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March 31, 2020 06:31 AM UTC

Tuesday Open Thread

  • 42 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

“As contagion of sickness makes sickness, contagion of trust can make trust.”

–Marianne Moore

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42 thoughts on “Tuesday Open Thread”

  2. WOTD from Paul Campos at Lawyers Guns and Money "A PLAGUE OF LIBERTARIANS"

    I was planning to compose a takedown of Richard Epstein’s arguments for letting The Market sort out the COVID-19 pandemic, before the heavy hand of clumsy government intervention should ruin this wonderful little Hayekian experiment, but in true efficiency-regarding fashion he took care of that task himself.

    Richard Epstein is a law professor, not a scientist or a doctor. However, as a lawyer he considers himself well-qualified to cross-examine climate researchers and epidemiologists to find flaws in their arguments. He explains that climate change is a fraud because the consequences are not "imminent". A couple of weeks ago he found flaws in the COVID epidemic models and realized that there would only be 50,000 COVID deaths worldwide, and 500 within the US. You may be thinking "well that was stupid. Actually, it's more of a farce-tragedy, because Epstein's article was printed and passed around at the White House.

    Isaac Chotiner at the New Yorker does us the service of interviewing Richard Epstein. As Scott Lemiux describes it: "Sometimes Even the Peter and Kirsten Bedford Senior Fellow of the Hoover Institution Must Have to Stand Naked":

    allow me to present perhaps the greatest Chotiner interview ever. I won’t even try to excerpt; it’s flawless, like the greatest Guest/Shearer/McKean project since This is Spinal Tap.  It’s like galaxies beyond Dunning–Kruger at this point.

    The New Yorker interview is a gem. A well-deserved take down of a "Fatuous Ass", as he is described at MahaBlog: "The Virus vs. Our Ruling Fatuous Asses".

    1. More from Paul Campos's article:

      Epstein’s calculations have had a significant effect on the ongoing White House discussions of what to do about COVID-19; I’ve been told by someone with direct knowledge of those discussions that Jared Kushner in particular was impressed with the cogency of this eminent scholar’s arguments. (Kushner is apparently leading a sort of shadow White House task forceon the issue).

      Now onto some other diseases:

      It’s a great mistake to think that the problem here is that Epstein is straying from his area of scholarly expertise into unrelated fields, in the classic manner of physicists or engineers who think that knowing how to analyze particle energies or bridge load tolerances equip them to opine on totally unrelated matters.

      This is a mistake because Epstein has no scholarly expertise to begin with. Epstein has spent more than a half century now purveying glib bullshit as serious scholarship, and getting away with doing so for reasons that sociologists of knowledge would, I think, find quite fascinating if any among them should ever choose to do an ethnography of elite American law schools.

      Epstein’s career path is this: he was an undergrad, then he was a law student, then he was a law professor. That’s it. That’s all he’s ever done. He’s never had a job as a lawyer, or indeed as anything but a professor, at least not as an adult anyway. Furthermore he never seems to have gotten any formal postgraduate education, unless you count law school, which you really shouldn’t.

      1. " . . . spent more than a half century now purveying glib bullshit as serious scholarship, . . . "

        Dang! This was one of my life goals – but I didn't achieve it.

         

      2. No matter what you or anyone else says, I’ll be gawddammed if I ‘m gonna’ ever blame Ttump’s imbecile stupid, or that of any if his slathering toadies, on anyone else!  Evah!

        . . . And that includes Ivanka (because of genetics) and also Jared (‘cuz he had to be stupid before all this just to first-round qualify to limbo under the stupid-bar into the Orange family circlejerk).

        Yeah, Epstein’s a fucking lawyer willfully ignorant douche.  But, that doesn’t make him Ttump’s chicken, or his egg.

        PS  When did anyone in this Whitest House start reading???

    2. Your reference to MahaBlog is priceless and needs highlighting:

      It appears that Epstein’s work of contrarian genius circulated rapidly — one could almost say virally — among the captains of Big Capital. I think it’s fair to say they were (and are) collectively shit-scared by the plunging stock market, the spiking unemployment numbers and, most of all, by the hypothetical possibility of losing their financial and ideological hegemony over the vast, rigged shell game of the global economy.

