As The Ft. Collins Coloradoan reports:
Democrat Betsy Markey and Republican Cory Gardner are in a dead heat with less than eight weeks until Election Day, according to a poll released today by the Markey campaign.
The poll is a stark contrast to one released last week by a Republican-affiliated group, which showed Gardner with an 11 point lead.
The Markey campaign poll showed her and Gardner with 38 percent each, independent Ken “Wasko” Waszkiewicz at 5 percent and American Constitution Party candidate Doug Aden at 2 percent. The remaining 17 percent were undecided.
We wrote last week that any poll in CD-4 that does not include all four candidates cannot be considered accurate, and these numbers prove our point (not to mention the most recent U.S. Senate poll in Colorado, which showed the Libertarian candidate getting 5% of the vote). As we said before, CD-4 has a history of voting for third-party candidates, and national trends are showing disgust with both Democrats and Republicans. Third-party candidates are going to play a significant role in 2010 as a “protest vote” option for many voters. We wrote last week that internal polling from both the Markey and Gardner campaigns had shown third-party candidates receiving as much as 12% of the vote when respondents had a choice between all four candidates; the Markey poll has the total third-party vote at 7%, but that’s likely because they sampled a smaller percentage of Unaffiliated voters.
While critics will say that the Markey poll must be biased because it is an internal poll, it’s hard for that argument to get much traction given the significant oversample of Republicans. This poll sampled 50% Republicans and 37% Democrats, compared to 44% Republicans and 36% Democrats in last week’s Republican-ordered poll.
H-man, Bj and Libertad’s heads exploding.
I thought it was weird Markey would be trailing… close trailing maybe, but not ought right losing.
Direct from the Coloradoan
Can you say Ouch? Like a kick to the crotch from the man at 1600 Penn.
This follows last weeks story that cited inside DC Democrats revealing that the DCCC would be cutting off Markey.
If you read the full article you would know that Rahm actually cancelled three events for members because he cancelled his whole Chicago trip for, as the White House actually said, reasons that should be obvious…I.e. With everyone speculating that Rahm might be running for mayor of Chicago, it was going to be a circus.
So yeah…no. Had nothing to do with Markey and you know it. But thanks for trying!
even important things
Rahm cancels Markey (and Debbie Halverson and Allen Boyd) because the Chicago press would turn the events into press conferences about his plans for running for Mayor. Pretty standard stuff in cases like this…but hey, feel free to continue to believe your delusions.
Nice try, indeed.
I am sure this just frees up more time for Betsy to explain her votes on Obamacare and Cap and Trade etc, etc.
Nothing but good news for the endangered one here on ColoradoPols.
you can stop beating it now.
Health care vote = Helps people even you Hman
cap and trade. = Oil companies have flourished with Tax breaks for years even posting record profits quarter after quarter… it is about time Oil paid their fare share. Other energy technologies should have a tax break the Oil companies have had. like Solar and Wind.
How much of Tancredo’s ACP vote will continue down the line to his fellow standard-bearer Doug Aden?
I’m sort of dumbfounded as to how Wacky Wasko is polling ahead of Aden. The district has shown it will vote third-party, but never Independent.
“Third-party” can often just mean “not Democrats or Republicans.”
I think that over time, as Tommy the Tank raises ACP’s name recognition, Doug Aden’s numbers will trend upwards.
86 percent of the voters in this supposedly “rural” district live in the Front Range urban counties of Larimer, Weld and Boulder. I hail from eastern Colorado, and grew up not far from Cory’s Yuma County. But I’m not sure the GOP has adapted to the fact that this district, despite its rural tradition, is so overwhelmingly urban.
I deeply respected Cory’s work on water issues, including the Republican River aquifer issue. But do they really care about it in the Front Range? And does Cory’s record, so well adapted to Eastern Colorado, travel well to the Front Range?
So far, I’m not convinced.
Remember Amendment 52, which would have put significant handcuffs on DNR, in order to fund highway, particularly I-70 into the Mountains, development?
Now, I’m not saying that we shouldn’t makes some changes to I-70, but to take money away from DNR, and all state water products (which DNR administers), is a debatable idea. To do this in a manner which forces that math on legislators forever (i.e., as a Constitutional Amendment), is just irresponsible.
I grant you that Cory’s a nice guy, but this kind of judgment (since, he was one of the authors), is appalling.
Ref: Rocky Mtn. News Editorial Againt 52.
Who was it who managed to actually fund development of the Arkansas Conduit, a product that was approved in the Kennedy administration, but never supported by representatives until 2009?
I believe that was Rep. Betsy Markey, working with Rep. John Salazar.
Are breaking R in record numbers.
Bye bye, Betsey. Shouldn’t have voted for Obamacare when Nancy told you to.
The only surprise is that you beat both H-man and BJ to the punch.
Laughing boy is made of sterner stuff. It comes from living on our planet.
that allowing people with pre-existing conditions to obtain affordable health care is the ruin of America. He gloated and boasted before that vote also. If nothing else the guy is consistent in his worldview that everyone loves Republicans who do nothing.
Hickenlooper for governor. Beej and H-man are still stoutly predicting a win for Tin Foil Danny Maes.
Nobody takes your predictions seriously.
You were also saying it was far from over and way too early to rule out Maes, etc. You giving up hope now?
The locked in split between the tank man and the tin foil man is all but impossible to ovrcome.
The only potential game changer, one of them drops out, seems rather remote.
So she had to release her own poll which shows her tied. Want to know what poll the guys are going to use in DC to turn off the faucet. Here is what former President Clinton’s political advisor wrote about a poll that they have back in DC about the race. It is from an article in Real Clear Politics http://www.realclearpolitics.c…
When an incumbent candidate release their own polling after labor day and she does not crack 40%, it is over guys. Undecideds break away from incumbents.
The poll you cite, RealClearPolitics, ONLY compares Gardner and Markey. As was stated at the beginning of this diary, any poll that does not include the other two candidates is not likely to be as accurate. RCP ONLY looks at Gardner and Markey. Don’t start counting your chickens yet.
Yes one of “President Clinton’s former advisors” – who also goes by the name of Dick Morris – said in a completely unsubstantiated and wildly inaccurate op-ed that he had an imaginary poll with Gardner up by 20. Have you seen that poll? I haven’t and neither has anyone else…because it doesn’t exist.
Please don’t try and plead your completely asinine case by citing Dick Morris’ fantasies.
Want to guess what poll Dems in DC are going to use to determine their support? Are you honestly saying that the Democratic Party is going to trust DICK MORRIS’ imaginary ramblings over real numbers from a credible firm? If you do you are even stupider than I thought.
And btw…where are the internals from Gardner’s campaign? I haven’t seen anything yet? Think they might not be releasing them because they say the same thing as Markey’s poll? Think also that Markey’s folks may have held off on doing this poll and releasing these numbers because the ballot was just certified last week?
But no…hey…I’m sure your right. Please…go on listening to Dick. Worked out well for Republicans last time right?
This was done out of weakness because the Markey campaign does not want the narrative that she can’t win get too far away from her.
Especially when it was last month.
IIRC, Bennet was always either about to issue an internal poll for the primary, or was supposedly quoting from it. I don’t remember Romanoff giving results of even one.
Romanoff is going to beat Buck and there’s nothing you can do about it. Oh, wait. LOL!
People in the lead release polls saying they are in the lead all the time. It raises money, helps bring them support, etc. Do you think Dan Maes would not release a poll showing him in the lead? The NRCC has been releasing polls from GOP campaigns showing them in the lead for weeks.
Again…you are just dead wrong. Admit it and move on.
But you have a good point.
Just that if he was and he had a poll to prove it, does anyone doubt he would release it? The notion that frontrunners don’t release polls that say they are frontrunners is just silly.
