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December 17, 2010 09:13 PM UTC

Who Will be the Republican Presidential Nominee?

  • 84 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

Our friends at “The Fix” have their 2012 Republican Presidential Line up today, and we thought it would be a good time to start polling Polsters on the same question.

As always with our polls, we want to know who you think will win, and not who you might support or prefer. In other words, if you had to bet everything you owned on the outcome, who would you choose?

We’re using “The Fix” top 10 list for the names on the poll.

Who Will be the Republican Nominee for President in 2012?

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84 thoughts on “Who Will be the Republican Presidential Nominee?”

  1. who might come out of the woodwork, but when was the last time the repubs nominated someone that hadn’t been a well known, establishment type for a number of years?  GWB was as far “out of the box” as they have gotten in my lifetime.  My money is on Romney.

    1. The GOP is still the party of wait your turn.

      It’s Romney’s turn.

      The Tea Party disasters: Colorado, Nevada,

      Delaware, Alaska, etc. are a warning that it’s time for mainstream republicans to regain control of their party.  

      They will, but the tragedy is how far to the right the mainstream has now been drawn.

         

      1. Whisper campaigns will question his faith.

        He’ll be too ‘moderate’ and ‘establishment’ for the baggers and too ‘other’ for the evangelicals.  

        While the history suggests the establishment figure being nominated, I think the turmoil of the tea tempest is not yet played out in the GOP and could be a significant factor in the primary, depending how large the field stays for how long.  

      2. G, A, Y, and S.  The fundamentalist don’t think the Mormons are Christians, but they know about and appreciate the LDS’s hatred of “the deviants” that are ruining the American way of life.  The family values block still holds a lot of sway in the primary.

  2. .

    real convenient when doing my religious duty – voting against abortion – aligns with support for my financial interests, and preserving my ample riches stored up here on Earth.  

    Plus, she won’t allow the terrorists to impose Sharia Law on us.  

    Besides, she’s ordinary folk, jes’ like me.

    .

    The results of this poll are skewed because you progressives are thinking “nobody in their right mind …”  

    .

    2. She’s got terrible polling with general election voters, but with likely Republican primary/caucus voters I bet it’s quite good.

      Republicans will probably do everything in their power to stop her, but that might make her even more of a martyr for the Tea Party.

      Meanwhile, Sarah couldn’t even win a debate with Joe Biden, how’s she going to match up against Obama?

          1. They provide a bit of the poll data, but not the whole picture. The article even says that “Her highest support comes from Republican women and conservative Republicans. Even so, only about one in five in each group say they would certainly support her presidential bid.”  At any rate, the data they acquired came from a pool of 1,0001 adults–not exactly a scientific polling pool.

            I still hypothesize that her numbers would be significantly higher if the sample size was limited to people described as likely Republican primary voters.

            At any rate, I think she has the best chance of getting elected despite the high negatives. Simply because the Tea Party is going to be pissed that the Republicans they elected are selling them out faster than anyone expected.

            1.  

              the Tea Party is going to be pissed that the Republicans they elected are selling them out faster than anyone expected.

              The Corporatists have been selling out the TeaParty/Christian Right/Silent Majority…etc…etc. since I can remember…and they seem to NEVER catch on and switch sides.

              Well, Alis’ recent revelations and enlightenment are encouraging…while the looming redistricting is positively scary. That may be the Corporatists’ key to a Red president.  

  3. I think that, in the end, most of these candidates will beat each other up trying to occupy the current Republican base position, which is quite a ways to the right.  As the field whittles down, only the top fundraisers and those with a good following will survive.

    Palin may be dumb as a post, but she can raise money, and she has a dedicated following.  Romney is probably the other main candidate to make it through the early rounds.  And in the end, if Republicans have to choose between Romney (crypto-Republican, RomneyCare, LDS member) and Palin, they’ll go for Palin 6 out of 7 days of the week (and on the 7th day they rested and didn’t choose either…).

