President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Kamala Harris
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) V. Archuleta
98%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Marshall Dawson
95%
5%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
50%
50%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(D) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank
(D) River Gassen
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) John Fabbricatore
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen
(R) Sergei Matveyuk
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
70%↑
30%
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
October 08, 2010 09:58 PM UTC
60 Comments
It’s obviously partisan hackery. Gardner will win in a landslide, Buck by a decisive margin, and Frazier and Tipton will win in very close races.
(no “anymore” here though)
Partisan hackery us your stock and trade.
You owe me a soda.
ProgressiveCowgirl @ Fri Oct 08, 2010 at 13:14:48 PM MDT
ThillyWabbit @ Fri Oct 08, 2010 at 13:15:10 PM MDT
(OK, not EXACTLY jinx, but close enough)
…a relatively ineffective candidate. He’s lucky he’s better at legislating than campaigning, and that his district would be toss-up to right-leaning in a normal year. But Betsy Markey handed him the keys when she voted for HCR.
Buck will win by a decisive margin, agreed. No real question there in my mind.
Tipton will be very close. Frazier should also be very close, as he’s easily the best candidate Republicans have in 2010, although he had the biggest hill to climb. Not ready to predict a winner in either of these races, as polling is virtually non-existent and what we do have could be way off in either direction. I am optimistic though…
As for the Big Line…it has always been a joke. Ken Buck has never been tied or led on TBL, and yet there has been only one poll giving Michael Bennet a lead (1 point, at that) in over a month. RCP has Buck at an average lead of 4.4%. ‘Nuff said.
Need to see more polling on the Frazier and Tipton races, but they have both been up in the past.
But I will say that the trend matches what you might expect. Cory up 11, Tipton up 8, and Frazier up 1.
We shall see…
In his wildest dreams,maybe.
There hasn’t been any (public) polling in the 3rd that I’m aware of. Off-shoots of statewide polls with a small sample of the 3rd just don’t cut it.
Anybody know of one that’s been done properly with a high sample number and not Razzy?
As Frazier is polling at +1, Tipton is polling at +8, and Gardner has polled at +11 and is averaging +7.
As noted above, I don’t think you can tell all that much–one way or another–from a single poll. Perhaps you can tell if a race is competitive–and all three of these clearly are–but not much more than that.
When you get to page 5, it becomes a push poll.
Thanks anyway for playing, Papa Smurf.
You’re still a n00b, so you’re not familiar with Pols’ track record.
I fully believe in it but for curiosity’s sake, I’d kinda like to see how accurate they’ve been. I’m guessing 85-90%?
but I’ll testify from memory that they called all the big ones correctly, if at times having odds that didn’t jibe with how close the contest ended up being.
I’ll just make a couple notes. First, you could accurately “predict” the outcome of 90% of races just by picking the incumbent in ALL races in almost any given year. Second, Pols has only been doing TBL as far as I can tell in a short period of history where Democrats–their default selection–have done very well. This election will be their first test as far as true accuracy goes. They may pick them right, they may pick them wrong, but their short history of picks tells us nothing.
The didn’t pick Dems because of bias, they picked Dems because they were more likely to win in the last few elections. And they did.
You will notice that they moved several R’s up to the same as the Dem candidates. If so badly biased, I doubt they would have done that.
From my distance, TBL looks just about right.
We’ll find out soon enough.
…possibly since the 1940s for Republicans, they have moved 3 races out of 8 competitive races into a tie. They consider not one single Republican a favorite. Not the incumbent John Suthers. Not Buck, who is consistently outpolling his opponent by 5-8 points. Not Cory Gardner, who could win by double digits.
I would hazard a guess that out of the nine races listed on The Big Line, a Republican WILL win 7, possibly 8, and a clean sweep isn’t out of the question. But TBL predicts Democrats WILL win 5, probably 6 or 7, and possibly 8. They think Democrats can win every single one of these competitive races? Are they nutz?
But my point remains, don’t confuse bad judgment with partisanship. You know, like you are doing.
Their batting average is good, not because they picked Dems, but because they weighted all the facts and arrived at conclusions. Good ones.
Don’t you have to, um, wait for the votes to be counted before deciding that?
bercause after the election he will be so embarrassed he won’t show his face for a month.
…where their unusually large mouth is, and get no takers. Put up or shut up.
that Hickenlooper will be the next gov.
You want to match the bet: Even money. I get hick. If either Maes or Tancredo wins, you collect.
Deal, big mouth? Or do you want to go back to momma’s basement and blog some more.
…some info that the other 5 million people in this state don’t, but…
However, if you’d like to make the same bet on the Senate race, or CD-4, please do let me know.
I only like sure things.
a long time ago. You have no special right to anyone’s money.
It’s kind of funny how Republicans hate paying taxes but still think they’re entitled to other people’s money on demand.
I’d call it hypocrisy if I thought Republicans believed in anything but winning.
…the loser’s money go to a charity of the winner’s choice (mine was Susan G. Komen). I could care less about your money. I just want everyone to start backing up their rhetoric.
