7 thoughts on “Rass: Buck +4, CNN Buck +1”

1. b/c with the R registration advantage, I don’t see how Bennet possibly wins if he loses independents like that. Put differently:

   – I think Bennet will win more Rs (liberal Rs) than Buck wins Ds, but to only a small degree

   – I think Bennet can win independents, but it’s far from certain, and he needs to win indeps by more than a negligible degree to counteract the R voting edge

   I do think Buck is more likely to win, but Bennet can win if (a) the R wave doesn’t materialize too heavily and (b) Bennet wins indeps by a half.decent margin.

   Rasmussen is running about 4-5 pts more Republican in most races nationally (I’m following polls on RealCleearPolitics religiously) — but I don’t see that as evidence they’re crap. Rasmussen is just assuming a big R turnout edge — which is certainly possible (I wouldn’t bet against it), but I think less certain than we all assumed a few weeks ago.

   Log in to Reply

   1. with the differences in turn out with Rs looking like +7 to me, if Beenet loses the Independents he can’t win.  Unfortnately the independent polling is all over the place so now it is pretty much guess work.  I though Rasmussen has been pretty much middle of the road in terms of the model.

      So far the Repulican Dem split has been growing each time they put out new numbers.  Yestereday’s differential was 6.6%.

      Log in to Reply

      1. Here’s Bennet’s victory scenario:

         1) R voter edge of only 4-5%; it’s now 6% but Rs have proven more likely to vote early in the past, so the current 6% edge seems likely to drop a bit.

         2) Bennet shaves off a point of that R voter edge by winning more liberal Rs than Buck wins conservative Ds — possible, but not certain.

         3) Bennet still needs independents to make up the 3-4% partisan gap. But there aren’t that many independents voting; let’s assume they’ll be just 25% of voters (they’re now 22% now but probably fewer are voting early b/c they’re not targeted by party vote-early GOTV). So to make up a 3-4% partisan gapBennet needs to win independents by about 12 points. I think that’s possible, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

         To be clear, H: I’m not painting the Bennet victory scenario to say “he’s gonna do it and here’s how!” I’m mainly pointing out (a) it’s quite possible but (b) Bennet needs several things to go right, so my money still is on Buck.

         Log in to Reply

         1. Add to H-man’s note above: the MOE in subgroups like independents is extraordinarily high in any of these polls, so the contradictory results could all be telling us the same thing. Gauging U turnout is hard this year too.  

            Log in to Reply

            1. My own un-empirical theory is this: late in a hotly contested race, undecideds are disproportionately fickle ignorami. I shouldn’t overstate this: I could see some thoughtful centrist voters genuinely undecided based on finding neither candidate perfect, etc. But c’mon, with so much difference between Bennet and Buck, and so much at stake with each Senate seat nationally, if you’re undecided it means you likely don’t care much, or don’t pay attention to information you receive. And if you’re this ignorant this late in the game, like Neon Nurse’s “who’s Helicopter Garcia” friend,” you either (a) won’t vote or (b) will vote based on random impressions. So the undecideds tend to get pretty random this late in the game. Which is to say that when you have such a tie this late, it’s a coin toss.

               Log in to Reply

            2. R’s are crossing over
               
               and
               
               People lie to pollsters.

               Log in to Reply
2. Log in to Reply