    2. Her endorsements helped 33 Republicans win in 2010, including key races in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. 2012 will be payback time and their campaign organization make the difference in a crowded field.

      The writing is on the wall (or endorsement tracker map in this case):

      http://www.washingtonpost.com/…    

  4. When the republican party does best, it is when they remain the party of adults.  Old wise men who can take care of your money and security.  The trick for the party is to have someone who is an adult, but doesn’t turn off the social wing of the party.  The party’s best attack on Obama is one of competence.  

    I think Wall Street will turn its back on the party if the nominee does not fit the ‘party of adults’ concept.  Palin and Huckabee are non starters for that reason, and probably DeMint, too.  

    While the GOP has never been a party of outsiders and fresh faces (Since 1952, there have been TWO presidential elections where someone named Nixon, Dole or Bush was NOT on the ticket, and the GOP lost both times), I just have a gut feeling that 2012 may be a tad different.  

    Romney fits my bill perfectly, he just has a ‘je ne se qois’ that doesn’t work for me, and I don’t see him winning. I voted for Thune, but Pawlenty or Daniels wouldn’t surprise me either.  I think 2012 will defy conventional expectations and see the re-birth of the “accountants wing” of the republican party. I know this is not popular among republicans right now, but I just have a gut feeling.  

    1. She may be stupid, but she’s not crazy enough to submit to the withering fire of an actual campaign.  She’s more than happy to be the well-compensated king-maker.

      And the GOP may be crazy, but they aren’t stupid enough to nominate a foregone loser as candidate.  Interestingly, there really aren’t that many names on the list with national name recognition.

      Pawlenty may have just enough, and doesn’t carry the religious baggage of Romney or Huckabee.  Perhaps a dark horse candidate will emerge from either the House or Senate — riding a wave of popularity based on some legislative coup in next year’s session.

      Whoever it winds up being will have a similar challenge that Ken Buck faced.  Enough Tea Party flavor to get past the primaries, but not so much as to be fatal in the general election.  But it’ll take all the charisma (and more) that Buck had, combined with a lot more political smarts to win.

      That would be a tough combination to beat.  But I’m having a hard time thinking of any GOP potential runners that meet that standard.

  6. Normally I have some type of idea when it comes to polls, but I have no idea yet. Wow. It feels so wide open.

    I suppose I would say Mitt Romney, but his messaging was so off last time I can’t help but wonder if the Republicans want a fresh face.

  7. All the pundits agreed it was going to be HRC v Giuliani?  Oh, and McCain was dead in the water? Ordinarily I’d say Romney since it does seem to be his turn, as it was McCain’s, when all was said and done, but don’t think he can pull tea party type support.  Obamacare is an awful lot like Romneycare and the tea party heavy base isn’t exactly famous for drawing the fine (OK for state, not federal program) distinctions Mitt tries to draw.  And that’s just for starters.   So I picked “someone else” but really meant plenty of time for anything to happen.  

  8. There are going to be a lot more names added in the next two months.  What will be interesting is if the main line rich white guy R’s will retake the primary from the main line John Birch society Republicans so they can get their chosen one (whoever it is) up to take on Obama or whoever the Dems get to run if he bails out. It is looking like he is not finding being prez fun.

    Until the leadership of the R’s is decided it will be impossible to put a bet on who the choice will be.

      1. Between his lawyering, his lobbying and his misuse of the Attorney General’s office to defer prosecution in order to line the pockets of his buddies with sweet lucrative federal contracts and his general appearance (think Bill Richardson in 2008 Dem primary debates), he would be a Democrat’s wet dream.

        Go Christie go.  

        1. yeah, the donut-chomping red-faced sweatin’ mess would work himself into a triple bypass if he ever tried to run.

          Sorry but Christie is a never-run for POTUS since last man-boobed fat dude was Taft in 1908 (well before TV or internets).  

          Stay Puft Christie is a one-term Gov that then moves to Sen.    

  11. Romney was out campaigning for Republicans of every stripe in 2010 with little national fanfare  He also has a number of other assets the establishments likes, he’s not Sarah Palin, he has money and he’s articulate not to mention looks good on camera.

