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September 22, 2010 04:48 PM UTC

Independents to Dems: Why have you forsaken us?

  • 5 Comments
  • by: H-man

No Dem in Colorado, including Polis, can get elected to federal office without the help of Independents.  The extent of required help varies.  The necessity does not.  So is this key voting group lining up nicely behind the incumbent Democrats seeking election.  Are they appropriately appreciative of the legislative accomplishments of Obamacare and the multiple acts of self-stimulation?  It would appear not.

The National Review http://www.nationalreview.com/… and Wall Street Journal http://online.wsj.com/article/…  both have articles  this morning about the largest polling done on independents. The results suggest a remarkable shift towards the Republicans in a manner that is clearly not understood by local Polsters.

The National Review perceives the shift not to be one of policy but of values.  They note:

• Among independents, 89 percent believe government . . . needs to go on a diet.

• Independents believe that what would help most with a national recovery is cutting spending (65 percent) and cutting taxes (44 percent).

• 49 percent believe the Democratic leadership has not only addressed the economic crisis the wrong way, but have made it worse.

Another important take away, particularly as the Dems in Colorado try to make social issues the gotcha issues, what do independents think the gotcha issues are?  The poll asked voters to assume you agree with a candidate on every issue save one, would you still vote for him to get to the issues that might tip the scale.  I know the Polsters are all thinking abortion based on the analysis done by the Bennet campaign.  Here are the top three:

1. Healthcare 48% (83% oppose Obamacare)

2. Ground Zero mosque

3. Size of government and spending

So what does all this mean as election day approaches?  Here are the numbers from the Wall Street Journal:

Today, independents say they lean more toward the Republican Party than the Democratic Party, 50% to 25%, and that the Republican Party is closer to their views by 52% to 30%. This movement comes in spite of independents’ generally negative views of the GOP-a majority of independents (54%) view the Republicans unfavorably, compared to 39% who have a favorable impression. (The poll also revealed that 48% of independents were either “sympathetic to or supporters of the tea party.”)

Yet Republicans still have a 14-point lead overall among independents who say they intend to vote in the upcoming congressional elections (37% to 23%). Forty percent remain undecided. Independents who say they are certain to vote in the upcoming election break better than two-to-one for the Republicans, 42% to 20%.

If you look at the relative enthusiasm of the Republicans and understand what is important to Independents this cycle, the following becomes pretty obvious.  The 2-0 in the Senate and 5-2 in the House Dem majorities from Colorado is over. It will shortly be 1-1 and either 3-4 or 2-5 the other way.

Comments

5 thoughts on “Independents to Dems: Why have you forsaken us?

  1. but have consistently been too much of a coward to actually bet on it with any of the reasonable people here.

    Sounds like maybe you think polling done by the Wall Street Journal and National Review might be making your side a little undeservedly optimistic.

    Independents can speak for themselves. They don’t need extremist right-wingers impersonating them.

    1. But I only wanted to make 1 bet and that seemed like a good one for me.

      Current polling has 1-1 in the Senate, 4-3 Republican for the House.  My guess is the closest race will be Frazier.  Right now it is the Salazar race.  I see things trending better for Republicans over the next 6 weeks, not worse.

      1. Anyone who thinks he has a sure thing is a sucker not to take a bet on it. You clearly have your doubts when it comes to putting your money where your mouth is. Therefore nobody should really take your opinion seriously.

  2. If the highly anticipated by the hard right sweep of the elections by the GOP comes to pass, I predict a lot of teabaggers asking the same question of their “grass roots,” Palin-endorsed candidates in two years.

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