CO-04 (Special Election)
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(R) Greg Lopez
(R) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Joe Biden*
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%↓
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
90%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
90%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
(R) Ron Hanks
40%
30%
20%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(R) Deborah Flora
(R) J. Sonnenberg
30%↑
15%↑
10%↓
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Dave Williams
(R) Jeff Crank
50%↓
50%↑
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
90%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) Brittany Pettersen
85%↑
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
(R) Janak Joshi
60%↑
35%↓
30%↑
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
October 07, 2020 08:58 AM UTC
9 Comments
The voting is a pretty good approximation of the statistical probability distribution based upon polling averages to date. Fascinating.
Are you trying to say the Pols community is pretty astute?😉
And, I think Nutlid is trying to vote early and as often as he can on this poll. And isn't more optimistic than "Gardner in a squeaker".
The real question is the margin: My guess is 14%. Slightly better than Polis over Walker.
I'd love to see Gardner not simply lose but lose bigly. But I fear that the attacks on Hick's ethics has take a toll and Hick will only win by between 5% and 10%. (Probably closer to 10 than 5.)
Aside from Muddy Anus, who was the other vote for Gardner in a squeaker?
Muddy Anus 3 times.
I'm thinking Hick by 8%.
What is interesting is how uncompetitive it is. Looking at it historically, you might have expected a very tight race. Neither has ever lost an election. Gardner is 5-0. Hick is 4-0. Both have had there share of electoral good fortune. Congressional redistricting made Gardner's election to Congress a cakewalk. The Republican implosion made Hick's election to Governor a foregone conclusion. Both had impressive showings in 2014. Gardner besting an incumbent. Hick winning by 3.5% in an election where the other statewide races (including Gardner's) all went republican.
But, with Colorado trending blue, and the fat Don providing a 5 – 10% drag on Gardner's candidacy, it will not be close.
Gardner did take out an incumbent who ran an inept campaign in a wave election year. Make of that what you will.
Other than that, his biggest challenge was getting the nomination in a screwy district that has produced the like of Bob Schaffer, Marilyn "Musty" Musgrave and Ken Buck. It took the right balance of being rabid enough but not too much so because Gardner always had aspirations for statewide office.
Hick, too, has had something of a charmed existence. First elected as a quirky geek running a non-politician in a non-partisan municipal election, he did a competent job as mayor to win re-election. He also made nice with his suburban counterparts which made him popular in the burbs. (Something most large city mayors are incapable of doing.)
He ran for governor in what should have a tough year – 2010 – but he had the good fortune to initially Scott "Musings-On-Waters" McInnis who candidacy imploded (or drowned) only to then face Dan "Black Helicopters and UN Bicycles" Maes who in turn begot the Constitution Party candidate, Tank Tancredo. Hick managed to win the three-way race with a little over 50%.
And in 2014 he got lucky again. It was another wave election but he drew the redux (or should I say "reflux") of Bob "Both Ways" Beauprez. Both Ways did improve a lot over his 41% finish in 2006 but couldn't quite close the deal.
Neither Gardner nor Hick has lost a race – well, except for that unfortunate presidential run by Hick – but has either been tested like he has been this year?
Daily Kos Morning Digest take on Gardner's ad about bipartisanship: