CO-04 (Special Election)
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(R) Greg Lopez
(R) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
President (To Win Colorado)
See Full Big Line
(D) Joe Biden*
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%↓
CO-01 (Denver)
See Full Big Line
(D) Diana DeGette*
90%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
90%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
(R) Ron Hanks
40%
30%
20%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
See Full Big Line
(R) Lauren Boebert
(R) Deborah Flora
(R) J. Sonnenberg
30%↑
15%↑
10%↓
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
See Full Big Line
(R) Dave Williams
(R) Jeff Crank
50%↓
50%↑
CO-06 (Aurora)
See Full Big Line
(D) Jason Crow*
90%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
See Full Big Line
(D) Brittany Pettersen
85%↑
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
See Full Big Line
(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
(R) Janak Joshi
60%↑
35%↓
30%↑
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
See Full Big Line
DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
January 07, 2010 06:26 PM UTC
224 Comments
and for me, 250 of them are new! I have some catching up to do.
Is Ken Salazar ever going to stick to his post? Or is he going to take a more lucrative job at a lobbying firm two years into his Governors office as well?
that Ken Salazar is likely to be Gov. Poor Scooter, to have his dreams so dashed.
If anyone can make Dems look good, its Republicans.
Read more: http://www.denverpost.com/loca…
Salazar will need 72+ hours to decide if he takes the risk, much of that will have to on the ground in Colorado.
Why would Salazar have to spend the next three days in Colorado to decide if he is running for Governor? You know, Libertad, they have the Internet and phones and everything in D.C.
punt to Hickenlooper
fantasy!
Where’s that bench, where’s the discipline, ya gotta love the passion.
It always amazes me how you can write such absolute proclamations while having absolutely no evidence to support your “factual” statements. My guess tad is that you reach your conclusions by interpreting the gas clouds emanating from Rush Limbaughs butt. You are in a bigger haze then a medical marijuana patient. No wonder your predictions of a McCain landslide missed the mark. We do enjoy your delusions though. It is definitely entertainment to see how hard you are wishing for a new pony.
Only yesterday, Libertad insisted Salazar would take three days polling before he made up his mind. Wow, time flies when you having right-wing fantasies, doesn’t it?
He’s entertaining, at least!
And Arvadonian–that sounds about right!
At least you can laugh at yourself once in a while. That goes a long way to redeeming some of your fulminatory moments. 😉
If Rasmussen says the democrat is down by 5 they are likely up by 8…
Just how did Ritter reach this family crisis now that his youngest at the age to be bar hoping with a fake id and shopping colleges?
A democrat today suggested there was a federal investigation – 2nd time I’ve heard this – when asked what the investigation was for they could only speculate about the Velafuarte angle.
With personal attacks like this from inside Democrats who needs enemies
over and over and over and over and over, you disingenuous little fuck.
Or making them up. Probably the latter.
The chaos here was the chaos there. MotR called it a “microcosm” in another thread, yup.
Incredibly valuable, though.
The face that graced the front page of the Post, Jeannie Ritter’s, was not the face of the wife of a pol whose “family considerations” are about to explode into a bimbo eruption or any other personal or political scandal.
All the best to the Ritter family and may they always look as happy and serene as they did at that press conference. Pretty clear Ritter made the right decision for his family. Nice to know we aren’t always right to be cynical.
And we owe them a giant thank you for letting us have him for 4 years. (I’ve talked to my sister once/year since she became a cabinet officer – and governor has to be 10 times worse).
Cross your fingers!!!
that and get an interview scheduled with Hickenlooper:
http://twitter.com/TheFix/stat…
…suck up where it matters.
thanks – dave
ps – I still want to interview Salazar too.
and maybe Jake Sully while your at it. One can never have enough interviews.
15 minutes ago:
they’ve got their sources… Hickenlooper anyone?
It doesn’t seem to work for me.
Thanks.
…then that would be about right.
Find a real non-partisan poll, and then repost.
Hickenlooper is within the margin of error, without even being a candidate, shows how much trouble Scooty is in.
“Republicans have lost all credibility over the past 10 years,” -Josh Penry,
http://www.politico.com/news/s…
Neither Hick nor Salazar does much better than Ritter against McInnis.
http://www.rasmussenreports.co…
but they’re not terribly accurate. (Of course, it could be that Rasmussen is the ONLY accurate pollster, and that all other pollsters are in a conspiracy to prop up our failing blackosocialist President, if you’re in the HOV lane to Crazytown.)
Rasmussen thinks the Massachusetts Senate race will be within single digits. We’ll find out in a month whether that’s accurate. I tend to think not so much. I don’t even think the craziest whackjob Republicans really believe Rasmussen’s numbers there.
http://www.politico.com/news/s…
attack the messenger.
Anyone who thinks that Salazar or Hickenlooper are the silver bullets is mistaken. Both are trailing McInnis. Rasmussen picked Obama to win by the exact margin, they were the first poll to show that Libby Dole was behind in North Carolina and the first to pick Webb to win in Virginia in 2006.
since the election of Obama. Rasmussen had the same numbers as everyone else until after the election, and since then they’ve been wild outliers.
