U.S. Senate
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(D) J. Hickenlooper*
(R) Somebody
80%
20%
Governor
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(D) Michael Bennet
(D) Phil Weiser
60%↑
50%↓
Att. General
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(D) M. Dougherty
(D) Jena Griswold
60%↑
40%↑
Sec. of State
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(D) A. Gonzalez
(D) J. Danielson
(R) Sheri Davis
50%
40%
30%
State Treasurer
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(D) Brianna Titone
(D) Jeff Bridges
(R) Kevin Grantham
40%
40%
30%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(R) Jeff Hurd*
(D) Somebody
80%
40%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert*
(D) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank*
(D) Somebody
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(R) Gabe Evans*
(D) Manny Rutinel
(D) Yadira Caraveo
45%↓
40%↑
30%
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
May 15, 2006 08:00 AM UTC
38 Comments
blah blah, same thing happens every cycle for Tom, and same thing always happens….he wins big.
Has anyone seen this data in the form of a press release or is it just coming from Bill? It is great if it is true but I’d love to see a link to a press release…
This post misconstrues what Winter’s pollsters released. This is from the release that’s been floating around out on the Internet this morning. The current vote is Tancredo beating Winter by 12 points. The numbers everyone is in a tizzy about is after the pollsters engage in a “push” poll of solely Winter’s message.
If Winter has enough money to blanket the District with his message, he can win. The problem begins if Tancredo defines him first. Tancredo currently has $250,000 more in the bank so if the poll is true, you’d have to assume that he’ll do just that. Tom will get on the TV and talk about immigration. I don’t like Tom but he’s on the right side of the debate for a majority of Sixth voters.
TT has an overwheliming advantage on name recognition over Winter. The only way Winter can bring this up is to raise a ton of money and get on TV early. I haven’t seen anything that prooves to me that he can raise this money with his Be The Change following.
I would love to see the bios they used for Tancredo and Winter to see that kind of shift in the numbers. I can’t believe this site posted Bill Winter’s take on his own push poll written on another blog as fact. The dead govs are starting to show thier true blue colors on a lot of these Congressional races. What’s next, is Angie going to be outpolling Marilyn by 9% in the 4th?
Exactly Hippooponymous. Numbers can say almost anything. I think that’s what happened here. The numbers are a good sign for Winter, the race isn’t hopeless. But exactly like Josh said, the way Winter gets the poll to mean anything is to raise a HUGE amount of money. Bloggers are great but they won’t raise him the type of money that he needs.
I love when they throw around polling numbers but fail to mention what organization did the polling or what questions were asked. They only give the numbers that help infer their spin. The reality is that Winters doesn’t have a snowball’s chance and as the general closes in, voters will know that Tancredo is not your typical “go along, get along” Republican who just plays the game. In fact, Tancredo is a principled conservative who has sometimes had to oppose the President. He has opposed government expansion and has framed the debate regarding illegal immigration in spite of being called a kook and an extremist by his political enemies. Isn’t it funny, nowthat he has brought the debate to national attention, many in his own party who once called him crazy are now vying for his support and attention. No, the 6th CD is well served by Tom Tancredo. If I lived in it, I would be very proud to name Tancredo as my Representative!!!! God Bless you TOM!!!!!
MesaGOP,
The polling bios are printed over at Soapblox, if you would love to see them, go take a look. They are pretty well written.
Harajuku Girl,
This time they do list the questions and say who did the polling. Go take a look at the poll. All that information has been released and your criticism is off base on this one.
“The dead govs are starting to show thier true blue colors on a lot of these Congressional races. What’s next, is Angie going to be outpolling Marilyn by 9% in the 4th?”
With GW’s approval rating at 33%, the US Congress approval rating at 23%, & Rove about to be indicted on perjury & obstruction of justice, are you seriously suprised that Bill Winter is polling well? You must be one of those 33%, 23%, think Rove is innocent, the country is moving in the right direction kind of folks…. ahhhh ignorance is bliss.
“Winter says Washington has changed Tom Tancredo, who is out of touch, and has ignored the district to run for President”
That line is what makes this poll questionable. Tancredo’s bio didn’t say anything bad about Winter and negative campaigning works.
Soap Box is not well written. It has a liberal spin if I have ever seen one. If Ramussen gave the poll then it would have some clout.