    There will be anti-Mormon opposition like there was anti-Catholic with JFK. My mother was one of them but when the chips were down and the dust settled, guess how she voted?  It sure wasn’t for Nixon.

    1. And the bottom.  Anyway, the sort of people who fear people practicing certain religions on principle aren’t going to vote for a Muslim over a Mormon.

      My little blue heart is holding out hope for someone a tad bit more painful to listen to.

      1. talking about the Republican primary here, so I am not sure that the Muslim/Mormon thing would be relevant until the general. It would only matter in terms of Romneys’ electability in that race.

        As for the primary, I chose “someone else” because I didn’t see anyone on that list that has the ability to unify the Republican party. I think it would require the second coming of St. Reagan the Divine to pull that one off.

        2. I gotta re-learn that history!  😉

          To be fair, no one has to “unite” the party, they only have to break off the biggest half.  See Bennet v Romanoff.

          I did vote Romney because I think that a hardcore tea bagger (the smaller half) will be pissed at being sold out and support the most radical idiot out there.  More moderate Republicans will be happily looking for a Great White Hope, the classic conservative.  That’s Romney.  Or so says me.  I’m aware that I don’t think like a Republican, thank God.  Much like watching a sport on TV, I always know exactly what the idiot coach should have done.  We’d be overrun!

  12. Because, I can’t wait for the joint FOX/TLC special where Kate and the kids all get to visit the White House and help out with the Christmas reindeer butchering.

            2. yeah the wasilla hillbilly has the ego to run but POTUS salary couldn’t fill her closets anymore.  $arah likes tweetin’ because 140 characters is about all her enfeebled fundie brain can deal with and, just like a mean girl, sniping from the sidelines is always more fun.

              $arah will run early and drop out citing too much media scrutiny & not enuff time w/ Trog.  Then she’ll cash her Faux paychecks as a go-to pundit.  She’ll also have a sit down w/ the bonafide GOP candidates so she apply her litmus test and give the $arah stamp of approval to her mindless mass of followers.    

      1. if he’s smart enough to fly away before the sixth shot (and if he’s not corralled in some hunting preserve pen).

        (Warning: a caribou will eventually be shot in this video, don’t watch it if that sort of thing bothers you.)

        Wonder how many of one-shot Anny Oakley’s other misses weren’t included in the edited film footage.

  13.   Where to start:  Out of hundreds of polls that have come out over the last year Sarah is getting 75%+ of all republican votes

     She smoked biden in their one and only debate so I don’t know which one y’all watched.

     She is the only one with executive leadership abilities and who accomplished all of her campaign promises in 2/3 of her governorship.

     She is the only candidate with CIC leadership ability.  The 249th air command.

     She is the only candidate that managed to put together a 49 billion gas pipe line deal for America and Alaska.

     She is the only one with 18+ years of public service and not just being a politician.

     And if the republican party does not want to back her for president, that’s fine, they can go the way of the whigs and torys, and disappear.

    1. I can’t tell.  There is so much demonstrably factually wrong with this I thought it was a joke, but then I remembered that Palin supporters tend to be semi literate, prone to misrepresentation and woefully uninformed.

    2. If you want your first post ever to be taken seriously, you might want to provide a link or two to those “hundreds of polls.”

      Or, if this is tongue in cheek … well done! You make a convincing whack job.

    5. it was her “you betcha” along with that sly wink that made you lose the pleats in your khakis.  You’re smitten like a little lovesick 3rd grader tagging your emails w/ “SP luv WH – 4evah”

      So you’re on record having supported $arah for 16 years now, which is amazing since she was just on the Wasilla City Council back in ’94.  But hey buddy you & your oathkeepers know a real thing (just like the original intent of the Constitution authors).  

      Oh yeah and that little rant: “The left, i.e. commies, socialists and obama supporters are the crazies who WILL use violence against us and we need to be prepared,” that you dropped over on Conservdumbs4Palin pretty well tells me what ColPols is dealing with here.  

