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July 02, 2019 01:23 PM UTC

Who Will Be the Democratic Nominee for President in 2020?

  • 21 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols
Who fills this spot in 2020?

When last we asked this question, Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren were neck-and-neck, with Sen. Kamala Harris closing quickly. When last we asked, of course, the first Democratic debates had not yet taken place.

Now that we have the first debates in the books, polling data is starting to shift a bit. As the Washington Post reports:

After CNN on Monday released the first poll since last week’s Democratic debate, all the focus was on Joe Biden dropping and Kamala D. Harris and Elizabeth Warren rising.

But what about Bernie Sanders? Two more new polls Tuesday seem to fill out the picture of a 2016 runner-up who didn’t exactly impress last week and is losing ground early.

The CNN poll had Sanders dropping four points into fourth place, at 14 percent, though he was still in a statistical tie with Harris (17 percent) and Warren (15 percent).

A new Quinnipiac University poll shows a similar picture, with Sanders dropping from 19 percent to 13 percent and again falling into fourth place. And a new Iowa poll also has him in fourth place — but that’s not even the worst of it.

So, what say YOU, Polsters? Are you feeling confident about Warren and Harris? Is Bernie in as much trouble as it looks? What about former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper?

For the second consecutive poll, we forgot to include New York Mayor Bill de Blasio — which is probably symbolic in and of itself. If you’re that person who is supporting de Blasio, cast your vote below for “Someone Else.”

As always, we want to know what you think will happen here — not what you want to happen or who you personally might support. If you had to place a bet on the outcome TODAY, who do you predict will be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?

And since there are still a bagillion candidates and we don’t want to take up the entire screen with this one poll, you’ll have to cast your vote after the jump…

 

Who Will Be the Democratic Nominee for President in 2020?
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21 thoughts on “Who Will Be the Democratic Nominee for President in 2020?”

    1. You and deathpigeon – what is it you like about Gravel? He has had some honorable days, like exposing the Pentagon Papers to the world, but he really seems like he's losing his cookies now.

      I can't tell if he's an ultra war hawk or a peacenik – and it seems to depend on the day. dp covers the "Gravel Gang" tweeting for Gravel…they also seem like typical teens, against everything and being weird for its own sake. More like performance art than a political campaign.

      1. I was joking. Frankly, until I heard he was running this year, I did not know he was still alive.

        OTOH, he makes Biden and Bernie look young.

  5. My WAG — Warren, with substantial consideration of Harris.  Off the debate and the spin, I started seeing Harris as sort of a mirror image of Christie in 2016.  He had a boomlet.  He looked pretty tough. But he

    • wasn't able to shake off some of the pragmatic associations with people of the other party,
    • could not generate enthusiasm for some of his own policy moves among key blocks of voters, and
    • he wasn't especially adroit at dealing with objections — he was SURE he was right.

    Obviously, I would not be surprised to be wrong.

    1. I don't agree that Warren's boom is comparable to Christie.

      PAAA-Fs (Politically Active African American Females) make up a large portion of Biden's support, probably due to long-term political engagement and trust of the Democratic establishment. Warren is the best placed to pick them up, especially in important early states like California and North Carolina.

  6. The one person I could have supported with enthusiasm is one of the few dems not running: Eric Garcetti.  Maybe he can get LA under control and run in 2024, if we're still holding elections after trump's second term. 

  7. WOTD from Rachel Bitecofer HT Daily Kos: "Electoral College D-278 R-197"

    Republicans can survive an under-maximized Democratic turnout surge, like the one we saw in 2018, but not one that it is combined with the loss of Independent voters powered by Trump backlash, and not one without a corresponding Republican turnout surge which can only be accomplished via things likely to further isolate Independent voters and agitate Democrats.

    Does the Democrat’s nominee matter? Sure, to an extent. If the ticket has a woman, a person of color or a Latino, or a female who is also a person of color, Democratic Party turnout will surge more in really important places. If the nominee is Biden he’d be well-advised to consider Democratic voter turnout his number one consideration when drawing his running mate

    1. This is the best read of the season, offering lots of insights for 2020. Bitecofer's estimates for 2018 from a year prior, were very accurate. One thing that surprised her about 2018 was that Republican turnout also surged.

      She says that, aside from external factors like a war in Iran or a third Party candidate, Trumps ONLY possible path to winning is to break again the Democratic wall in the Midwest.

  8. I think it'll be Harris.  I wish she'd take a consistent stand on issues like health care, student debt, etc.  She sounds like a typical politician who can't say no to anyone; e.g., "I'll look into that" when asked if felons should be allowed to vote even while still incarcerated.   I have no idea where she stands on health care — she says one thing on stage, then backtracks off stage.   Sigh….

    1. Harris doesn't have the deep policy folders that Warren does. How about a Harris-Warren ticket?

      I can get on-board with the idea that it will take a good woman or two to clean up the nasty mess left by the Trump family.

      The thing with Bernie & Biden is that they are strong in one or two demographics of the Party, but weak with others. Harris's strength cuts across most demographics.

      All evidence points to a turn-out driven election. Biden's appeal comes from cautious moderation, which isn't going to drive turnout.

       

    2. I have that same issue with Harris. She definitely raised her hand, along with Bernie, when asked if long-term, she wants to abolish private health insurance I favor of a public option.

      Then, interviewed later, by Joy Reid I think, Harris completely backtracked and said that wasn’t what she meant at all.

      So, like you, I’m not sure where Harris really stands. Warren, though is pretty clear, as is Bernie. I’d go with a Warren – Harris ticket, or Warren – Castro, or just about any of them. I hate to say it, because I have such respect for the man, but I really do think Bernie’s too old.

      1. Bernie IS too old.  He would be 87 if he served the customary two terms.  Biden is too old, he'd be 86.

        Warren would be 78 after two terms.  That's reasonable.

         

         

        1. Here is how it's going to go ………..

          Biden will continue to deflate and by October, he will withdraw. At least half of his support will go to Harris. (That has already happened in South Carolina.) The rest will go to a bland white male candidate. Unfortunately Mayor Pete may be a little too exotic so my guess is Inslee or Bennet, assuming Bennet remains in the race. (Stay the course, Senator. Some day Warren or Harris may reward you with the vice presidency.)

          Bernie will also lose steam but will not drop out. He will continue on, railing against the system which is rigged against him. Nearly all of his supporters will gravitate to Warren because she is simply more electable than Bernie. (That is already happening.) A sliver of Bros will stay with Bernie to the bitter end, and ultimately end up supporting Trump's re-election.

          So there you have it……the two finalists will be Harris and Warren.

  11. Buttigieg is my favorite though I know it’s a long shot (though he appears to be the top fundraiser this quarter). If he doesn’t make it I hope the nominee goes to his school to be trained on how to frame the message – ie freedom, security are Democratic values.; also “Medicare for all who want it” is the smartest message and approach. 

    Warren would cost us a Senate seat we cannot afford to lose – and I question her appeal in places like AZ and NC – so I am hoping Kamala gets her act together . She’s had a sloppy rollout so far. 

    While a Pete- Stacy Abrams ticket could have strong outsider appeal , a Harris-Pete ticket has great potential 

     

  12. Likely? Harris/Bennet (because establishment Dem's still think there's a middle to court).

    Hopefully? Warren/Castro (because there's a base to fire up).

    Can't imagine the two women forming a single ticket.

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