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February 06, 2020 06:26 AM UTC

Thursday Open Thread

  • 35 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

“You can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created.”

–Albert Einstein

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35 thoughts on “Thursday Open Thread”

  1. Daily Kos Elections group has their Q4 fund-raising numbers up. The 2 Colorado districts they list look like this ($in thousands):

    DistrictNameParty ………………4Q ….Self-…Spent..Cash

    CO-03James Iacino(D)………..$276….$19….$129…$166

    CO-03Diane Mitsch Bush(D)..$138…..$0……$65…$258

    CO-03Scott Tipton(R-inc)……$182……$0……$65…$530

     

    CO-06Jason Crow(D-inc)……$430……$0…$155…$1,398

    CO-06Steve House(R)………..$210….$87…..$50……$437

     

    1. @FiveThirtyEight Forecast
      best chance of winning (most delegates):

      Sanders:
      New Hampshire
      Nevada
      California
      Texas
      North Carolina
      Virginia
      Massachusetts
      Minnesota
      Colorado
      Tennessee
      Oklahoma
      Arkansas
      Utah
      Maine
      Vermont

      Biden:
      South Carolina
      Alabama

       

       

      Biden should antagonize the president. And the Senate.
      He has already stopped fundraising

        1. I was saving that for happy hour tonight

          Meanwhile- if the other candidates and Dems are concerned – famously moderate Senator M Bennet is in NH, fresh off 50 townhalls and ready to go

  3. DU's Seth Masket in this morning's New York Times predicts that Trump's strategy will be to play to his personal strengths — making the campaign into a pig-wrestling contest.  Naturally, he's the pig.

    His approach with Hillary Clinton then and with Joe Biden (or any Democrat) now is not to appear more ethical than they are but to besmirch their character with scandal. The idea is to make them look no better than he is, so that political journalists and voters come to see them as equally tainted by scandal, thus neutralizing ethical considerations.

    It is a remarkable innovation in presidential campaigns. And as the Democrats get deeper into the actual voting toward selecting their nominee and fret over Mr. Biden and Ukraine or Bernie Sanders and socialism, they might keep in mind that it can be applied (early and often) to any opponent.

    He directly accuses his opponents of scandals in which he himself is implicated. You could see this as a logical extension of the Republican strategy in 2004. Democrats had nominated a decorated military veteran, John Kerry, in part to bolster their party’s reputation for patriotism during wartime and to draw a favorable comparison with George W. Bush, who had avoided combat in the Vietnam War. Instead of changing the subject, however, Republicans attacked Mr. Kerry as someone who didn’t earn his medals and was potentially treasonous. But Mr. Bush, running for re-election that year, kept his hands clean of those attacks and let his allies do the dirty work for him.

    Mr. Trump, on the other hand, embraces such rhetoric.

    My argument here is not that Democrats should focus on picking a clean nominee who can’t be smeared with scandal. The leading Democrats are all pretty clean. Rather, I’m saying that Mr. Trump and his Republican allies will attempt to make the nominee look dirty, legitimately or not, no matter who it is. That’s his one go-to campaign tactic.

     

  6. Elizabeth Warren is the remaining moderate in the Democratic Party. Well, she will be once Buttigieg, Biden and Klobuchar exit.

    As we all know Warren was a Republican before she became a Democrat. 

    She also created the CFPB, which is the kind of reform capitalism needs, whether the "Capitains of Industry" know it or not.

    It is fine that she is running on Medicare For All, aka Single Payer, but it is obvious that the first legislation out of Congress will be a robust public option. 

    1. Michael Bennet is considered moderate.

      Fifty townhalls and reasonable media buy in New Hampshire.

      I know, I know
      But he got just as many Iowa delegates as Biden and Klobuchar. Combined.

  7. Thank You, Iowa

    You’ve definitively shown us why you shouldn’t be first on the political calendar, and so much more.

    “1. There is not yet a fresh burst of voter participation. At last count, turnout in Iowa was on track to hit 2016 levels — in the neighborhood of 170,000 caucusgoers — a far cry from the Obama-inspired groundswell of 2008, for which about 240,000 Iowans showed up. This should give particular pause to anyone betting on Bernie Sanders’s argument that he will win by creating a new movement, fueled by people who normally don’t vote.  But it should also be a warning for anyone counting on anti-Trump fervor to mobilize the masses. Clearly, the masses still need some convincing. Iowa deserves credit for revealing that sooner rather than later.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/opinion/iowa-caucuses-democrats.html

    Ok, it was a theory, or something . . . 

