From The Pueblo Chieftain:
Rep. John Salazar, D-Colo., released polling results Tuesday showing that he has close to a 2-to-1 advantage with voters over Republican challenger Scott Tipton in the 3rd Congressional District race.
Salazar campaign officials said a telephone survey of 575 district voters during the second week of July showed that 56 percent of the respondents said they would vote for the freshman Democrat if the election were held that day, while 30 percent said they would support Tipton, and 14 percent were undecided.
The poll, conducted by Anzelone-Liszt Research, was paid for by the Salazar campaign. The party affiliation of the voters surveyed was 39 percent Democratic 40 percent Republican, and 21 percent independent.
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Finally, a politician who publishes his polling results! Peggy, Ed and Herb………Take note!
Come on, man. You gotta realize that releasing polling numbers is a dangerous thing. Unless it overtly helps your campaign, you don’t do it.
What Salazar gains by publishing is that he depresses the fundraising for Tipton. Salazar was assumed to be ahead, but probably not by a 2-1 margin. If I was a republican donor (ie if hell freezes over), I would take my money elsewhere.
I will say, though, that while the numbers show him ahead by a lot, I was suprised he’s releasing a poll that doesn’t have him closer to 60. That seems like a safer time to put numbers out there.
Tipton’s depressed enough looking at his fundraising. This is like driving a stake through the heart of the campaign.
It’s tough taking on an incumbent when you’ve got a 26-point deficit and the incumbent’s over 50%. Thank you, the Salazar campaign for releasing these numbers.
I agree with PhoenixRising. The key number is that he’s over 50 percent. That’s the important number in a race involving an incumbent. People first decide if they can live with being represented by the incumbent. If they can’t, only then do they start considering a replacement.
Remember there are some Rs who won’t vote for anyone with a D after his name, and vice-versa. An awful lot of them live in the 3rd CD. 56 percent is a great number. If it holds up, Salazar wins by 12 points.
That’s a whole lot better than staying up till 2 AM waiting for the last results to come in from Pueblo.
I would think making the few West slope (D)s that exist complacent about victory would be a bigger risk than seeing Tipton get some $. And if my guy looked like a sure bet, I might be inclined to send it to places that need it more. This does not seem well thought out.
I believe the Lamm campaign has released polling numbers. I have yet to see numbers from the other two camps.
Lamm is the only one who has come out with a poll. She was/is leading in name rec. and favorability. Ed’s own (now former) pollster, Celinda Lake, has come out with 2 polls. One, an oversample of the minimum wage poll showing Lamm ahead. Then just recently The Hill published a full sample size poll showing Lamm ahead in favorability and the only Dem. ahead of ROD. Ed or Herb have never come out with their own poll to attempt to dispute that Lamm has been the frontrunner for the entire campaign.
I know a lot of Western Slope conservatives that didn’t vote for him the first time, but are satisfied enough with the job he has done that they are planning on voting for him this time around. It’s the beauty of being an incumbent. As long as you keep your mouth shut and don’t rock the boat enough for people to notice, you get to keep your job.
I’m concerned about Tipton. The miles on the car might not be enough here.