If you think it’s worth anything that they picked Obama’s exact margin, you haven’t got the slightest idea how statistics work. I’ll explain it to you if you like.
First, they were off by a percent in their final poll. Second, they did considerably less well on a state-by-state basis. I can’t verify the Dole or Webb results, so I’ll ignore those claims for now. Statistics (and lots of polling) can generate any number of claims of accuracy (or inaccuracy).
However, Rasmussen has been a continual outlier all through the past year. He’s adjusted his weighting in a way that highly favors Republicans (Rasmussen always has, but it’s worse this year since he adjusted his weighting formula).
I’ll wait for more poll results, thanks.
The party in power always polls poorly in the first year or two of a new President.
The only numbers that matter at this point in any race are “very favorable” and “very unfavorable,” because most voters aren’t paying any attention whatsoever. The “very favorable” and “very unfavorable” numbers are a decent barometer of what the voters who ARE paying attention are thinking.
Where’s the siren icon at the top of the page? 🙂
this gives Hick someplace to go (and he’s proven that he can be a good executive), allows Salazar to continue his good work at DoI, and hey, maybe even Romanoff could run for Denver mayor and get something out of this!
All in all, this could be a very satisfactory solution.
But I don’t think Romanoff would suspend his campaign to run for Mayor. Maybe if it was Mayor of the Senate.
Romanoff for Lt. Gov, no matter who runs for Gov.
But Romanoff makes less sense for Hickenlooper because he doesn’t bring anything different to the ticket. Salazar is not a Denver guy, so he could pick a Denver person for LG. But Hick probably needs to go out of the city for his choice in order to balance the ticket.
I mean, really? Did anyone vote for Gov. Ritter because Ms. O’Brien was his running mate?
Some of which were still nervous about Ritter’s “personal” pro life position. Plus, she’s an energetic and articulate campaigner. I’ve been thinking this time how a West Slope gal like Kathleen Curry might help Hickenlooper if she hadn’t just shot herself in the foot.
That’s still allowed? I mean, wouldn’t that be a great, nice and tidy way to close everything off?
sigh…
plus, I bet Romanoff could win the mayoral race, it would be tough, but much more likely than knocking off a sitting senator that is putting away money and support like crazy.
love it!
If anyone in this analogy is Nixon, it’s Scott McInnis.
Ritter is an easy LBJ.
That would make Hickenlooper into McGovern though, so I think those first two might be where the analogy ends.
in 2008.
But what do I know, I just think the idea of Romanoff pulling a Tricky Dick is hilarious.
Everybody and their mother is going to run for Mayor, regardless of what he did.
Hickenlooper needs someone from the Western Slope to run on the ticket. Who?
because then we could have Buescher as Lt. Gov, move Romanoff to SoS, and then, again, it’s the Repubs left without a seat!
Actually though, I don’t know if Hick would need a west sloper, and I have no idea if this is plausible, but what about someone like Sal Pace on the ticket to repair Hick’s ties to labor? I agree with the consensus that labor will come out to vote for Hick regardless, but they might be a lot more enthusiastic in doing so if they had one of their own on the ticket as well.
Again, probably idealistic musings… but fun!
I would expect a latino name on the ticket.
like, how many extra people are going to vote, volunteer, or donate because there is a latino in the second slot? Especially considering that Ken already said no to the top spot. I dunno. Romanoff, labor, latino, west slope, all constituencies have their voters and advantages, just a matter as to which will give you the most for a Lt. Gov nod.
they’re gonna need help to get the same serious support labor gave to Ritter. Sal Pace would be excellent.
Hispanic and/or woman.
with Rasmussen? I’d like a look or breakdown of the cross-tabs for this latest poll, but you need some fancy-schmacy account service. If anyone has access and would be willing to post something I would be much obliged.
The only thing they do well is poll for the winner going into elections.
I’m crushed. I think Hick is a good a candidate but the excitement Salazar would have generated in the Hispanic community would have been priceless in a midterm.
Romanoff for mayor sounds peachy.
I think they have their problems, but as Nate Silver notes, differences in models does not necessarily reflect bias or mean that they are wrong, even if that makes them divergent from other polling bodies.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com…
And I agree, Salazar would’ve done well, but I do believe that Hick can do just as well if not better, and this allows Ken to keep doing his thing at DoI.
As to Romanoff, see my new sig line.
Good News: Daily Kos’ polling firm Research 2000 will be polling Colorado next week. They are a very reliable polling firm.
I’ve also been concerned that the polling void has been filled by the inaccurate and GOP-leaning Rasmussen which is then reported without qualification by the traditional media.
First: Y’all forget that McInnis has been campaigning. None of the potential Democratic nominees have campaigned for this office. Big surprise that the guy spending money and meeting voters statewide is polling above the two to three possibilities who’ve been busy in other jobs.
Second: I still hold out hope that Perlmutter will jump in here. We need someone with his expertise on finance issues. Hick is wonderful and a second choice that I’m perfectly happy with, but he doesn’t make me want to hurry up and start volunteering yesterday like the idea of Perlmutter for Governor does.
Why does the title say Hickenlooper WILL run? There’s not a corresponding update with any text to that effect…
He would wait for Salazar’s decision. With Ken out, I guess Pols just inferred that Hick was in. But you’re right, no official announcement from Hizzoner yet.
that for all the opportunity, we don’t go through an entire list of A-list Democrats to come up with no candidate.
Even if Hick bowed out and my top pick didn’t jump in, Romanoff is still waiting in the wings and would probably love to exit his primary where he’s raising no money and getting no attention.
I’m wrong. I like the Mayor.
“Bipartisan Unitier” = Republican Coddler
A bit boring on the 453rd rendition, but I guess you have to go with what you’ve got.
Stargate and Liberturd? Maybe they could get rid of each other for us.
who would we mock endlessly? I mean, you gotta admit, a village without an idiot is a pretty boring village.
I guess it takes a village to raise an idiot after all;-)
Of course you’re right. What was I thinking?
It’s not enough to support Dems who who think they know who to spew buzz words to win elections but can’t enact policies. The point is change, not the status quo comforting appearance of change. Cat and voyager know I’m right, and their attempt to marginalize me flows out of a a wannabe insider lemming mentality. They’re absolutely terrified of a grassroots rebellion in the Democratic party. The designated followers aren’t following this time, and that scares the shit out of them.
Better to lose with a philosophically pure candidate than win with someone who is not exactly what you want.
“Rise and Fall of the Third Reich” he noted that at the street tough level, Communists and Nazis often recruited from each other. Their supposed ideological differences meant less than their shared aversion to moderates and their lust for radical, preferably violent, change. Politics isn’t really a left-right spectrum so much as a circle where if you go far enough away from the middle, no matter in which direction, you fight the far right converges with the far left.
…and I’m owed an apology. It’s interesting how low the corporatist wing of the Democratic party is willing to sink to marginalize the progressive base. It’s almost as if they would rather lose and blame progressives than actually have progressive policies enacted.
I’m sure that apology will be coming soon. Then, reread the post. You weren’t “compared” to anyone, I merely noted Shirer’s comments about the convergence of far left and far right. So, if the shoe fits, wear it!
I had a family member die in Buchenwald. You don’t know me. You’ve not bothered to understand my argument. Shame on you.
Now, stop lying about mine.
I’ve been to Yad Vashem and think I know what I’m talking about on this subject. In your stupid rush to claim victimhood, you equated your position on the far left with being called a “Nazi.” Look up Ernst Thaelman on Google and then you can apologize to me for being a complete idiot.
Thoughtful, intellectual comments are not typically welcome to purists such as Stagarite when they are in the middle of a major hissy fit. There was zero chance she was going to understand your larger point–much easier to accuse you of calling her a Nazi and play the “somebody I know died” sympathy card.
But “maroon”? Come on, “maroon” is totally harmless.
to a nazi. The quote from from Wm Shirer’s history of the third reich, which noted the convergence of far left and far right. He’s been whining and bawling and chewing the carpet ever since, because his reading comprehension is right down there with his logic and manners. To quote the great Philosopher Bugs Bunny…What a maroon!
even bringing up Nazis in such a context is unnecessary. Stagarite is not a Communist, and teabaggers are not Nazis. I appreciate the point you’re making, but the use of that analogy just makes people angry and defensive without really informing anyone.
Besides, the convergence of the far left and far right doesn’t really need any historical analogy or hypotheticals; Jane Hamsher’s nutjob alliance with Grover Norquist is more than enough evidence of the dangers of the “my way or nothing” approach.
Aside from my feelings about the caterwauling and the actual disappointment of not hearing a single name he could support.
You have captured my feelings on the issues related to said individual re Shirer although I am favorable disposed to the position expressed by B. Bunny.
LMAO! I’m dying here!
It was a self-discrediting insult. However, as your grandmother might have said, it’s the thought that counts. What’s interesting is the amount of vitriol these corporate Dems are directing at a member of their own party. Tomorrow, or on another thread, they’ll be giving self-important lectures on “party unity” and about how we all need to pull together to win.
“vitriol”
Your hyperbole reveals your partisan priorities.
Otherwise most posters’ registered affiliation is not public. Some of us have acknowledged or outed our registered affiliation and voting preference. But you don’t know the party affiliation of the posters here. Or at least I don’t.
As for “maroon” a quick search of the site shows that it has been used as a Bugs bunny reference for years. Occasionally with embedded Youtube of the Bugster.
We need a diary about partisan loyalty and partisan priorities.
I can’t write it – I’ve tried. But I cannot capture the wisdom and joy of party loyalty in the face of less than 50% probability of victory.
If you can write it- please do.
Until then, let’s agree that we don’t really know motivates other voters. Not always. I don’t anyway. example- Here in CD 6 we nominate D’s with no apparent regard for whether they can win. They get 40 – 44% of the total vote (or less) and that corresponds pretty closely yo 80-90% of registered D’s and 20-30% of U’s. The math says it’s not enough* to win, but people still vote for that candidate. Why?
*The math, especially before the race, should not be the sole determining factor, but it does seem to matter in such a way that neither should be no factor.
And – no complaint or criticism of specific candidates or campaigns – candidates who are running against the numbers can hardly ever rely on just executing the campaign 101 playbook flawlessly and being smart and correct on the issues. The math is what it is. If you can’t change it, you gotta change the way you campaign.
I’m not buying it this time. If the bagger wins, it will be due to leadership failure at the top of the CO Democratic Party, a failure to motivate the progressive base.
Now address my substantive point about change vs. the status quo comforting appearance of change. If a nonentity like Salazar or Bennet wins an election and opens yet another Washington Waffle House, what, prey, has been achieved? In what sense can I say that I’ve had a satisfactory return on my time and money? Frame your answer in terms of furthering the greater good rather than avoiding the greater evil.
Address that!
Winning tastes better. All of nothing… not very filling. Did you really like it better when Rs held our state legislature, the Gov’s house, the majority of our congressional delegation and every vote was a vote against anything approaching a progressive agenda?
That’s where we’d still be if we were stupid enough to listen to maroons like you. All the progress has been made with close to the center candidates who only vote the way we want 85% to 90% of the time as opposed to never. Call us crazy but we really don’t want to go back to the days of 0% for bragging rights about not giving an inch.
There does seem to be an attempt marginalize me on some island somewhere.
Now, seriously, we’ve got a Senate healthcare bill that put the insurance industry in a better position than it was prior to its enactment. (Don’t believe me, google health insurance stock prices between Oct. 2009 and now and compare their rate of appreciation with other securities.) Can you in all honesty tell me you’re satisfied? You appear to have incredibly low expectations, Cat.
And I’ll be right behind you in your demands. The bill we have is better than the status quo and was the most that they could get through the Senate. Politics is many times the least bad alternative.
…you’re a sensitive guy. Do you repudiate your friends calling me a maroon (sic) and a Nazi? Or does your sensitivity just go out to people on your side?
Bob was just pointing out why the far left and far right have a lot in common – and used the political mess in the Wiemar Republic as an example.
As to others calling you a maroon, put on your big boy pants if you’re going to play here. I get called a lot worse at times. Politics is a contact sport.
One of my family members died in Buchenwald. He was a communist partizan in Yugoslavia fighting the Nazis. His parish priest turned him in to the Gestapo. No doubt the priest was a lesser of two evils guy working within the constraints of the system–much like you.
What the fuck? I mean, fucking hell you have some nerve.
You’re doing a damned fine job all by yourself.
Do you condone your allies comparing me to a Nazi or referring to me as a maroon (sic)? Are you willing to let corporate Dems sink that low?
1) that I have “allies” here. Far from it. I just think you’re making progressives look bad.
2) that I or anyone else knows what a “corporate Dem” is. It’s your vernacular, please explain it. Am I a “corporate Dem” because I own a small business? Is David? (Hint: I’m registered U)
Might want to stop assuming that every Dem in Colorado is a progressive. Yes, the Democratic Party has a “progressive” wing, just as the Republican Party has a “tea party” wing. However, aggregating everyone to fit your personal views isn’t an accurate representation of the whole.
Are you willing to risk trying to win without us?
…did anybody notice that the progressive wing of the Democratic Party just got equated with teabaggers? Anybody else feeling motivated?
Most of the people disagreeing with you here are progressive. I’m progressive. What we’re doing is observing the common thread between tea-baggers and people out on the far far left like you. In both cases you prefer intellectual purity to success and incremental progress.
We aren’t all part of one big tea party style mind meld. We don’t have a single talking points list handed down from on high with deviaition resulting in expulsion. We know where we live and what it takes to win here. Crickets are what appear to be between your ears.
I either missed your answer as to who you would like to see for Governor or you just evaded the question for 3 days straight while you continue your bitch fest.
The big problem unions face is not card check, it’s that they have not adapted to the times.
I also think it’s more important that the decision of if a workplace should be unionized should happen quickly. The delaying tactics allow for all kinds of games by the company.
Stagarite,
The reason people are looking at you as a “maroon” (spelled “moran” in modern times) is that you’re showing yourself incapable of understanding (or expressing) nuance.
Voyageur’s comment is no different (except by example) than something I’ve said (I think here) in the past – that if you go far enough to the left, it isn’t too hard to find the far right staring you in the face.
And I don’t take Sam’s “comparison” any differently – there is a corporatist wing of the Democratic party just like there’s a liberal wing of the Republican party, just like…
If you think that many of the “Democratic” posters here don’t want, ideally, radical progressive change (e.g. a single-payer health care system), then I think you’re wrong. The reason progressive legislators seem to always wind up caving (based on your idea of what should have happened) is that they’d rather have half a loaf of change than none at all – and they have to work with their more conservative colleagues.
Simply put, “try winning without us” swings both ways. The Democratic Party is in power now because it has a larger tent than the Republican Party (and because Republicans screwed up so badly). IMHO, the population fo this country is liberal – until it comes to election time, at which point the conservative fear of the pocketbook comes in to play. If you want to overcome that fear, you’ve got to work in increments.
“One” is the number that comes to mind…
I’m guessing there are at least 5 or 6 votes total.
or should they splinter and be the maroon party?
The above dialog says a lot about the level of conversation and thought that appears here with ever-greater consistency. Whereas the right-wing Democrats on the site can’t wait to dump on “purists,” they themselves take the position “our way or the highway,” assuming that “Republican lite” is the only route to success.
Is it? It wasn’t for H Clinton, as I remember. Didn’t seem to be working well for Bill Ritter. If U’s in the state want Republicans, why wouldn’t they vote for them…instead of Democrats in disguise?
Meantime, the personal attacks reach a new low — and yes, the PlyFer theory (“meaning” lies between what’s implied and what’s inferred) says that merely mentioning Nazis and Communists will be taken to suggest that someone being attacked is a “Nazi” or a “Communist” from ’30s Germany– but not for long, I would expect. It is what ColoradoPols has become to a great extent, half a dozen (or so) bored people chatting among friends (Salazar for Governor! Hickenloopdeloop for Governor! Whomever the In-Crowd Says for Governor!) and lashing out in crude ways at those outside their little self-satisfied circle, often encouraged by “editors” of the site at least one of whom considers it appropriate to put down one poster in her sig line!
Obama got a fair amount of criticism early on for echoing right-wing talking points (about Social Security, for example). He also advocated “bipartisanship” or even “postpartisanship,” while Clinton seemed to me to have a better understanding of just why bipartisanship probably wouldn’t work out well.
The most popular “purist” candidate in that election was Complete Fraud John Edwards, although I can think of some people I used to know who probably stopped caring once Kucinich dropped out.
You supported Obama at some point, right? He was far more corporatist than Kucinich, self-evidently and early on. Did you feel like you were selling out at some point?
and to the quality of discussions that focus almost exclusively on ad hominem attacks and labels without bothering to address underlying issues.
was right about almost everything.
He got two things wrong: he thought America would get his sense of humor and he actually thought he could win.
Otherwise he was right about just about everything.
who of the likely candidates would you support for governor?
I think the Democrats have a deep bench each possible candidate with different appeal. Some of which is purely electoral, not just theirs, but down ballot or long term, some of which how they would govern.
I understand you don’t care about their electoral prospects, a valid position, but if you are going to criticize you should have an alternative.
…I’ll deliver my coveted endorsement. However, I need to be courted. At the moment, well, I’m undermotivated. Perhaps if we had competent leadership at the top of the party…
You also would like the prospective candidates to spend their time courting the left wing of the party.
Personally I would love a very progressive candidate (I can think of several), but I would prefer they spend time speaking to the swing voters that will decide the election.
…he or she has to earn it. The first step is that they or their supporters have to ask me for it. Comparing me to a Nazi or calling me a maroon (sic) isn’t helpful. By the way, do you repudiate that sort of web conduct?
Are you asking for me to apologize for other people’s conduct or to be responsible for it?
I generally avoid name calling (Libertad excluded), but if you are asking me to take a side in your dispute with others regarding conduct, I would recommend against it as you may not like my position.
Your allies on this thread have compared me to a Nazi and called me a maroon (sic). Without changing your position, do you repudiate that conduct?
Here comes what you will perceive as an insult, but it is not intended as one. Why do you feel so persecuted as to assume there is a cabal against you?
Since I do not want you to feel more persecuted, I was merely asking if you had an acceptable candidate in mind, I will smile politely and say that’s an interesting question.
…do you think it’s acceptable to call people maroons (sic) or compare them to Nazis? In what way is this furthering of party unity? For somebody who complains about me not answering a question, you’re displaying a hell of allot of evasiveness yourself.
Not to answer for Danny but one of the things I appreciate about the web is people are direct.
…you like it when people compare me to a Nazi or call me a maroon (sic), but you don’t have the stones to do it yourself?
Because it appears that you don’t understand what people here are saying. You asked a general question of is it ok to use certain descriptive terms. My reply was that when they are accurate – yes.
I personally don’t think you’re a Nazi. On the moron question – based on your posts I think it’s a fair assumption. But mostly I think you’re a cry-baby.
but isn’t “maroon” something Bugs Bunny used to call people?
But with him out one thing is true-
Caplis and Caplis-lite are going to have to back track on the “Obama & Salazar coup*” bs they cooked up yesterday. Perhaps something like this just proves how disorganized and ineffective the Obama administration is cause they cou;dn’t even get their handpicked guy.
Either way, Caplis will have dreamt up some way that this is good for R’s and bad for D’s.
*Caplis & Silverman, 630 KHOW, Jan 6 2010
Kiss Ass Ken says:
Translation: Good ‘ol Hick, he can appease the GOP just as good as me.
Keep in mind Eugene V. Debs has been dead for some time.
But my subject question was serious. Of the politicians who could potentially even think about running, who would your preferred candidate be?
great minds
Is Morgan Carroll. She would be good, but I don’t even think she could win a contested primary. I think all of this is founded on his false premise that progressives are the majority of the Colorado Democratic Party.
“The base” is actually a severely fragmented collection of somewhat overlapping interest groups with different opinions and ideologies. But the people who Stag thinks are “real” progressives (everyone else is a “corporatist”) make up a very small percentage of Colorado Dems–virtually all of whom are in the metro area.
In the last City Council election one of the winners was a **gasp** Republican.
…is merely whether or not you’re willing to bet that you can win without us. If you don’t think you can, then you’d better encourage establishment Dems to start courting us. After all, if there’s all that love out there for Joe Lieberman and Ben Nelson, there’s gotta be a little left over for us.
It’s interesting to see that there’s some pretty heavy rhetorical artillery being used against me at the moment. Apparently, those using it actually think I’m kinda dangerous and need to be silenced. In that respect, they’ve tipped their hands and tacitly recognized the power behind what I’ve been saying. If you’re savvy as you think you are, you’ll do the same.
I think you should keep talking.
In the process, please try to clarify exactly how many votes you control. Because anytime someone issues half an ultimatum (“You’d better encourage establishment Dems to start courting us”) someone else might ask, “or what?”
We’re terrified of Libertad.
I don’t think your “threats” scare anyone, but I think there are a lot of people who enjoy conversing with someone with whom they disagree. I know that you might be confused about that given where you usually blog, but don’t confuse a spirited debate for anything than what it is.
Simply put, Democratic failure to deliver on campaign promises has put many of us in an untenable position. A clear pattern of exploitation of the base by vested economic interests within the Democratic party is now visible to anybody who wants to see it. People like me who ask people to volunteer time and give money need to believe in what we do if we are going to ask in good faith. This is a matter of conscience for me. Please don’t belittle it by referring to it as a “threat.”
by thinking that the majority of posters on this site don’t match the description you just made of yourself.
…then we’re dealing with naive or unprincipled people. We need to be able to ask people to do things without nagging doubts that their good will will be exploited.
Oh, and as a bit of trivia, a member of my family died in Buchenwald. He was a communist partizan in Yugoslavia. His parish priest turned him in to the Gestapo. No doubt the priest thought that he had allied himself with the lesser evil and was acting morally within the constraints of the situation.
You don’t know me either. Virtually my entire family on my father’s side was murdered by the Nazis–only my grandparents got out alive because, when my grandpa and grandma, after having escaped Warsaw with their lives, were caught near the Poland/USSR border by a squad of SS, and a cocky German officer said if my grandpa got down on his knees and begged for his life he would be spared.
While I think Voyageur definitely confirmed Godwin’s law (in a thread about Ritter’s replacement of all threads) I don’t think he was calling you a Nazi. I also don’t think that equates me as a collaborator as you apparently do. Also, in doing so, haven’t you just equated everyone else with Nazi sympathizers? That’s gotta be only slightly better than equating someone with a Nazi.
Real fun trading holocaust stories with you though.
Someone with your history standing back and letting the Nazi comparison go through…possibly because it abets a marginalization process of which, apparently, you approve.
…that nobody has to be a functionary. Not even you.
But I’ve been trying not to get bogged down in personal back and forths between posters lately. I thought SXP did a good job.
Honestly I’ve seen so many Nazi comparisons getting thrown around in the last two years in American politics I’ve grown numb.
And whatever you do, don’t pull back the curtain.
Democrats don’t have a SINGLE base, just like Republicans don’t have a SINGLE base. There is no catch-all description of a Democrat or a Republican. You’re not MORE of a Democrat or MORE of a Republican if you are more left or right of center — you’re just your own version of it.
There are a lot of people who would consider themselves as party of the Democratic or Republican “base” that likely don’t agree on more than 60% of the issues.
Great post. It didn’t make me laugh out loud like Voyageur’s carpet eating post, but great in a non funny kind of way.
Who do you recommend, not just to run but to run and win?
The coveted Stagarite endorsement will come as, Hopium2 says, after I take an “appropriate time to consider whether [it] is the right thing to do.”
Maurice Schwenkler
…a corporatist Dem takes the low road. How low will they go when the designated followers fail to play ball?
maybe break out windows at D HQ?
might have given you the boot, does not mean you will find sympathy here.
who would make a good candidate. We’ll just add that to the list.
I love everything, except Romanoff still (apparently) running for Senate.
Salazar is a great Interior Secretary.
Bennet is a great US Senator.
Hickenlooper will be a great Governor.
Ritter will be able to make budget decisions that are the right thing to do rather than just politically expedient (i.e., cut special interest tax exemptions).