I understood the implications of your example, but Maes isn’t exactly a shining representation of a wise politician. I mean to say, I wouldn’t structure my campaign based on the Amaesing Race.
If Gardner had a poll showing him with a big lead over Markey, they’d tell anyone who would listen. There would be no reason to keep it secret. You think Gardner has “special” poll numbers that Markey, the NRCC and the DCCC haven’t seen?
We’ve said it a million times on this site. Donors and supporters want to get behind winners. If you can show you are ahead, you do it.
If the independent polling has you in front, you don’t release your consistent internal polling. Third party polling is considered more credible.
If Gardner had a poll showing the same thing as the independent poll, then releasing those numbers WOULD VERIFY THEIR ACCURACY. If you don’t think that would be advantageous to Gardner, you’re smoking something.
Which tends to be more accurate, says that he actually does not have a lead over Markey? Yes…thank you for making my point.
His internal polling was ultimately the closest to being correct.
I linked a nice little article in another thread you spammed. K? So stop asking.
I’ve worked campaigns for 20 years, and there’s absolutely no comparison between the accuracy of internal polls and independent ones (especially independent ones with partisan leanings, as the Markey-Gardner one you mention does). Internal polls are almost never more than a few points off, in my experience, while independent ones are often just pure guesses. Now, do campaigns release portions of (or selected readings of) internal polls that show them in the best light? Yes, of course. And who knows what’s really going on in CD-4 … I take my cues from what sorts of ads are on the air, and I see loads of positive Markey ads, and nothing else. That tells me, a) Markey is far from desperate, and b) Gardner is confident. Take whatever conclusions you want from that.
by the RNC to tell us how he always seems to know what the Democrats are going to do and that is to throw in the towel and let the mighty Republicans roll to a trouncing victory.
Like Louis A’More, he is becoming more predictable by the day incessantly claiming that Democrats are doomed because they aren’t Republicans.
Every time he posts, you get the sense a paid professional is at work grinding out a narrative of gloom. If he isn’t getting paid for these predictable predictions of disaster for Democrats than maybe he missed his calling in life being a Republican shill.
Stroking your johnson in public over every poll that shows your candidate is a guaranteed winner is a little too icky for me to handle.
Maybe if you Republican shills actually discussed how we can move forward together as a nation and creatively solve our mutual problems I would be interested but the only thing you seem to write about is how far ahead your do nothing candidates are. Where’s the future in that kind of boring repetitious behavior?
But citing Dick Morris, in an article that misspells the Congresswoman’s name? Really?
No, seriously. Really?
And, I’ll offer you another bet. If the DCCC cuts Betsy off, I’ll buy you dinner at Kenny’s. If they don’t until after the election, then you buy for me.
As evidence, I will refer to the email I got at 10:10 am, today, from Chris Van Hollen at the DCCC.
He is not going to announce they are cutting off Markey. She will get lesser buys as the money gets spent elsewhere like for Salazar and Perlmutter as the triage commences.
And it will commence.
Sorry Rahm was busy and couldn’t make it Monday. Something more important than Betsy must have come up. That is how it starts.
There has never been a poll released that showed Gardner with a 20 point lead.
with a five percent margin of error. When it comes to shilling, our boy goes all out.
Are you saying there is no such poll or that it has not been released?
Both parties are now doing lots of polling and only releasing selective polls as they figure out where to place their bets.
Don’t click on it, H-man, or you may get sucked into another dimension.
Bennet leads Buck 43-40 in new poll
Oh, it is not but there is a 3 point poll that came out a week or two later. Thanks, but I saw that one, but I suspect you knew that.
which is notorious for having a liberal bias.