An unverified promise of where money will go in the future is worth so much more than an unverifited statement of where money has gone before.
…if you are questioning whether or not I would follow through, I’m happy to place my share in escrow with a trusted member of the Pols community.
n/t
Your choice. $100 on Bennet/Buck? $250?
I choose $1 million. On Thielen or Bennet/Buck. Please see him for your voucher. I can’t point to your reality voucher but I can’t say it doesn’t exist. Don’t stop believin’
n/t
You don’t understand Jambalese.
Perfectly clear to the rest of us.
I lost my password and figured I’d just start over. Jambalese never made much sense to me. Just sounds like idiot rambling, although usually there are enough talking points mixed in that I can string them together to form a relatively coherent thought. In this case, not so much.
were you under the sad impression that your ostensible wager made any sense to start with? Welcome back to COPOLS to me, I say, welcome back hard.
Dan Maes is 25:1 and Flerlage is 45:1
R u f’ng insane? I know it’s hard to do powers in html, and I also understand that TBL is not for actual betting.
But first of all, Maes is at least 44:1. And Flerlage was over in Jan 2010?! I know you don’t mean Jan 2009 – he hadn’t announced yet. But in Feb 09 when he announced that he didn’t need big fundraising because he was going to run an issues based campaign. Uh-huh
You started in ’04? It hasn’t taken a genius to pick Dem winners in the last three cycles.
But for this cycle, you:
A. Forgot to undo the Dem default settings
B. Have an undisclosed Dem+10 spread
C. Really are smarter than the average lucid American.
How many real upsets can you point to have predicted? Otherwise, I think you fall into B., giving points to Dems. Afterall, you did pick Coffman; Flerlage won’t cover your spread.
Your current line leaves you with little chance to claim C. in November. Not a lot of courage to update with even odds but verbally call for Dems. I suppose you could claim credit if Salazar beats Tipton by 5+.
But we don’t begrudge you the privilege.
On another matter related to the Big Line (but not to your comment), the Grand Junction Daily Sentinel actually endorsed Cary Kennedy today.
to think straight, and you libs like Ralphie never got that.
to stand in the way of love, but your obsessive crush with Ralphie is starting to border on creepy, sweetie.
It ‘s been creepy for some time.
Try to imagine for a second just how creepy it is from mine.
I found the comet again tonite in my big binos.
Not on the merits, but because a bookie that offered 4-1 or 5-1 odds on both candidates in two candidate races would make people who played both sides to hedge their bets very rich.
I know, I know, these are “emotional oddds” and not mathematical ones. But, oy vey!
with a point spread. Hick (-15) for example.
But then what would we fight about?
Oh yeah, the points. So it doesn’t make any difference.
To me, that seems like the one race where Pols has never beeen realistic. Hope Pols is right but haven’t seen anything to indicate it was ever Garnett ahead and now tied. I’d love to see it but just don’t.
going to do an Election Day prediction contest like you did last cycle (I believe)?
Pick winners & losers with margin for the 8 races listed at left (not CO-6). Ties determined by smallest combined margin differential between predictions and results.
Gov. turnout could be 2nd tie-breaker.
And not even sure why it matters, but how is Ken Buck falling at 5-1? Was he higher before you updated? I honestly can’t remember.
…Pols uses to suggest that his position has gotten worse since the last update of TBL. Doesn’t necessarily mean they dropped his odds (they didn’t–he always trailed Bennet).
(mine don’t deserve their own diary). In decreasing order of certainty:
Governor: Hickenlooper
CD7: Perlmutter
AG: Suthers
Senate: Buck
SoS: Buescher
CD3: Salazar
CD4: Markey
Treasurer: Stapleton
I’ll be voting for the Democratic candidate in all of these races.
I won’t be voting for the Democratic candidate in all of these races, because I live in CD6.
You need to add Big Line(s) for control of State Legislature (or House/Senate separately). Especially with re-districting coming up this is a noteworthy consideration.
“General protest” is only going to happen if people are paying at least some attention. Anyone even paying marginal attention can’t have missed the good news coming out of that office. There weren’t fireworks or anything, but it was on all the local news networks.
If that were going to happen at all I’d vote in the SOS race. “Absolute mess”, I think you mean no one knows who this guy is. Perfect protest vote.
Maybe you’re right, but if so, those two races should look more alike.
….I would forsake that butt to the Gods because your cause and your reasoning are too ephemeral to be counted on.
Let us be thankful that money has poured into the races in Colorado, and wonder why we are so blessed. It’s not like I avoid Jeopardy every night to avoid political commercials. Those bithces call me at work, robostyle……if I had a job, that is. Suthers will win, BTW. So it is written…
…correct spelling is not a sign
I was in Douglas County the other day, and kept seeing signs for Mike Coffman. And for the life of me, I couldn’t figure out what he could possibly be running for!
I knew he wasn’t Secretary of State anymore, but had totally forgotten he was in Congress. Of course, I don’t live in his district either.