I think Romanoff should just accept a plum job appointment (many have been offered) and continue to be a great public servant.
I think it would be a good fit for Romanoff. Denver is his pond and he’d get to be the big fish.
With most politicians this would be B.S. meaning they’re just waiting a day to announce. But with Hick, I think this is sincere.
Remember how long he left Ritter twisting? Let’s hope this time he keeps his navel gazing time to a minimum. Come on Hick. Don’t go all flaky on us. Give us a yes or no so we can get this wrapped up. And if it’s no, I hope Salazar will reconsider.
If Hick and Salazar are both out, then we basically go back to square one in terms of candidates. Those are the only two who have enough electoral positives to create an advantage for Dems.
Perlmutter and Romanoff would both be good Guvs, but as far as candidates go, I think the Mayor and Sec. Salazar are the strongest.
Perlmutter and Kennedy. Perlmutter killed in the most evenly balanced district in the state. And Kennedy ran a great state-wide campaign. Either one would rock.
I also think John Salazar and Betsy Markey could strongly win. But in those cases we likely give up a house seat.
I don’t think Romanoff can do it. His Senate campaign has been so poor, I questions his campaigning ability. (I still think we owe him a big thank you and would do a great job governing – but you have to be able to get elected.)
Suburban Women.
And she has proven she can win statewide. But, according to sources close to the campaign, she would defer to Perlmutter (I think) and Romanoff (I know).
I’m counting myself.
Perlmutter would be the next best choice but Dems need to get going on this and Hick needs to know this is no time to play will he, won’t he. He needs to man up or get the hell out of the way ASAP.
I just realized that I have gotten so charged up the last couple of days.
1. Bill Ritter was a great example of family should come first. Something we should all try to live up to.
2. We have this incredible bench of superbly qualified candidates to run for Governor.
3. The ordering and handling of who should run and how they announce has been amazingly well handled.
4. Meanwhile McInnis & Norton seems to be in a race for the bottom.
We Dems rock! I’m ready for the election tomorrow. We’re going to take everything in Colorado that’s close – and a number that were considered safely Republican.
Bring it on!!!
1. That family crap is a nice cover and I’m sure the wife believes it …. the driving reason he ran for the showers in the 4th Quarter has yet to be revealed. In the meantime, it’s a nice cover.
2 & 3. Some incredible bench: Hick defers to Kenny; Kenny reviews polls, notes commitment to Barry and backs Hick; then Hick can’t commit. WTF?
Read more: http://www.denverpost.com/news…
Anyone have the polling data on how much Hick is kicking McInnis’ ass by? 😉
I hear its McInnis 46, Hick 39 D’oh thats some bench.
And you will stop being compared to Libertad.
I’ll give you this, you’re at least a smart troll. Libertad is just persistent.
You’re at the opposite end of the political spectrum, but you’re equally factless and annoying.
how Mayor Hickenlooper can win a statewide race.
This is no disrespect to the Mayor because I think he is doing a good job–but dont see how he can win statewide.
during the Ref C campaign. Not only that, but among Denver Metro politicians, he’s one of the most well known.
And Hickenlooper support is deep among Republicans, especially in metro Denver. It’s McInnis, coming from Grand Junction and all but unknown in the metro area, who has to scramble for a base.
We’ve been saying this over and over for years on Colorado Pols. Colorado has changed significantly in the last decade, to the point where 80-85% of active voters reside along the Front Range between Ft. Collins and Pueblo.
This is no disrespect to the West Slope, but the numbers don’t lie — there just aren’t enough voters out there to swing an election anymore. As a statewide candidate, if you win the Front Range, you only need to be mildly competitive (35-40%) around the rest of the state and you’re golden.
In 2006, Ken Salazar beat Pete Coors because of Denver voters. He received so many more votes in Denver than Coors — if memory serves, it was well over 100,000 — that any advantage Coors might have had in rural areas was completely erased.
If you don’t do well along the Front Range, and particularly in more populated Metro Denver (Denver, Jefferson, Arapahoe counties), then you can’t win statewide. It’s an unfortunate reality in Colorado, but the vast majority of our 64 counties are irrelevent in a statewide race because of their small populations.
Why, I haven’t been called irrelevant since . . . since . . . since the State ended my job a month ago!
For county by county, or any other break – look it up and let us know.
ANd not long before that we elected a governor who polled very weak in Denver metro, but did really well outside Denver and won by a narrow margin.
Turnout will make all the difference, but predicatable turnouts in the urban areas will win the predicted turnouts out side of those areas.
But as part of that analysis, we have to start looking at those Front Range voters who live in Larimer and Weld counties – two counties where populations have exploded over the last 10 years. A candidate who can carry at least one of those counties and remain competitive in the other, and pick up Dem votes in Denver/Jeffco is a shoe in. Both Ken Salazar and Bill Ritter knew how to do that.
Which is why I am surprised Betsy Markey hasn’t been discussed more as a candidate. She probably does not want to leave a House seat…but looking at just electoral math on paper, she’d be one of the smartest picks.
Wikipedia says 60% of Colorado’s population lives in the 12 counties comprising Denver-Aurora-Boulder area. So Hickenlooper could theoretically not get a single vote from any of 52 counties and still win by a landslide.
and has made great efforts to build ties with rural commissioners and other leaders. I’m sure any poll would show Hickenlooper has higher name ID in, say, Delta County than McInnis has in Arapahoe County.
Hickenlooper would do well, if not win in Summit, Eagle, Routt, Pitkin and La Plata due to his high name ID. Does anyone have name ID poll numbers for Hickenlooper versus McInnis?
As a West Sloper, I grudgingly agree with Pols, there is no such thing as a statewide race. As long as a candidate can win the metro area, the plains and the West Slope are inconsequential. No one out here will ever admit or perhaps even realize that, but its the truth.
That said, much like the sage and measured Stagarite, we on the West Slope prefer to be courted a bit–if for no other reason than to make us feel pretty. However, unlike Stagarite, we can at least help out in an election bid, albeit in a nominal manner of looking useful in photo ops.
and even Grand Junction looks big compared to Joes. I do believe in statewide races. Mesa may be 2-1 R and Denver 2-1 D. But a Democrat who can cut into the R majority in Mesa, like Bernie Buescher, without losing the D majorities in Denver, Pueblo, Boulder, etc. is well on the way to victory.
It just that you have to start with a base. As sxp151 notes, metro denver is 60 percent of the state. That’s hick’s base. A lot more voters in Littleton know who he is than who is mayor of Littleton. the saturation coverage of Hick by Denver media actually makes him known statewide. But to win, he needs to go out to Lamar, Sterling, Craig, Montrose, etc. and work this state. But I’d rather start with the 60 pct of metro denver as my base and work the ropeline in the rest of the state than begin with the approximately 12 percent that lives in the Western Slope portion of McInnis’ old CD and be a stranger to 88 percent of the state
Had a lot of great meals at the Reynolds Cafe as a kid. You a Liberty Knight? We used to refer to Joes as “Little Chicago” …oh, those were the days.
I’ve just always been fond of Joes.
I may have overestimated you. And that’s really saying something.
The eastern plains stuff confirmed what I had thought. Great writing style, unlike your drivel.
Unloading your bullshit off the Libertad dumptrack.
I guess I’m a job creater … with no corrupt stimulus cash needed
My separation package had a one-year nocompete clause that covered blogs.
i hope you’re still this handsome
Actually, I shaved the beard because it had turned white and made me look even older than I am.
..during the Bob Smith wrestling dynasty.
When I was there they had one kid, Gene Stallings was his name I think, who had one leg. In a bizarre way, people envied him because he’d take off his prosthetic leg to weigh in and could wrestle a class below his torso weight. As I recall, he was pretty good.
Wray had the wrestlers and Yuma the football dynasty. I remember playing defensive tackle on a goal line stand when Bernie McCall came running at me./ I hit him with all I had and he wouldn’t go down. I hung on until help arrived and stopped him. Next play he paid me the compliment of running to the other side and scored.
..and the 1953 Homecoming game when Wray upset Yuma and they still haven’t gotten over it! Come to think of it they still haven’t gotten over the fact we moved the Court House from Yuma to Wray after the local bar owner offered free pickled pigs feet on election day 100 years ago to anyone who would come to Wray and vote to have it moved! The more things change, the more they stay the same
Hick’s is Denver, with over 10% of the states population, and McInnis’ Grand Junction, with less than 1% of the population. Neither has run for nor been elected to state-wide office. I don’t think it is a stretch to say that Hick has got more name recognition that McInnis.
Let’s be realistic, however. By the time Hick gets in, IF he gets in, McInnis will be two quarters ahead in fundraising.
I’m not saying if he can/can’t make up that deficit, because I don’t follow Denver politics and don’t know that much about him.
The same problem will be faced by anyone getting in now. I think Salazar could have plugged into his Rolodex and made up the gap fairly quickly. But he’s not running.
Can’t Ritter refund all of his campaign contributions with the hope that most of it will be re-contributed to the Democratic gubernatorial nominee?
be lacking for money if he enters the race.
and the last I looked, they were the major source of campaign contributions.
Thank you.
Now, read Page Smith’s 8 volume People’s History of the United States. I doubt you’ll learn anything from it, but at least it will keep you from embarrassing yourself on this blog.
As most is 3rd party spending
where more was spent by third parties. In each, the third-party money made it impossible for the candidate to control his or her own message.
Candidate funding is far preferable to third-party funding, even if the third-party is on your side.
He’s got managerial experience of budgets and a huge bureaucracy, is innovative, quirky, and would make a great governor. He would have a learning curve to tackle state issues, but I have no doubt he could handle it.
As a candidate, he’s very charming, outgoing, and smart. He’s also quick on the 1 liners and can engage an individual or crowd. McInnis should be deeply worried.
wouldn’t Scott have to be thinking deeply?
Woo!!