The H-man dimension is the land of milk and honey for all things Republican because they don’t have to solve any problems or work at pragmatic compromises. The H-man dimension consists entirely of polls that show every Republican candidate with an insurmountable lead and totally demoralized Democrats who can’t wait to throw in the towel. He never actually discusses how his mighty Republican candidates intend to solve any of our complex and interdependent problems. It is always polling sunshine and beautiful visions of success for his candidates. What a beautiful mind he must inhabit.
voters by such a huge amount. She only sampled 13% U, while the district is 33% U.
Probably because they will break 70-30 for Gardner.
RELEASE THE CROSS-TABS!
Professional polls like this poll a representative sample…which means for you who do not understand a Poll, that the pollster Pulls a sample with the correct number of Dems, Reps and U’s. And then at the end of the poll, they ask that sample what party they identify with. So ACTUALLY what this says is that more U’s are identifying with the Republican Party Than in years past.
And oh yeah…Markey is still tied. And give me a break…no candidate releases the full cross tabs.
You should tell that to Pols, since they put this in their analysis…. “This poll sampled 50% Republicans and 37% Democrats.” I guess Pols is wrong.
And thanks for the insight that more U’s are identifying with the GOP this year. I’m pretty sure that’s exactly what I said.
That’s a real knee-slapper.
Y’know Hiker, you’re about as clever as my 12-year-old son. You must be an absolute riot at parties.
Because it’s harder to attack a poll that oversamples from the opposing Party. It’s not complicated.
But let’s follow your logic, Hiking. You’re saying that 70% of Unaffiliated voters are probably breaking for Gardner, even though 70% of Republicans aren’t breaking for Gardner? You’re probably right. Gardner probably does better with Unaffiliateds than he does with Republican voters.
The poll you compared it to had as one of their criticisms that they undercounted R’s which I suspect was a way of accounting for the effect of third party candidates.
The district has R’s 39.5%; Dems 27.3%; UA 32.5%. The Republicans have picked up 2% in the district since Betsy was elected. Yet another reason she will lose.
As will Democrats. And Betsy’s mom. and…anything else your little shill heart desires!
Indies vote in very low percentages in off years.
How any idiot could look at a poll of an incumbent who is getting less than 40% in her own polling after labor day and think things are looking good is beyond me. Markey has been on the front page of numerous media outlets in the last week as being one of the most vulnerable people running and ColoradoPols thinks it is great news. These guys are nuts.
Is holding her own in a bad year, it IS good news.
I know it’s hard to accept, H-man, but put the Republican talking points down for today and use your actual brain.
BJ’s has hardly been used
Think Mel Brooks. Young Frankenstein. Abbby Normal.
This isn’t about any one individual candidate or race. Republicans have been touting the 10% generic Republican advantage in a national poll. This means that every Republican candidate, on average, should be at least 10 points ahead of their opponent. If the Republican candidate isn’t polling ahead even with a 10-point lead, then who would you say is in the better position? You can say that Markey should be in trouble because she isn’t higher than 38%. But according to national trends, Gardner should be at 48%.
Our point has been the same for months, and we repeated it again just a few days ago. All of this “national trend” crap is meaningless. Individual matchups matter more than general trends or historical numbers.
gauges intensity in general more than any particular match-up. Moreover, I think it’s much more of an anti-incumbent wave than an anti-Dem wave. Just so happens that there’s 90% overlap in faintly-to-very competive districts. This year is a political market correction after 3 cycles of Dems erasing Republicans from the map.
Much of this narrative is similar to ’08 with the roles reversed. Most don’t remember that McCain was tied with Obama on Labor Day that year. Markey doesn’t have anything to be excited about. But if she doesn’t have hope she doesn’t have a reason to get out of bed in the morning.
out of Musgrave’s race about a month prior to the election. DCCC is already showing signs that they are going elsewhere than the election in the 4th.
Direct from ABC
You mean letting the Bush tax cuts expire, rather than explosing the deficit?
I wonder sometimes if you all really give a crap about this stuff, or it’s just some kind of performance art …
he smears it all over the basement his parents pay for. makes him feel smart.
I think that she’ll win.