CO-04 (Special Election)
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(R) Greg Lopez
(R) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Joe Biden*
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%↓
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
90%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
90%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
(R) Ron Hanks
40%
30%
20%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(R) Deborah Flora
(R) J. Sonnenberg
30%↑
15%↑
10%↓
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Dave Williams
(R) Jeff Crank
50%↓
50%↑
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
90%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) Brittany Pettersen
85%↑
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
(R) Janak Joshi
60%↑
35%↓
30%↑
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
September 21, 2010 04:34 PM UTC
57 Comments
I stopped reading after, “CD-1 in play?”
Better luck next time.
I want some of what H-man is smoking.
It’s great, though, because whenever somebody needs to prove that H-man is 100% shill with no attachment to reality whatsoever, they can link to this post.
As for the NRCC, it’s good to see they have money to waste like this. I hope they keep wasting money.
This is clearly the rantings of a pill popper.
(Pharmaceuticals are “good for you” don’t-ya-know)
he will be sacrificed?
with the “newer” contract ON America coming out today. Do the republicans really think the voters are that stupid?
I mean REALLY!! it is the republicans failure to lead and their belief in wealthy people spending money. Coupled with their desire to socialize costs while privatizing profits that created this economic mess.
now they think they can do better than before? BULL
You can only do so much for a drunk.
Or is this affirmative action for rightie shills?
The point of this is to show that the “young guns” campaign is just wasting their money and/or that a young gun designation doesnt really reflect the ability to win.
So in play, in fact, that the NRCC should put all its resources there.
There is a whole lot of uncertainty as to how many seats will fall. Is this one likely? Not in my view. Out of the question? Not in the NRCC’s view.
I have been guessing a 50 seat pick up in the house for Republicans for months. That is pretty close to where the expert consensus is now. I am pretty sure it is going to be over 20, in which case Markey is gone. Where does it have to go for CD-1 to be up for grabs? Probably over 80.
If the Dems with a straight face say they will hold the house, my guess is Republicans thinking 80 seats is about as well grounded.
This is about as much of a longshot as the Dems spending resources in CD5 on Jay Fawcett in 2006. Yes, that was a “who knows what the size of the wave is going to be” bet.
The difference, though, is that the NRCC isn’t pledging a dime to this guy. Not. One. Dime. Read closely. They’ve added him to a list. A list that is two whole levels below “Young Guns” designation. Anybody can make a list. The DCCC could make a list today and say that they were adding John Flerlege and Kevin Bradley to the “Blue Sky Program” (or whatever name they can come up with). That doesn’t suddenly mean CD6 or CD5 are any more competitive.
CD1 is just as competitive today as it was a week ago. And everybody who knows anything about Colorado politics knows that.
DeGette should be out on her ass, even if it was to another Dem.
Why Romanoff didn’t just primary her instead of Bennet is beyond me.
I seem to remember you being willing to take on Princess Diana…
Was asked if I was interested in doing it, but I’m too busy, I love hanging with my kids, and I don’t really feel like DeGette spending $2 million to find underpants/bong/whatever pictures of me from college or whatever would be a constructive use of my time.
Denver really deserves better than this, though. Some Dem should primary her.
Unfortunately, she’s what we get.
And you’re right, running against her as a Republican is a Sisyphean task if there ever was one.
This is about causing DeGette to be piggy and spend money on her reelection rather than donating to Democrats around the country who really need it. No way DeGette loses but she may spend her money close to home rather than spreading it around and that is all the GOP is hoping for.
1. DeGette never really does anything to help other candidates anyway.
2. This is not going to make DeGette any more worried about re-election than she was last week…which was not at all.
Our only guess here is that perhaps Republicans are hoping to get some earned media showing that Democrats are in trouble everywhere. Perhaps some gullible reporters will pick this up as news, but that’s about all they could hope for.
Pols, you’re wrong here… DeGette helps A LOT… as a key whip in the caucus, she helps determine where money is directed…. and as the dean of the CO delegation her input matters. In 2006 she helped me a lot… even came to Fort Collins with a few of her congressional colleagues for a big rally. ok, so I didn’t win the seat, but I certainly put it in play for 2008. And DeGette helped make it happen. Give credit where it’s due. Just sayin’
…as a resident in her district, the woman is a Sphinx when she’s here, and seems to be more concerned with her position in Washington than in Denver Highlands.
If I can and ask about Stem Cell research, Domestic Violence or a variety of health care issues, I’ll get a response.
But for example, veterans issues she (and her office) COULD GIVE A CRAP. This, even though there are 1200 veterans attending school at Auraria Campus, and the current VA hospital is (currently) still in her district.
Did they rip off Burt Bacharach?
She’s played the Dems in CD-1 for rubes for every year she’s held office. If you represent one of the few issues she likes (stem cell) she MIGHT send you an email back.
The Repubs have Lamborn, the Dems have DeGette.
If you’re the Health Care Industry or Big Pharma, she’ll gladly cash your PAC check and do whatever they want.
DeGette can spend enough to crush Dr. GOP Pawn and still have enough left over for the NEXT Campaign.