I see the shipment of Kool-Aid has arrived.
:^)
Bill, we over at SoapBlox quite enjoy our liberal spin, and wear it proudly.
Hey Bill, in response to, “Soap Box is not well written.” What, compared to this site?
and, “It has a liberal spin if I have ever seen one.” No Shit Sherlock! Rasmussen has clout? Yeah, as the only polling company less slanted than Fox News itself.
OK, as I posted on Jay’s poll piece – If both Winter & Fawcett’s pollsters are coming to the same result – I would bet there is a change coming down the path for the Republicans!!!
How much unethical, unamerican and quite frankly stupid antics can the Republicans get away with, before people say no more. I would say the 2006 elections will be a great wake up call!
Winter beat TT???? Some people’s delusions are incredible!!!! Tom will be re-elected comfortably!!! Cash simply won’t help Winter in that district!
I read both ColoradoPols and Soapbox pretty religiously. I’m surprised, however, at the amount of dislike it appears that Soapbox bloggers have for Colorado Pols. For example, you refer to the blog as Colorado Trols. Why is there such animosity? Are you guys jelous or do you have a ligitimate gripe?
As Homer Simpson once said, “Statistics can say anything! 63% of all people know that!”
Careful, with how fast you Tancredo lovers are spinning, you might fall over.
It’s not a done deal, but Tancredo’s vulnerable. There’s a lot of if’s involved, but it’s a “lean Republican” race at this point rather than a slam dunk. This is going to be a very interesting election year in CO.
Agreed, Random Dude. There are very few races I would take for granted this year.
The numbers are encouraging, and I’m hopeful people are paying attention to them, particularly the national Democratic leadership, which tends to write off races. They’d be wise to start paying attention and start playing in all 50 states. This targeting bullshit doesn’t work (see 2004 election results for proof.)
Just as 1994 was not a good year to be a Dem (I think it was ’94), this isn’t looking like a good year to be a Republican.
I don’t believe the numbers.
Who cares!!! What do you think would happen if TT put a poll out with Winter’s negatives? That he was a president of an ultra left wing “grassroots” group, who never accomplishes anything, and doesn’t represent the values of the people in the 6th. Who has never held office. TT will have way more money to attack Winter and bring up his own positives, that there is no way Winter will be able to respond. Winter wins for the day but in November TT will remain in Washington.
Why the hate,
Not hate. Just different philosophies.
At Soapblox, it is a community of mostly common vision with people that maintain more persistent identities and good tools for lengthy contributions by many members.
At Pols there is a wider spectrum of opinions, but they are done in brief posts by mostly anonymous and partisan posters trying to spin the story d’jour.
I am not saying either is better or worse, just they serve different audiences and purposes.
The ColoradoPols format is prone to trolls and shouting matches.
The SoapBlox format mostly ignores the Holzman vs. Tancredo debate. I suppose it depends on what you prefer.
I mean Holtzman vs. Beauprez, of course.
(Although I do like the rumor that might start.)
Vulnerable is about the nicest thing you could say about Tancredo. Try this lie out, “The Veterans Administration employs more lawyers than any federal government agency”- Tom Tancredo
Solution, even if that were true, wouldn’t you instead want to say, we need to have an intergovernment shift in resources? His solution, throw the baby out with the bath water. Tom “Nuke Mecca” Tancredo is an embarassment to the decent people of Colorado.
It’s not for nothing that Tancredo described himself as one of the “crazies” when he was in the Colorado House.
Winter can win this race, and he doesn’t need THAT much money to do it. (TV is money poorly spent, IMHO. Too many channels. Audience too fractured.)
It’s going to be a Democratic year. Lots of Republicans will stay home. Good time to pull an upset.
You keep thinking that. LOL
Maybe all you Dems are right. Maybe you should ignore CD 7 and give all of your money to Winter.
:^)
That’s good… because money’s one thing that Winter DOESN’T have.
Money. And support.
Well, if Tancredo is as “vunerable” as you guys on the left want to believe, then, when he wins by a very comfortable margin (which he will), you won’t have much to chanllenge him with in ’08.
You guys miss the point. The fact that CD6 is even competitive is a sign of how far the GOP has fallen.
That bit of ‘logic’ is like a house built on sand…