Who Will Win? (Senate)

by: Colorado Pols

Fri Nov 09, 2007 at 12:07:06 PM MST

It's that time again. Remember to cast your vote based on who you think will win, not on who you support.

Who Will Win? (Senate)

by: Colorado Pols

Thu Sep 27, 2007 at 09:16:20 AM MDT

Check out last month's results, or click below to vote. Remember to vote on who you think will ultimately win, not on who you support.

Senate Race Drops to #3; Schaffer Touts Mythical Poll

by: Colorado Pols

Fri Sep 21, 2007 at 09:46:29 AM MDT

UPDATE: Here's the memo on the poll. Interestingly, one of the items in the memo notes that "Voters already know that Mark Udall is a liberal." Okay, so voters know Udall is a liberal, yet they still prefer him to Schaffer? That's good news for Bob?

From The Washington Post blog "The Fix":

3. Colorado (R): The open seat race between Rep. Mark Udall (D) and former Rep. Bob Schaffer (R) drops two slots this month but the fundamental dynamic of the race remains unaltered. Republicans are already beginning to paint Udall as a "Boulder liberal" while Democratsd are making the counter argument that Schaffer is far more conservative than the average Colorado voter. Having huddled with Schaffer earlier this week, we came away impressed by his plainspokeness and his -- to our mind -- smart strategic plan to run as a reform-minded candidate. Republicans are pushing back hard on the idea that this race is Udall's to lose. Schaffer's campaign released a poll that showed him trailing Udall by just two points in a three-way race. And they make the argument that the Democrats who have been elected in the last few years have run as conservatives, putting to lie the idea that the state had fundamentally changed its ideological underpinnings.(Previous ranking: 1)

Schaffer released a poll showing him two points back in a three-way race? It turns out that this third candidate is a Green Party candidate, Bob Kinsey, who picks up seven - yes, 7 - percentage points in the Schaffer poll.

That's all well and good for Schaffer, but no third party candidate received more than 1% of the vote in the 2006 gubernatorial race or the 2004 Senate race. Even the most well-known and well-funded Green Party candidate in recent history, Ralph Nader, managed just 5% of the vote in Colorado when he ran for President in 2000. Touting this three person poll is beyond ridiculous, because a Green Party candidate in Colorado will be lucky to get 2% of the vote.

This three person poll is in fact the same Schaffer poll that shows him five points behind Udall in a straight-up matchup, which is obviously bad news for a Republican in a Republican state.

Schaffer apparently does much better in a three-way race with a mythical strong third-party candidate. Perhaps he should poll on a pretend four-way race to see if that puts him over the top. Talk about grasping for straws.

Wayne Wolf Tours West Slope

by: Colorado Pols

Fri Sep 21, 2007 at 08:54:06 AM MDT

Delta County Commissioner Wayne Wolf is making a run at the U.S. Senate. He's seeking the Republican nomination for the Senate seat vacated by retiring Senator Wayne Allard.

Wolf began his ambitious campaign with plans to visit every town in Colorado that hosts a newspaper.

"I thought it would be neat if I could do all the towns in Colorado," he said on Wednesday, Sept. 12, in Rifle, his third stop of the day in western Colorado towns.

"I am going to be representative of the whole state, so this is a good way to get to know the state," he said.

He started his campaign that Wednesday morning in Delta announcing his intention to run. He then set out on the road with stops in Montrose, Grand Junction and Rifle, ending his first day in Craig. One week later, on Sept. 19, Wolf rolled into Glenwood Springs to attend a Republican meeting at Buffalo Valley Inn...

He wants to be the connection between Washington and rural Colorado like Garfield County.

"You need to respect the local process," Wolf said. "Disregarding the public process is running contrary to what (Senators) are elected to do."

More on Wolf's campaign kickoff tour in today's Durango Herald.

We don't see Wolf winning a Republican primary, but this town-by-town approach he is taking could prove fruitful. Bob Schaffer is being touted by the press as the "establishment candidate," and he can't be that loved by Republicans given his drubbing by Pete Coors in 2004.

Wolf won't have the money to compete with Schaffer, but if he creates some sort of grassroots uprising by campaigning personally while Schaffer is holed up raising money, he could force Schaffer to get away from the phones a little and start campaigning sooner than he would like. Win or (more likely) lose, Wolf may yet change the dynamics of this race.