Hick or Gardner? And What’s the Spread?

Sen. Cory Gardner and John Hickenlooper.

We’ve been asking this question since July, and the results have generally been about the same: Colorado Pols readers seem to think Democrat John Hickenlooper will have little trouble beating Republican Cory Gardner in November.

Ballots will depart for mailboxes on Friday, so we ask again: Who is going to win Colorado’s marquee race, and by how much?

This is obviously not a scientific survey, but Colorado Pols readers have traditionally been pretty accurate in predicting the outcomes of big races in Colorado. As always, we want to know what you think will happen here — not what you want to happen or who you personally might support. If you had to place a bet — right now — on one of the following options, what would you select?

Click after the jump to cast your vote…



What Will be the Outcome of the U.S. Senate Race in Colorado?

9 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. ohwilleke says:

    The voting is a pretty good approximation of the statistical probability distribution based upon polling averages to date. Fascinating.

  2. unnamed says:

    And, I think Nutlid is trying to vote early and as often as he can on this poll.  And isn't more optimistic than "Gardner in a squeaker".

  3. Gilpin Guy says:

    The real question is the margin:  My guess is 14%.  Slightly better than Polis over Walker.

  4. Early Worm says:

    I'm thinking Hick by 8%.

    What is interesting is how uncompetitive it is. Looking at it historically, you might have expected a very tight race. Neither has ever lost an election. Gardner is 5-0. Hick is 4-0. Both have had there share of electoral good fortune. Congressional redistricting made Gardner's election to Congress a cakewalk. The Republican implosion made Hick's election to Governor a foregone conclusion.  Both had impressive showings in 2014. Gardner besting an incumbent. Hick winning by 3.5% in an election where the other statewide races (including Gardner's) all went republican.

    But, with Colorado trending blue, and the fat Don providing a 5 – 10% drag on Gardner's candidacy, it will not be close.

    • RepealAndReplace says:

      Gardner did take out an incumbent who ran an inept campaign in a wave election year. Make of that what you will.

      Other than that, his biggest challenge was getting the nomination in a screwy district that has produced the like of Bob Schaffer, Marilyn "Musty" Musgrave and Ken Buck. It took the right balance of being rabid enough but not too much so because Gardner always had aspirations for statewide office.

      Hick, too, has had something of a charmed existence. First elected as a quirky geek running a non-politician in a non-partisan municipal election, he did a competent job as mayor to win re-election. He also made nice with his suburban counterparts which made him popular in the burbs. (Something most large city mayors are incapable of doing.)

      He ran for governor in what should have a tough year – 2010 – but he had the good fortune to initially Scott "Musings-On-Waters" McInnis who candidacy imploded (or drowned) only to then face Dan "Black Helicopters and UN Bicycles" Maes who in turn begot the Constitution Party candidate, Tank Tancredo. Hick managed to win the three-way race with a little over 50%.

      And in 2014 he got lucky again. It was another wave election but he drew the redux (or should I say "reflux") of Bob "Both Ways" Beauprez. Both Ways did improve a lot over his 41% finish in 2006 but couldn't quite close the deal.  

      Neither Gardner nor Hick has lost a race – well, except for that unfortunate presidential run by Hick – but has either been tested like he has been this year?

  5. JohnInDenver says:

    Daily Kos Morning Digest take on Gardner's ad about bipartisanship:

    CO-Sen: Republican incumbent Cory Gardner argues in his newest commercial that Colorado benefits from having by one senator from each party. This call for bipartisan representation will probably come as a complete surprise to his home state colleague, Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet. Gardner backed Republican Darryl Glenn's unsuccessful campaign to unseat Bennet back in 2016, saying that Glenn was "going to help grow and keep the Republican majority."

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