President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Kamala Harris
(R) Donald Trump
80%↑
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) V. Archuleta
98%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Marshall Dawson
95%
5%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(R) Jeff Hurd
(D) Adam Frisch
52%↑
48%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(D) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank
(D) River Gassen
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) John Fabbricatore
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen
(R) Sergei Matveyuk
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
52%↑
48%↓
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
November 01, 2010 11:49 PM UTC
16 Comments
I don’t think that’s close enough to save any contested Dems except Hick and Perlmutter. That said, Bennet’s in with a shot, based on the “exit” polling showing that people who have actually voted are supporting him at a greater rate than most poll’s sample of “likely” voters.
a Democrat needs about 63% of the unaffiliated vote to win a statewide race.
If Democrats continue to their tendency to be disproportionately last minute voters, and overperform a little on election day relative to early voting and mail-in ballots, than a Democrat needs a little less of the unaffiliated vote to win a statewide race.
Of course, the flip side of that is that where unaffiliated voters are relatively random and don’t have a strong preference one way or the other, the Republican will win in a statewide race.
The voter turnout percentages also suggest to the extent that there are typical across the state, that there will be few upsets in state or federal legislative districts, or counties, with a strong partisan leaning one way or the other.
… than the R wins D votes. I think the odds are decent (if I remember cross-tabs I’d seen from some Buck/Bennet polls) that Bennet will win, say, 5% more Rs than Buck wins Ds — which would give Bennet back 40,000 votes, or 2% of the total vote count.
moderate Rs defecting to bennet more than right-wing ds to buck.
Bear in mind that the polls showing Bennet up by a point or two persist even with Rs. casting a greater share of their vote as an early vote.
It’s still up for grabs but the numbers to date are cautiously optimistic for Ds, who have a much better gotv than buck and whatever passes for a Republican party these days.
V-ger, I thought I just disagreed with you. Now it’s clear you’ve gone off the deep end. You’re going to be in for a rude awakening tomorrow night.
You are a congenital liar. You would lie on credit when you could tell the truth for cash.
We’re fundamentally different people.
But the real test is our GOTV efforts tonight and tomorrow.
b/c we’ve all been quoting polls showing that of those who already voted, it’s Bennet 50 to Buck 45 or thereabouts — those are pollsters asking hundreds of folks in random samples, and two such polls have come up with about the same margin.
And you didn’t get any support in it.
The zombie vote will be supressed.
the bastards!