      The old, inbred, decadent aristocracies that held absolute power in feudal times needed courtiers who catered to their greed and egos, and today’s aristocrats are no different. The key to success in America today isn’t hard work, talent, smarts, or good grades. It’s money and connections. And if you weren’t born into the aristocracy, you can become a member in good standing by providing pseudo-intellectual / propaganda support services to help the privileged and inbred stay in power — in other words, by telling the ruling overlords what they want to hear. Thus Richard Epstein.

    3. Is this guy;s former name Laffer?

      One of the first questions anyone should ask of any projection for anything anywhere –

      Is this a boundary solution?
      Does the projection make mathematical sense (ie, does 2+2 = 4.0)?

      These guys start with a desired policy recommendation and then stuff their model and projections in whatever box required to support that.
      Laffer: cut my taxes for upper incomes.
      This guy: do notfuck with my stock portfolio – I never knew Burr was the guy to grease.

      Jail time or execution. Either would make high ratings tv.
       

  3. Lemmee’ see here, class: . . .

    0

    2

    15

    100,000 to 200,000

    ???

    Home school mathematics/current events QOTD:

    1.  What is the number “???”  (Show your work.)

    2.  After completing #1, graph the curve and assign it the corresponding algebraic function that best approximates this graph.

    Bonus question:  Is your graph best described as, “linear,” “exponential,” “hyperbolic,” “Perfect,” “WTF,” “Ttumptastic,” “holy $&!ing  #%€*,” “unforgivable,” “beyond all comprehension,” “a total hoax,” “free market fondling,” or, “teacher needs a good strong drink bottle” ???  Explain.

     

  4. Welcome to Candidate Donation Day!  This is a critical quarter end for candidate fundraising. 

    My list includes Biden, Hickenlooper, Crow, Mark Kelly (AZ) and Amy McGrath (KY) and the Arapahoe County Dems.  Any other suggestions?

      1. Done.  Well, except for AOC.  Surely you jest.  Although, per DailyKos she's backing off her support for Bernie and catching hell for it from those adorable Bernie Bros.

        Also, my state rep. Tom Sullivan.  (I've already donated to my state senate candidate Chris Kolker.)

        Elections have consequences!

  5. I hit the democratic national committee and the democratic senatorial campaign committee.  Plus flameouts like kamala, amy and elizabeth.  Sigh, not the year of the woman, redux.  But maybe Whitmer as veep to seal the presidency?

      1. Who is the quote from, Michael? Just curious if it’s from Carville, or?

        Many, not all, of the folks who like to magnify the policy disagreements and keep stirring the pot are trolls or fake accounts paid by domestic or foreign opposition.

        We know Russia loves to widen the rifts between  Democrats.
        I tracked down the original tweet from Briahna Joy Gray. While it was insensitive of Gray to talk about dying from cancer with Kamala Harris, whose mother did, I thought that Gray had a valid logical point: 

        If testing and treatment for coronavirus should be free, then what about testing and treatment for other deadly diseases, or at least treatment on a sliding scale that doesn’t bankrupt people?
        Harris was advocating for a transition to Medicare for All, so she probably agrees in principle. I don’t see this as an “attack” on Harris as much as an attempt to pin Biden’s likely VP down on healthcare policy. But Gray is Sanders’ press secretary, and Gray probably intended to throw shade on Biden by  questioning Harris. Poor timing and word choice on Gray’s part. 

        As for Stein, she is staying well out of the fracas this time around, which is good since she allowed herself to be used by Putin last time. Stein’s lawsuit alleging voting machine undercount is still in court, and may help curb PA voter suppression.

        All this is a tempest in a teapot, with the real tempest howling at our doors and snatching up our loved ones. . We know we’re going to have to get behind the nominees, probably Biden /Harris, in order to defeat Trump.
         

         Ridiculing people who have policy differences as MAGA wearing “left wing trash” that “sits on Tucker Carlson’s lap” brings heat and fog, not light and clarity, to the presidential race.  It helps nothing.

        You know I greatly respect you and agree with you 90% of the time. I just don’t think that this quote has any wisdom to offer. 

        1. It’s from a newsletter I get every day called “Today’s Big Stuff” authored by Adam Parkhomenko.  I get newsletters daily from both sides of the aisle and I find I often benefit from his comedic style of writing. (I’m no fan of Jill Stein)

          We lost our first Wray resident this morning for COVID (she passed in the Greeley hospital). They believe she contracted the virus in her doctor’s office and was staying with her daughter who lives there when she was diagnosed so I think she’s counted as a Weld County casualty.