    1. On attendance & enthusiasm: 

      Numerous canvassing volunteers I read about said there was a large number of people they encountered who said "any Democrat will do" — and thus weren't concerned enough to attend the caucuses.  Similarly, there apparently were a number of people they contacted who took the position " my #1 concern is health care, and they are all in favor of at least maintaining the health insurance I rely on."

      I just don't sense nearly as much concern about "the future of the party" — for many, that is something to fight over when Trump is gone.

  8. Yep.  Bernie Sanders ain’t no Barack Obama in so many ways, including Sanders’ inability to turnout large numbers of voters.  I wonder if the NH media will finally nail his ass on how he intends to pay for his $50 Trillion in campaign promises.
    And “Vote D” is not going to cut it.  😭

    2. Yep.  It's hard out here for a pimp.

      If You Think It’s Bad for Mainstream Democrats Now, Just Wait

      It is always darkest, John McCain used to say, before it gets totally black. So it is for the American center-left right now. Bernie Sanders is currently favored to win the nomination, a prospect that would make Donald Trump a heavy favorite to win reelection, and open the possibility of a Corbyn-esque wipeout. While Sanders has not expanded beyond a minority of the party, he has consolidated support of the party’s left wing, and while its mainstream liberal wing is split between numerous contenders, it is hard to see how the situation is likely to improve soon. Indeed, it could get worse, much worse.

      One strategy would be to rally around him, on the grounds that no other candidate has or will have his name recognition and ties to black voters. The other strategy is to hope his campaign collapses as quickly as possible, so that another contender can emerge. (More about them below.) At the moment it is not clear which strategy makes sense. And in the absence of an effective party to coordinate, the most likely scenario is a combination of the two: Some Democrats back Biden, others defect, and others wait to see what happens. That would be the worst possible outcome: a long, slow, painful death that prevents another liberal from taking his place and allows Sanders to gain unstoppable momentum.

      1. Actually, no one wants to talk about the numbers for NON-universal healthcare?

        $60T?
        $600T?

        I took your numbers and added in the profit margin required by the private insurance industry:

        Medicare overhead is 5%
        Private Insurance overhead is 25%

        1. Math class is tough.
          Let's go shopping.   ~ Barbie Roberts

           

          Medicare is a little under that.
          Many private insurance are closer to 30. At least one is closer to 35 (though the accounting games since ACAmake it hard to measure.)

          And then there are the margins for all the imaging centers, hospitals, neuro monitoring providers, anesthesiologists, and etc, etc etc.

          1. Currently, "The ACA caps the company's profit margin at 15% in the large group market and 20% in the small group and individual markets."  Any source saying that some insurance companies are more equal than others and can go above those limits?

            Unless M4A is going to nationalize health care providing institutions in addition to health care insurance providers, some margins for services are going to continue.  Perhaps with some reduction — which will serve as some disincentive to the medical care providers. But on the other hand, Medicare/Medicaid will no longer be able to charge as low a price and have the private insurance payments subsidize them.  Health policy sources I've read say the current Medicare reimbursements will need to be increased 5-10% to reach a break even point.

            1. ACA says insurance company has to pay out 85% of premiums for health care services
              Not exactly the same as a cap on margin, but I get what you're saying

              Oddly, many large insurance companies generate revenue from other than premiums.
              I think United Healthcare owns a tractor manufacturer in Japan.

  9. Sanders is one freakin hard sell, particularly when everyone learns they have to give up their healthcare (which will piss off a fair number of voters) and how much their taxes will be raised (which will piss off nearly everyone).  
    Please, please don’t make this any harder than it is.  (Trump apparently has his highest approval numbers.  Put that in your pipe…)

    1. The Democratic party sucks.
      The D presidential nominating process sucks and has since way before 1968.
      But the party claims to want empowerment and equal opportunity for everyone.

      I didn’t choose Dukakis, I voted for him. And encouraged everyone else to.
      I didn’t choose Clinton – I voted for him.And encouraged everyone else to.
      I didn’t choose Gore or Kerry. I voted for them and encouraged everyone else to.

      I helped choose Obama. And voted for him every chance I got and encouraged everyone else to.
      I didn’t choose Clinton and I voted for her and encouraged everyone else to.

      This time through I wanted Harris. There were dozens of other good to great candidates – Warren, Bennet, Booker, Castro, Inslee, Bullock, Warren, and others.

      If we get Sanders – I will vote for him and encourage everyone else to.

