New Senate Poll: Et Tu PPP?

PPP did polling over the weekend in the Senate race.  Even the Daily Kos official pollster now has Buck leading Bennet, 49-48.  http://www.publicpolicypolling…  This is kind of like a Republican being behind in the Rasmussen poll.  The key takeaway, Buck leads Independents 50-46.  Bennet gets 87% of Dems, Buck 86% of Republicans.  

The interesting part is to track the PPP polling in the last three polls.  They interviewed from September 30th through October 2nd and had Bennet up by one, 45-46.  They conducted interviews of October 21-23rd and were the only polling shop that had Buck going up during that time frame, having them tied 47-47.  Now, half way through the election they have Buck up 49-48.

It would seem looking at the cumulative national polls, Buck had about a 3-5% lead about a month ago.  I personally don’t buy the PPP October 2 poll and believe the uptick between the Oct 2 poll and the October 23 poll were a function of PPP and not the voters.  I think Buck’s lead narrowed to about 1 or 2% right before early voting and now it is back up to about a 3-5% lead.

19 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. This is not a Daily Kos PPP poll (and Kos is using both SUSA and PPP for polling, because neither could provide in a single contract all of the data Kos wanted).

    Of course, there’s good news in this poll for Bennet – he’s up substantially among early voters, 52-46, and inevitably people who say they’ll vote on election day are less likely to vote than people who’ve already voted. 🙂

    Two other polls released over the weekend confirm the tight race (surprise, surprise…)  A Marist/McClatchy poll has Buck up 49-45, while a YouGov poll has Bennet up 49-48.

    Both of those polls also show Bennet up in early voting, and more importantly, both also show Bennet up in the Registered voter sample.  If Democrats can get their people to the polls to vote, Bennet wins tomorrow.

  2. Colorado Pols says:

    It has been a tossup for weeks. No polls are varying outside of this general range of 1-2 points one way or the other.

  3. EmeraldKnight76 says:

    and I watch all three, are all watching this race very closely. Nearly all of them are calling this the closest Senate race this election cycle and preparing themselves for the nearly inevitable recount.

    H-man can break out and spin all the polls he wants and try to get them to say Buck has this in the bag. Doesn’t make it true. This race is absolutely going to come down to GOTV and who convinced the indies as well as grabbing some of the other sides’ supporters.

    Should be a very tense evening tomorrow. Wish I could be at the Dem party! I’ll be there in spirit though.

  4. bjwilson83 says:

    PPP always skews left in the beginning, but they have been adjusting their polls to reflect reality.

  5. colawman says:

    Latest mail-in ballot returns shows Republicans starting tomorrow with a 61000 advantage. With PPP stating Buck now enjoying a lead among independents the race is over.  You all can mock the obvious but you are not going to get better. Denial is your enemy. You need to recognize the inevitable and begin your healing process. I will gladly accept your apologies for doubting us small band of conservatives who have tried to convince you. I will check frequently starting at 7:00 pm tomorrow for the outpourings of “you were right, we were wrong.”  I am a classy guy and will not be posting and I told you so’s.  

  6. I see more like a 15-18% shift from each party to “Unaffiliated” and a clear 41% of “Unaffiliated Voters” sticking with “Unaffiliated.”

    Number one reason, the “negative ad onslaught deluge flood” on TV, by the Buck n’ Bennet circus didn’t help them, it hurt them even within their own camps.  Sorry.

    I disagree. I see myself winning with 37% of the vote. Maybe, I am wrong, I am clueless and I never ran for political office before.

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