          1. Different strokes for different folks, I guess. I won’t be subscribing to Parkhomenko’s newsletter any time soon.

            Sorry to hear about your Wray neighbor.

            My sister is still (after 12 days) waiting on results of a covid19 test. But she and her doctor both think she has the virus, on top of her existing health challenges. She is fighting it with her usual intrepid humor and creative approach. She went to be tested in the drive-through- dressed in her son’s dinosaur onesie- to make the doctor laugh. It worked.

            Her naturopathic doctor recommends treating symptoms in the upper respiratory tract and not letting the virus get a foothold in the lungs or chest. So far, it’s working and she’s feeling better. 
             

            This is from her TedX talk, on “The gifts of cancer”. It applies to anyone today worried about the health and well being of loved ones.

            1. He’s always good for a belly laugh over morning coffee. I laugh at my conservative newsletters for a different reason! It’s like laughing at Catholic jokes: you should only laugh at them if you’re Catholic! Someone was taking a shot at my lady Kamala so I had a natural trigger built in.  Hoping the best for your sister ❤️

  6. Startling estimates regarding unemployment from the St. Louis Federal Reserve

    In my college economics classes, we were taught that GDP = NI (national income).  

    We have a $24 trillion economy, or $2 trillion a month.  That represents both GDP and NI.  We just passed a $2.2 trillion (sort of) stimulus bill.  But with stay at home orders, the unemployment figures for March could hit 32%.  This will not improve in April, and possibly not in May or June if social distancing continues to shutter businesses.  If we lose 1/3 of our income each month for several months, that implies a loss of around $650 billion per month.

    With a substantial number of families living paycheck to paycheck, the logical conclusion is that we will need further paycheck support for the essentials (food, rent/mortgage) for roughly a third of households until the economy can be rebooted once it is safe(r) to return to work.

    Nancy Pelosi is already at work on the next bill that should include that and more — potentially putting infrastructure projects back on the table.

    1. That sounds like FREE STUFF with is communism which is worse than the cure,

      Americans love socialism when they are getting paid.

      Maybe Mexico and China will team up and pay for it.

      Or we take over Venezuela.*

      * the problem in venezuela wasn’t socialism – it was corruption and oligarchy

    2. So how come the lauded job creators that we bend over backwards for and give tax cuts to aren't creating jobs? Don't they have a machine or something that just creates them? I mean, if they're job creators then how come they're not just creating them out of thin air? Maybe we need to force them to manufacture these jobs? 

      It could be that labor is prior to capital and therefore a vital and necessary component to the whole thing, meaning that labor should have more power within economic decision making since labor can exist without capital but capital can't exist without labor. 

      But, no, it must be that job creators are a real thing and they're just on strike.

      1. Speak of the Devil!

        As of Monday, seven of the Trump Organization’s 10 top-grossing properties were closed. Those that remained open were at a fraction of their usual capacity: Trump’s hotels in Chicago, New York and Washington had all closed their bars and restaurants in response to local orders.

        The company has now laid off more than 550 workers at its hotels, according to government filings and people familiar with the properties. Occupancy at the D.C. hotel recently was about 5 percent

        America has more than 1 million restaurants and other food service locations, supporting more than 15 million jobs, according to the National Restaurant Association.

        Major retailers are also shedding workers en masse, as Macy’s announced Monday it will furlough most of its 125,000 workers due to the closure of 775 stores. Kohl’s and Gap announced furloughs of 80,000 each.

        And all of those were announced *after* the 3.3 million unemployment claims filed just last week.

        Economists will be busy modeling the effects of having that much cash pumped into the economy paired with the loss of productivity.  That is the formula for runaway inflation.  We actually will need a wealth tax to vacuum up excess money, while continuing to transfer wealth back into the middle and lower classes (the folks that actually create and fill most jobs).

      2. Historically, jobs have been best created out of thin air, yes; but, it’s a special kind of polluted thin-air . . .

        . . . hence, the EPA rollbacks. (Probably also screwing the Indians, and rushing to build more wall in Arizona . . . It stinks to high heaven, so it counts.)

