Some Caucus Analysis — With Maps

Well, the results of last night’s caucuses haven’t been completely tabulated, but that shouldn’t stop me from making inferences, should it?  Don’t answer that.

Okay, on the Democratic side, here’s what the county map looks like.  I have calculated Romanoff’s share of the Romanoff + Bennet vote, ignoring the uncommitted for now.  Darker blue counties are those in which Romanoff did better.  The data come from here.

Now, the completely white counties are ones in which we don’t yet have numbers, so ignore those for now.  But what we do see is that Romanoff did well in the Denver metro area and even better in some of the central and southern counties.  Bennet’s areas of strength appear to be the northern plains areas and the western slope counties near Grand Junction.  Regression analysis shows that Bennet did better in counties with a higher percentage of college-educated residents, while Romanoff did better in wealthier counties.

Over on the Republican side, I calculated Jane Norton’s share of the Norton + Buck vote, ignoring the uncommitted and supporters of other candidates.  Darker red counties are those in which Norton did better.  The data come from here.

This map shows a strong regional pattern, with Norton doing much better than Buck in the western counties and Buck dominating the eastern plains.  This may partially represent the candidates’ upbringings: Norton is from Grand Junction originally, and Buck is the Weld County D.A. and has a long family history in Greeley.  So she’s the western slope candidate and he’s the eastern plains one (whereas we see less of a geographic pattern on the Democratic side with both candidates coming from Denver).  Regression analysis shows that Buck did significantly better in counties with a higher percentage of Evangelical Christians, although no other major demographic distinction between the candidates’ supporters turns up.

(Cross-posted at Enik Rising.)

4 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. MADCO says:

    Ok- so how much snow are going to get Friday?

  2. Danny the Red (hair) says:

    I don’t know what i need (it is not cowbell), but I like the direction you are headed

    • MADCO says:

      Cause I got the feeling , you do need more cowbell.

      • MADCO says:

        I got the same feeling.

        I thought there must be a way to use the data of 22.000 D’s who were polled last night and project into useful data beyond the caucus.

        I mean sure, any minute now we’ll have delegate totals (the only thing that matters- and it doesn’t matter much) from which we can project assembly results. (sort of)  

        But I meant something more… meaningful.

        Example- Denver, JeffCo, and ArapCo accounted for just under 60% of the caucus attendees. Is that a fair approximation for likely D primary voters?    It seems low, so are the ones who will also vote in the primary more likely to vote for one or the other? Will the presence of other things on the primary ballot affect that?

        And so on.

        and more cowbell

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