CO-04 (Special Election)
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(R) Greg Lopez
(R) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Joe Biden*
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%↓
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
90%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
90%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
(R) Ron Hanks
40%
30%
20%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(R) Deborah Flora
(R) J. Sonnenberg
30%↑
15%↑
10%↓
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Dave Williams
(R) Jeff Crank
50%↓
50%↑
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
90%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) Brittany Pettersen
85%↑
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
(R) Janak Joshi
60%↑
35%↓
30%↑
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
October 31, 2018 03:27 PM UTC
5 Comments
The 2016 election was the first time that Democrats were close to Republicans in early mail-in ballot returns, so comparing '16 to '18 won't give you an accurate read.
Very possibly I am seeing a trend that is not there.
But if I am right I think that Democratic Party efforts to turn out the base early and then go after reluctant voters might be working. They might have reversed the common wisdom about registered Republicans being the typical early voters. Which would be a very interesting thing.
Right or wrong I shall do another diary on the subject after election day figuring out the turn out of the various affiliations.
Hope you will take advantage of the resource provided by Magellan Strategies: Magellan Strategies Colorado Ballot Return Report
So far, it looks to me like the Republicans have self-inflicted wounds, making Democratic turn out look pretty good by comparison. Unaffiliated is up — which I'm considering to be a recognition of "voter responsibility" and the resulting vote surge.
Here's Magellan's breakdown, comparing 2014 votes on the equivalent day before the election with 2018's November 1 totals.
R 2014 431,711 R 2018 378,811
D 2014 336,908 D 2018 376,630
U 2014 269,404 U 2018 332,498
and the analysis: “Over 50,000 fewer Republicans have returned their ballot than at this same point in 2014. This low turnout holds in ten of the top twelve counties in Colorado, the only exceptions being in Northern Colorado in Larimer and Weld Counties.”
Great information! This really looks like Republicans being depressed about voting here in Colorado plus whatever level of party switching that has happened in the last four years and the population increase (which is huge). NPR reported there were about 100,000 more in Colorado than either of the major parties in 2016 as part of an article about the trend nationally.
Active registered voters:
R 2014 935,675 R 2018 995,090
D 2014 896,539 D 2018 1,003,424
U 2014 989,473 U 2018 1,163,751