is the newest purple state.
    Will the demographics continue to change enough to become more blue remains to be seen.

    I still think there are small group of oddly well funded republicans angling for a constitutional convention. The 2020 census and subsequent redistricting only
    helps them.

    And for all the R's in Colorado or elsewhere whining about having to move because they live in blue states now – I recommend AR, KY or TN.  Climate change is going to make things tougher in FL and the Gulf Coast. Texas is full of Texans, and expat solutions are generally awkward. (hint- Norway doesn't want you and New Zealand is really far)

Leave a Comment

Recent Comments


Posts about

Donald Trump
SEE MORE

Posts about

Rep. Lauren Boebert
SEE MORE

Posts about

Rep. Yadira Caraveo
SEE MORE

Posts about

Colorado House
SEE MORE

Posts about

Colorado Senate
SEE MORE

154 readers online now

Newsletter

Subscribe to our monthly newsletter to stay in the loop with regular updates!