         Ttump and PutinCo’s totally got this — even the socialists, who really don’t want to be saved, are still gonna’ be saved by the very best benevolent kinds of crony capitalism and corporate stock repurchases.

        The invisible fist understands clearly that it’s really pollution, and walls (instead of hospitals), and revoked reservations, that are going to do the heavy savioring we need to salvage this crisis of CEO stock options values, not government mandated masks and ventilators for doctors and nurses to black market.

      3. FWIW: read this AM on Yahoo that there are hundreds of thousands of job openings now at WalMart, Albertsons (includes Safeway), Amazon, and other places. Yep, probably a lot of minimum wage jobs. But many of those laid off hospitality, bar , and restaurant workers were getting less than minimum wage, plus tips. 

        1. The Safeway at Hampden and Logan in Englewood has a large sign when you come in the front door asking for people to sign up for open jobs. And has had it there for a couple of weeks.

              1. I know that the entire above discussion is well-intentioned, but am I only only one here with an off taste in their mouth about how easily It seems we’re willing to offer those already hurting, and who have already been making the lowest wages in our society and also the ones who are unlikely to have any or adequate health coverage, up to the maw of the increased likelihood of dangerous contagion, so that those of us lucky enough to be able to work, shelter, and social-distance, in place at home (at least for now) can more comfortably be able to continue doing just that?

                Also, the fact that there have been, what? In excess of three-million new unemployment claims filed in just March — “hundreds of thousands” of below living wage temporary jobs without health coverage seems kinda’ pale by comparison — Congratulations, you just hit the poor-folks lottery! But hey, if you can luckily find one, it’ll at least be a slow, toilsome, dangerous, low-wage demise . . .

                . . . while they wait for their $1,200 FOAD “you’re on your own now, buddy” Ttump-autographed souvenir check. “Here, go buy yourself one last good asskickin’ weekend of meth and painkillers, on me”!

                2. Dio — I'm sure we all know someone, friends and family, that have been either furloughed or laid off due to this crisis (two of my wife's oldest friends — one in retail, the other in hospitality, my nieces and nephews, etc.).  My wife's business revenue has cratered, but she is working to keep her staff on the payroll throughout this time while working with her clients to provide them with the help they need to cope during this crisis.

                  But I do apologize for my droll comment above that seemed to slight the workers who right now provide the lifeline to millions of us so that we may survive this pandemic.

                  1. My apologies.  I’m not upset at you, or anyone else here.  I honestly do know that everything said was well intentioned.

                    Right now I’m vacillating, myself, daily between coping fairly (and personally, suprisingly) well and being bothered and angry about just about everything — including myself, for what I might be thinking, and also for being angry and bothered; bothered by my being bothered . . . 

                    The thought just struck me last night, that if this conversation were occurring among the well-intentioned — how truly vile and heartless the conversation, as it pertains to ordinary people, among the Orange elite, must be?

                    Ttumpmerica sucks.  Compare our leaderless and clueless response to any of this situation with Europe — from initial nonresponse, to supporting their citizens, to ensuring people are paid enough to live even when they can’t work.  I don’t want to be blinded to the fact that what our national government’s response is a trifle, a sham, a carnival barker Emperor with no clothes.

                    My good friend MADCO is right — “IWW” — the same as it ever was; and also there’s no fixing it — only the silly and marginal ever try.  C’est la vie — truly.  (And, if that’s not the way he intended it, well, that’s the way I’m taking it.)

                    Sorry for the misunderstanding I created by venting.

                    PS. I thought your google-amazon comment was funny, and also too true in its intended point. (Droll is one of my favorites, along with ironic, surreal, dark, absurd, and just plain immature.)

                    1. I share your frustrations and anger.  Let’s all commit to do our best helping those that we can emotionally, financially, or physically. 

                      And of course doing everything we can to hand the GOP the most crushing defeat imaginable so that they never again are in a position to impose their perverted, dystopian worldview upon our nation, or anywhere else in the world, insuring their ideas are condemned as a pariah to the world.

  8. There was a big fire today at Boyer's Coffee. No one injured, thankfully, but the footage and photos look bad. We saw the smoke all the way up here in Broomfield.

  9. Hunch-O-The-Day:

    “I alone can save . . .

    . . . all but one-quarter million of . . .

    . . . you!

    Believe me.  Believe me.”

    March 31,2020

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