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October 15, 2010 04:12 AM UTC

Nov. 3

  • 6 Comments
  • by: JO

Assumptions (open to debate, of course):

–Hickenlooper wins with a plurality.

–Bennet loses.

–Markey wins, Salazar loses.

–State legislature, both houses, slim Republican majorities.

–Hickenlooper becomes to Democrats what Nelson Rockefeller was to Republicans: governs from the center-right, tries to persuade Republicans to “be more reasonable.” More spending cuts; tax freeze; encourages oil shale developers as source of jobs & tax revenue; supports legal challenge to health care reform bill.

Nationally:

–Democrats retain majority in Senate (e.g. 52-48).

–Republicans win majority in House.

Republicans in both houses persist in strategy of ’08-’10: Just Say No.

–Economy: sluggish growth, persistent high unemployment; paralysis in federal government ushers in rerun of Japan of the ’90s.

1. Who is the effective state Democratic leader? Or is there one?

2. What course do Democrats follow to swing Colorado back to bluish-purple in time for ’12? Choices:

 a) Follow Hickenlooper to the right (“Republicans, but not quite as much”).

 b) Shift left to take advantage of voter discontent in two years.

Comments

6 thoughts on “Nov. 3

  1. Gardner has way more support. Any doubt was erased at the Old Fashioned Political Rally. And voter discontent will be aimed squarely at Obama as he vetoes measure after measure that would create jobs and get our economy going. You know, all those pro-business bills. The left loves to hate business. I predict Dems will shift right to try to hold on to Colorado, and still lose. Why not buy the real thing?

      1. …and can’t name even ONE such bill, I’ll let your silence confirm that there aren’t any such bills vetoed by Obama. See, no need to cast aspersions: you show show us who, and what, you are just by putting fingers to keyboard. Thanks for the confirmation.

        Back to today’s research topic: Does the circumference of the crust divided by the diameter of a cherry equal pie? Hmmmmm.  

  2. Is that just gut?  I’d think opposite if anyone loses, but don’t really have a reason.  So just curious.

    I think that the state other place will have a two Dem lead.  I get that from a bitter, Republican lobbyist I work with sometimes.  Not that I’m so easily swayed, but that’s the house she prefers to work with and wouldn’t give the Dems much benefit of the election doubt.

    I agree that our House will see a loss of majority.  If Kerr survives, I think he’ll be Minority Leader and he’ll do it well.

    Your Hickenlooper prediction is probably pretty spot on.  Of course, any successful governor is going to lead from the center.  It may not look like it if the Republicans are running bills just for the veto.  Which wouldn’t surprise me.  Judging by the tone of this election, the right has learned nothing at all during their exile.

    The economy prediction is, IMO, a bit off.  Conservatives have long specialized in boom and bust.  Liberals work in steady growth.  I really think that’s what we’ll see.  No majorities are going to be spectacular, but Dems will still be signing on every level.  I think that that means we’ll see Dem bills with compromises.  On a state level at least, I believe that’s how it works best.

    1. Who is the effective state Democratic leader? Or is there one? – We could see several strong Dems emerge.  Like I said above, Kerr is a possibility.  I still like Rice.  I’m even anxious for Fields to get started, see where that goes.  Ferrandino would be great too.  Kennedy will be term limited this time next month, giving her a little more leeway.  I could go on.  They’re out there, they’re active.  Colorado’s party will be fine.

    2. What course do Democrats follow to swing Colorado back to bluish-purple in time for ’12? – Think your choices are both off there too.  In spite of what May thinks “lost” Colorado, the national results don’t back that up.  The reason the Dems came to power here was good ol’ fashioned leadership.  Even in a minority position.  It wasn’t dissatisfaction with the GOP that swung, it was watching things get better and leg work.  I thought of that every time I saw someone call Romanoff a “hack” or worse.  I digress…

    Nationally, sadly, I suspect that voter dissatisfaction will still be pushed on the Dems.  All the GOP will have to do is push crap through, see it vetoed, refuse to compromise, and claim it would’ve saved a billion jobs and more taxpayer money than you can even imagine.  The only way we’re going to see the pissed off swing back is if the GOP is in power.  Or the ACP…

    I almost wish the Tanc would pull it off just to prove how fucking stupid he is.  All of his plans are either unconstitutional or terrible.  So if he somehow won, he’s either going to be left holding his dick next year and trying to fake it, or being constantly sued at taxpayer’s expense.  That could generate a swing.  Obama losing in 2012 could cause a similar swing in 2016.  No change in that level of leadership means no swing.  Tough shit rule.  I’m not sure how much it can be helped.

    Wow.  I usually don’t run on so long.  I’m out of town for a week or two on business, so I won’t be here to respond to any responses.  If you have an opinion though, I’d love to read it.  So write it and I’ll read it when I get back.  Even though by then we may already know some answers.  🙂

    1. Markey, Salazar. A passing thought, not a prognostication based on a scientific study of Rasmussen polls. There are a couple of third party types on the ballot in CD4, including an ACP candidate, who I thought might siphon off enough votes for let Markey squeak by. I don’t own any cowboy boots, so I don’t pretend to know anything about the Far Western Slope.

      To me, the more significant factor is Hickenlooper. IF he wins (by a plurality, not a majority), and IF other marginal Dems lose, then some might conclude that the way to win in Colorado is to become Republican Lite. It’s a conclusion that I think a lot of people, including many on this site, reached long ago.

      Too bad. Those policies led us to the Great Recession and will prevent a recovery that will generate enough jobs to reduce the current rate and employ people coming into the market for the first time. As I mentioned, example is Japan in the 1990s: anemic growth, not exactly a recession but not exactly a recovery either, in our case, with a government in Washington paralyzed, unable to take effective action.

      Not without a domestic precedent either: Roosevelt in ’37 or ’38, finally saved by Lend Lease and WWII. Given how long our economy has depended on military spending (M-I complex and all that), hard to see who is going to lead the4 way out, with some difficult (to say the very least) adjustments.

      My real question is whether Colorado Democrats will conclude that GOP-Lite is the right formula for this state based on what I perceive as frustration by voters whose idea of fixing problems doesn’t go beyond “throw the bastards out.”

      I don’t happen to think the American Fundamentalists are especially far right or out of reach of the Democrats. Their leaders, yes; but rank and file, no. They are, mostly, prime candidates for Democratic evangelizing–but some education is needed. I’m talking teach-ins, serious exposure to economics. Simple-minded sloganeering will get Dems where they are right now: wondering what went wrong. Check out this article in the Guardian: “Inside the Tea Party.” http://www.guardian.co.uk/worl

  3. I hope Stan Garnett wins but I think that Colorado is going to stay with the setting-free-a-murderer John Suthers.  It’s depressing I tell you. What is wrong with Colorado?

    Another important point to remember, The progressives are so “fucking retarded” that we forgot to vote Democrat.  It’s okay though because it doesn’t matter, most Democrats are the new Republicans.  We’re doomed no matter how these elections go except for AG now that race really matters.  

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