(Though, I do find it interesting that they chose someone else who’ll gorge themselves at the trough of the Medical Industry….)
If the good Dr. can take her out that would be very cool. Not just swinging the seat GOP, but also punching a hole in the DEM leadership bench in Congress. Quite the long shot, but if it will make DEMs scramble to spend $$ that would normally be spent elsewhere… Yeah, why not?
I praised your other post handicapping the odds, where you expressed very realistic views on who might win: Buck and Tipton likely; Gardner extremely likely; Frazier an outside shot. We may quibble about the exact odds, but I thought you were part of the sane wing of Pols able to take off the ideological blinders to make predictions.
But THIS? Saying the R has a chance in hell against DeGette, who won 72% last time in an urban district with a 30-point Dem advantage… well, that’s just stupid wishful thinking, as silly as the Big Line.
I imagine your response will be “I didn’t say he WILL win, I just said, ‘who knows’?” But face it, you’re indicating a belief that Fallon is something more than the standard hopeless sacrificial lamb running out of some combination of (a) delusion (eg Charley Miller), (b) hoping scandal hits DeGette last-minute, and (c) ingratiating himself to party leaders so he can get appointed something, or maybe run a real race next time.
And with $15K, Fallon can’t afford anything close to the Denver TV saturation necessary to give him more than trivial ID, much less to persuade voters.
Fallon would need an 80 seat swing to be in play. I thought it interesting that the NRSC is looking that deep as possibilities.
Press releases are free.
Let us know when they drop some serious coin on the race.
… b/c DeGette is about as safe as they come. Is Pelosi’s challenger, Bob McNobody, also a “Young Gun”?
then the US House will have 400+ REPUBs.
This diary is hilarious. Thanks for a chuckle, H-man. I especially enjoyed rereading about your crush for Nate Silver in this diary from yesterday. In case you have forgotten, here are a few of your adoring comments:
and
and
But what happened last night? Didn’t Nate pay for your dinner date? Or did he stand you up completely? Because in today’s diary you seem doubtful about Nate Silver’s ability to accurately capture the dynamics of the race in CD-1.
So, 56-72% chances are a “sure thing” but a 100% chance leaves room for doubt? Awwwwww, this is so key-uuuute. I just want to pinch your cheeks.
Seriously, I feel for you, H-man. Rejection by your first man-crush was, I’m sure, devastating. Stand tall, have hope, yadda yadda, there will be more love in your future. Somewhere out there is the pollster/statistician for you. (Have you returned any of the calls from Mr. Rasmussen?)
There’s no point. A Democrat cannot lose here.
As long as the Democratic candidate has enough moral scruples to avoid pedophilia, bestiality, or taking food from starving children, then yes losing CD-1 is something you have to work at.
DeGette will be polling soon.
Fallon has been working hard
But CD-1 is saturated w/ Fallon signs.
I’ve never seen so many for the R candidate.
Which for some reason don’t note that Dr. Fallon’s a Republican. Not that you couldn’t tell by reading the “Issues” section of his website, which pretty much repeats the cookie cutter talking points most GOP/Tea Party candidates are parroting this year. “Limit government spending to Constitutionally authorized programs.” Meaning privatize or eliminate Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, school lunch programs, etc., right Dr. F?
Nice to see a Republican for a change who’s clearly not a bigot regarding gays, but come on. “Repeal the death tax?” “Promote charter schools?” Sorry, but while some GOP candidate might have a shot in CD-1 under some circumstance some day, a Dick Armey/Grover Norquist clone isn’t going to be the one.
But nothing close to “saturation,” at least in that area, where I live, walk the dog and spend a lot of time. No doubt the good doctor’s neighbors on his block are sporting his signs…
Wash Park, Platte Park, Arapahoe Acres…
running for office for a political party in a viable seat is to start by making a strong showing compared to prior candidates in a hopeless one.
Fallon is doing that. CD-1 is a safe place for a novice GOP candidate to learn the ropes and show that he can handle the basic tasks associated with running a campaign.
While he has no shot at all of winning in 2010, it wouldn’t be at all surprising if CD-1 or a CD adjacent to it (perhaps CD-7) were made securely Democratic safe after redistricting, and if Fallon were to make a good show in 2010 (perhaps limiting DeGette to 60% of the vote instead of 72%), he might be given the nod to try a winnable district for some office in the future.
There are more Fallon signs than any CD-1 R candidate than I’ve seen in my ten years here.
I’ll count them on the way home (4.5 miles) and give you a count.
I’ll be sitting here waiting for an accurate count. Don’t let me down.
Rode my bike yeasterday, and the signs are on the big streets, not the side streets.
3 Fallon
2 Hick, Buck
1 Tanc, Bennet, No on 62, No “Bad Three”
0 DeGette
and DeGette still wins this election.
The Broncos have a better chance of beating Payton Manning next Sunday.
Any candidate with any semblance of ties to the tea-party or what constitutes the current Republican Party, is going to be laughed out of CD-1.
The day H-Man jumped the shark. Way to go!
…they are a much better way of mocking Republicans than those easy-as-pie frontal attacks. Merci!
He probably took it as a compliment.