Two weeks ago, a CNN/Time poll had Buck up by 5 points, 49-44. When Rasmussen had Buck up by 8 points last week, 51-43, it was a flawed poll. Next Buck was up by a Marist poll by 8 points 50-42. Over the weekend 9News and the Denver Post released a poll showing Buck up 5 points, 48-43. All of these polls can be accessed by this link. http://www.realclearpolitics.c…
ColoradoPolsters, progressives and Dems largely remained in denial. The favored pollster of the left and Daily Kos, PPP, had not been heard from.
Today two new polls came out. Rasmussen released a poll showing Buck up by 5 points, 50-45, http://www.rasmussenreports.co… and now the Dem-Daily Kos pollster PPP has released its first poll in months on this race.
Guess what? The Dem poll by PPP has Bennet up by 1 point, 46 to 45. http://publicpolicypolling.blo…
So what is the difference? The independents who all other polling has breaking for Buck, PPP has going for Bennet 48%-38%. The 9News Denver Post poll released on Sunday has Buck winning the Independents 53% to 34%. For those who think the Independents are breaking for Bennet by 10%, they should find this poll reassuring.
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Polls are only as precise as your polling sample and technique. If the polling sample exactly matches the voting population, and the questions elicit honest replies, your poll will be very accurate. What all these polls say is that this is a very close race, polling within the moe for weeks and tightening. Even Ras (feh) shows it’s tightening.
But that’s ok. While I’m out canvassing, you stay here on Pols. I’ll be telling strangers how I think privatized social security would work. You be complaining about not getting enough front page respect and too much signature line disrespect. I’ll be telling single moms about how contraception should be illegal and their doctor should check with the gov’t before advising them about their medical choices. You can find some more polls.
Finally, I’ll be telling anyone with a Buck sign how Buck has reversed every significant policy position from the primary to the general, except not wearing women’s shoes and being covered with bullshit.
You can be whining about how math is hard. If you can keep your mouth empty enough. (ht/dp)
If PPP is greatly out of line with multiple other polls by several organizations, it may be an outlier. It is entirely appropriate to point that out and question an outlier result.
PPP is newest- suggesting either it’s an outlier with a flawed sample or technique, or that this race is getting closer.
I believe it’s getting closer- as Ras shows too.
And I think they were all in the moe.
is that Republican voters have been showing higher than usual among likely voters, and that Democrats will return to the fold and get excited as the election approaches. There’s a good reason for this — it’s always easier to stir people up against something, which is why the Beck-inspired and Koch Brothers-financed last year has been so successful.
The fact is, no one knows how to measure likely voters this year, so different pollsters returning different results (all, as MADCO points out, within the margin of error) shouldn’t be surprising. No one except Buck’s blogging cheerleaders thinks this is anything but a dead heat.
But while you’re doing that, I’ll be out there telling people the truth, and the truth will win in the end.
… is that the GOP and their moneyed interests are using the “tea party” and none of the “tea party’s” vision (other than tax breaks for the wealthy and deregulation that works against the average joe’s interests) will be realized if the GOP dream of congressional takeover in 2010 and White House takeback in 2012 comes to pass.
The Tea Party decided to take over the GOP instead of become a third party, and they succeeded wonderfully. The DeMint caucus will hold their feet to the fire.
Just keep telling yourself that, and meet me back here in 2014 – again, assuming all your wild dreams about a GOP takeover come true.
Oh, beej, you’re such a comedian. You mean the Koch Brothers ordered … but, sure, the way you put it sounds better. Goes down easier that way.
I understand you need it to motivate your base, but the Tea Party is a decentralized movement. There were a lot of different people who considered trying to start a third party and ultimately decided against it. In fact I think Limbaugh brought up the point first. Of course Dems dumped him as the bogeyman in favor of Beck a long time ago. Apparently it’s not working with Beck, so now you have to switch to the Koch brothers?
Including Tom Tancredo.
So instead of starting one, he joined one.
But the teaparty without AFP and FW and billionaire money just wouldn’t be anything newsworthy.
Republicans don’t like the D administration!
McCain voters no pleased with Obama!
According to Buck ,his campaign and its supporters, it’s called successful campaigning.
Campaigning on truth! Bennet could learn something.
He illegally seizes tax records, and was forced into ethical training.
That’s 1st year law.
How about your medical records?
Your social security number?
What other rights does Mr. Buck seek to abrogate?
If you include independent voters that other polls didn’t, your going to get different results.
Also, the margin of error on subsamples is always greater than the margin of error for the entire sample, so subsample estimates are inherently volatile.
Hang out on COPols, watch football, go to the movies. Why worry?
Repubs can work on their costumes –Nancy Pelosi! Anchor baby! Pat Stryker! — and count on the wave carrying real Americans back in to power.