      Until now – Ds never really had to worry about the presidential nominee. Worst case, the super delegates would fix everything.
      But now the super delegates get an invite to Milwaukee. They get to be on committees and they have phone numbers and emails.  They don’t get to vote ont he first ballot.  The Democratic 2020 Delegate Selection Process is democratic.

      Any D can vote or caucus. And people are freaking the fuck out.
      Chill, Ringo.

      Everyone votes D so we get rid of Trump.

      Console yourself that neither the Senate nor House will legislate or fund anything crazy. Allow Justice Bader Ginsburg and other other sane federal judge the peace of some retirement opportunity. 2022 midterms will be in full swing 12-14 months after inauguration.
       

       

    3. As previously noted: Nobody has to give up their healthcare.

      Obviously, changes to health insurance will come from legislation in Congress. The duty of the presidential candidate is to run an inspirational campaign in order to get elected. Let the most inspirational candidate win!

      The Dem candidates are ALL advocating for strengthening the government's role in health INSURANCE somewhere between a more robust Public Option to MFA Single Payer. None of them are advocating socialized health CARE, as exemplified by the VA. Remember that in the Clinton & Obama era strong health insurance reforms were compromised down, down and deeper down without getting any Republican support.

      I see the whole argument as a no-brainer: 

      All Congress needs to do is create a robust Public Option during the new President's first term. Private insurance will inevitably wither away because it costs 20-25% more than the Public Option, plus it belongs to YOU, not your company.

    2. Billionaire/Stacey, I don't think so. Although you are pointing out that the VP needs to complement the Presidential candidate in several ways. Billionaire gains the ticket only if the DNC puts their thumbs on the scale or as a result of magic delegates coming in on the second ballot in a hung convention.

      Taking the candidates in present order:

      Sanders/Abrams? Sanders/Harris?

      Biden/Abrams or Biden/Harris ticket would be interesting, and I could support that as Biden would be too old to run for a second term. Not likely though, as I think Biden is toast. He represents the politics of the 1980s, and can't even inspire White people in Iowa.

      Buttegeig/Anybody? I can't imagine who would complement Buttegeig. Biden? Kerry? Hillary Clinton? Obviously, it would have to be an "elder statesman", which probably means man because Clinton is radioactive (Which is unfortunate, because I think she is super-smart and experienced).

      Warren/Stacey? Warren/Harris? Which VP should be set up for the future. Warren could pull off a woman/woman ticket, so I think the complement of Abrams or Harris works for her.

      Klobucher/Whoknows. Probably has to be a man, and might-should be African American which leaves Booker, but I don't think that helps her campaign. In reality, she would need a strong representative of the liberal wing, which means Sanders (DOA) or Warren (maybe, but does that really help her?).

      1. Seriously — any speculation about VP is 4-5 months early.

        But for silliness — Buttigieg possibilities, depending on the focus groups and strategizing.

         * Buttigieg/Bloomberg, allowing the ticket to self fund and demonstrating administrative competence for the transition and early time in office. [And their first and last names have the same number of letters, so graphic design can be symmetrical.] Pete could go full throttle on the "inspirational" tones and have Bloomberg organize to handle the details.

         * Buttigieg/Klobuchar — giving Buttigieg a chance to say SOMEONE at the top of his campaign knows how DC works and can be the liaison to Congress and the national party.  And their last names have the same number of letters, do graphic design…..

        * Buttigieg/Duckworth — the veterans preference ticket. And their last names have the same number of letters ….

         

  11. Good luck everyone!

  12. President Extortionist Ttump has “learned his lesson” . . . 

    ‘Extortion’: N.Y. Assails Trump Administration Over Traveler Programs

    The move escalated the Trump administration’s battle with cities and states over immigration enforcement, and it took New York officials by surprise. There were no negotiations between Mr. Cuomo and federal authorities; state officials only learned of the ban on Wednesday night.

    “They never called, they never had a conversation,” Mr. Cuomo said.

    The decision by Homeland Security affects New Yorkers who use Trusted Traveler programs like Global Entry; their renewals will be cut off by the end of 2020. About 50,000 New Yorkers in the application process but who haven’t received final approval will also lose the opportunity to speed through security but will be reimbursed for their application fees, according to Heather Swift, a spokeswoman for Homeland Security

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/nyregion/green-light-law-global-entry.html

    . . . Yep, and how!

    1. Maybe it's fake news.
      Probably NY is a sanctuary for illegally immigrating underwear models.
      And once there was an underwear bomb.
      So, her emails and the president is just making us all safer.
      It was a perfect call – and then a Ukraine bound flight blows up. See?

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