      Wish you had more to offer than boilerplate $arah bromides.  

  14. Tons of electrons wasted on the interwebz about Newt Gingrich’s election chances, but in the “Sane Republican Branch”of the GOP, could Colin rally enough Indies that voted for Obama, but are now fed up with him?

    1. He can’t primary as a Republican because the two remaining members of the “Sane Republican Branch of the GOP”, even though sane, are still going to hold it against him for endorsing Obama over McCain.

  16. Romney is a little too establishment for the Baggers plus he has that whole Romneycare issue. Add the Mormon thing on top and he’s most likely out of 2012.

    Pawlenty is establishment enough to reel in the non-bagger Republicans, hasn’t been an insanse right-winger so he may be able to win over some of the moderates. In order to offset the establishment stank of Pawlenty, they’ll put Palin on the ticket again to satisfy all the Baggers.

    Palin will be seen as less risky this time around since she’s been to Haiti (foreign policy? Check.), Facebooked prolifically about taxes (Economics? Check.), and Tweeted about Park51 (Domestic Policy? Check.). Plus she wouldn’t be running with a cancer-ridden old guy.

    1. this before, EK76, and you didn’t answer me. What makes you think that the massive ego of the half-guv would ever fill the backup role on a presidential ticket?

      Seriously, I want to know what you see that I don’t.

  17. is charisma challenged. He’s a generic country club Republican tool. Not much going on behind the curtain that I can see.

    It is the Dems wet dream for Palin to be anywhere near the Rep ticket, but I don’t think she’ll even try seriously. she’s making obscene amounts of money now and I think that is all she’s in it for. She could have earned her stripes by finishing her term as gov, but she lost cred with that resignation and people know it.

    I think it will be somebody else, I don’t know who yet.

  18. Palin and Romney both represent a party archetype (Teahadist vs Fat Cat Businessman), and for one to win the nom, one of those archetypes has to take a fall.  Looking at 2010, I don’t see that happening (and no, I don’t see Sarah P settling for VP again). Repubs want it both ways to appeal to both of their bases.  

    I’m watching for a wealthy power-broker who can also appeal to “Bubba.”  Basically the Bush II image, but  more substance (as they’ll need it to hold the coalition together).  Newt ‘plays’ the part, but both bases see through him.  So, the guy  who fits the bill would seem to be Barbour.  He’s got a record of service, and he can serve as the “grown up” who’ll be above all the bickering.

    Long shot, I know, and he’ll need an image make-over (I’d say about 15 pounds of it!) to sell in the General, but I think  he’s one to watch.

      1. JO’s on to something in the story on this.  A ‘gaffe’ this early seems more like testing the waters to me.  

        Nothing that happens in 2010 is going to hold much sway in 2012, and better to just put this out there now.  If it doesn’t stick, Barbour is through his first presidential hurdle.

  19. I think it will be the Man Called Petraeus. He will be fresh off his successful campaign in Afghanistan which he could have won if it weren’t for the liberals and he doesn’t have a track record except for civil rights abuses and he was just following orders.  That little matter of the Staff Sergeant’s nine year old was well hushed up. (joke)  

    Actually, since the media prints everything (the typist who signs Her Name) tweets and makes it a story, I think they will continue to let Palin get away with it.  Reagan and W showed that you don’t need knowledge, curiosity or facts to be elected.  W showed you don’t even have to be able to read your lines.  I think she will get a free ride because there are no adult Republicans left.

  20. not that I want it but wouldn’t take much to crank up the Bushie machine for a 3rd go ’round.

    He’s the most reasonable of the bunch.  He’d tack center right as a way of reclaiming sanity for the GOP.  He’s tanned and rested with a personal family history (wife & children) to reel in some hispanic votes.

    1. such a bad president, but he would have to change his name.

      The next Bush, if any, to achieve national office will probably be a woman. George screwed up the dynasty thing. It’ll be two generations before that family will be able to wash Dubyas’ legacy out of their collective hair.    

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