From Magellan Strategies (R):
Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies today released the results of an automated survey of 1,067 likely voters in the state of Colorado looking at the race for Governor. The findings show Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper and former Congressman Tom Tancredo in a statistical tie. Among likely voters, Democrat John Hickenlooper has 44%, American Constitution Party candidate Tom Tancredo has 43%, and embattled Republican candidate Dan Maes has 9% support. The generic “other candidate” has 2%, and only 2% responded as undecided.
Since our Colorado Governor survey on August 25th, support for Dan Maes has plummeted from 27% to 9%, a total of 18 points. It is clear the vast majority of former Dan Maes supporters are moving into the Tom Tancredo column. Since our August survey, support for Tom Tancredo has increased from 17% to 43%, a total of 27 points. John Hickenlooper has not been able to reach the crucial 50% threshold, and has in fact dropped 2 points since our August survey, from 46% to 44%.
It would be easy to dismiss this (and some of you surely already have), but it shows a continuation of the overlying trend in the polling of this race over the last couple of months. Dan Maes’ support is plummeting, Mayor Hickenlooper is maintaining a level of support in the mid 40s, and Tancredo is picking up the aforementioned mass exodus of former Maes voters.
I don’t delude myself. I still can’t quite conceive of a Tancredo victory without Maes exiting the race and endorsing him (which appears about as likely as Hickenlooper exiting the race and endorsing Maes). There are too few voters yet undecided, and if I had to put a number on it, I would say this poll likely overstates Tancredo’s support by two to three points. But it’s clear that outside of Denver, Mayor Hickenlooper isn’t energizing Colorado voters.
At RealClearPolitics, the average level of support for Hickenlooper has not been below 43.8 nor above 46.8 at any point this year. If it weren’t a three way race, it would be tough to imagine how Hickenlooper would have defeated any half-way credible generic Republican.
You must be logged in to post a comment.
BY: JohnInDenver
IN: Colorado GOP Peeing Its Collective Pants Over Trump Visit
BY: JohnInDenver
IN: Trump Calls His Own Bluff On Aurora
BY: kwtree
IN: Arizona Republican Party Sends Second Mail Piece for Gabe Evans
BY: Ben Folds5
IN: Trump Calls His Own Bluff On Aurora
BY: spaceman2021
IN: Colorado GOP Peeing Its Collective Pants Over Trump Visit
BY: spaceman2021
IN: Trump Calls His Own Bluff On Aurora
BY: harrydoby
IN: Trump Calls His Own Bluff On Aurora
BY: harrydoby
IN: Colorado GOP Peeing Its Collective Pants Over Trump Visit
BY: Conserv. Head Banger
IN: Colorado GOP Peeing Its Collective Pants Over Trump Visit
BY: Genghis
IN: Colorado GOP Peeing Its Collective Pants Over Trump Visit
Subscribe to our monthly newsletter to stay in the loop with regular updates!
You mean the same one that’s been posted at least three times before in various places?
I appreciate that people can’t be here all day, every day, but do a quick search (or even a glance through recent diaries) before posting. Please.
Especially since there are actually good comments associated with the other posts. Not from the shills, but actual discussion among more legitimate thinkers. Which your analysis seems to kinda fit under.
…both recently showed Tancredo within the margin of error. Magellan Strategies is not the same as Rasmussen. Ergo, ANOTHER poll.
That almost sounded like a compliment. I must have read it wrong…
The problem, of course, is there was no half-way credible Republican in sight — at least not after the meltdown of McInnis. Had Tancredo competed in the primary , he’d be toast by now — hammered for months of attack ads at his incredibly vulnerable extreme positions.
I am going to give Hickenlooper $100 to buy powerball tickets, on condition that he gives me half his winnings. He meets Napoleon’s standard of what he wanted in his marshalls — Luck.
I honestly think Josh Penry would have beaten Hickenlooper. But this Mongolian Cluster Fuck known as Indecision 2010 has only one winner for governor, and it’s Hick.
Tancredo might get “Miss Congeniality”– if he was congenial, that is…
I think both Hickenlooper and Tancredo have gotten an easy go of it. Especially Tancredo, as Hickenlooper had no reason until the past week or two to even think this was a race. Thus the zebra striped suits and ads of him showering repeatedly to remove the stain of negativity. I’m sure that match-up (head to head) would have much been closer than Ritter’s victory in 2006, but I’m inclined to believe it would have resulted in a Hickenlooper win for the reasons you state.
which isn’t slanted toward Republican sampling, like Magellan and Rasmussen, came out with its OWN poll this morning that says Maes at 9 percent, Tanc at 39 percent and Hickenlooper at 49 percent, “more than Maes and Tancredo combined.”
When you take out the over-sampling of Republicans, like Magellan and Rasmussen do, you get something likely to be a LOT more accurate.
Rasmussen and Magellan?