We've always been mystified by the interest in Aurora city council member Ryan Frazier, who seems to get a lot more credit than he deserves. But after losing his bid for Aurora Mayor last night to Steve Hogan in a race that wasn't really close (Hogan won by 10 points), Frazier should be pretty well done in Colorado.
Frazier was touted as a rising star among Colorado Republicans when he tried running for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in 2009. He eventually dropped that race to take on incumbent Democrat Ed Perlmutter in CD-7...and promptly got the crap kicked out of him. Perlmutter beat Frazier by 11 points, yet for some reason Frazier was widely praised by local and national media for having been a strong candidate.
Here's what we wrote about Frazier following the 2010 mid-term elections, when we named him one of the "Losers" of the cycle:
Sometimes a candidate will lose a big race but do well enough that he or she is considered a rising star. Frazier? Not so much. He got bullied out of the Republican Senate primary to run in CD-7, where he proceeded to get the absolute crap kicked out of him by Rep. Ed Perlmutter. Frazier is a good fundraiser and is decent at delivering a prepared speech, but his campaign was amateurish at best and he otherwise proved to be immature, vacuous and just plain silly in unscripted moments. In one debate, he repeatedly demanded that Perlmutter tell him the page number of something in the health care bill; when your big attack is that your opponent can't recall page numbers, you're running a student council campaign.
It's not losing the race that hurts Frazier, but the fact that he couldn't even be competitive in a Republican year. Frazier lost by 11 points to Perlmutter and received about 13,000 fewer votes than 2008 GOP candidate John Lerew, a guy whose own yard signs said "John Who?"
Ryan Frazier has now lost high-profile races in consecutive years by double digits, and there's now no denying the fact that he's just not a very good politician. Sure, he's a good speaker (even if he sounds like he's doing an impression of Barack Obama) and a decent fundraiser, but his campaigns have been downright ridiculous at times. Whether traveling to the Mexico border to stare at the fence, or claiming in a recent robo-call that the "Occupy Wall Street" crowd was out to get him, Frazier was less statesman than used-car salesman. And voters have noticed; it's worth repeating that Frazier hasn't just lost -- he's lost in a landslide in consecutive elections.
If the shine wasn't completely off of Frazier after 2010, surely it is today. Donors aren't going to back him a third time, not after that performance record, so we've probably seen the last of Frazier as a candidate for public office.
Democratic Rep. Ed Perlmutter easily dispatched Republican challenger Ryan Frazier in 2010 despite Frazier (and the RNCC) spending a good deal of money on what turned out to be a rather weak campaign. But Perlmutter isn't sitting back and hoping that he scared off a potential 2012 challenger -- not with redistricting looming and potential changes to CD-7 making his re-election tougher.
Today, Perlmutter's campaign announced that he had raised $277,617 in Q1, the highest total amount reported by Perlmutter for this period since 2006. Full press release after the jump...
A Republican-turned-Democrat is preparing to announce her candidacy against a Democrat-turned-Republican for mayor of Aurora, The Colorado Statesman has learned.
Former state Rep. Debbie Stafford - who finished her legislative career as a Democrat after being elected four times as a Republican from House District 40 - is planning a run against former City Councilman and former state Rep. Steve Hogan, one of two announced candidates in the nonpartisan November election for the open seat...
...Stafford's entry into the race will mean Democrats have candidates up and down the ticket in the November Aurora election. While the election is nonpartisan - party affiliation isn't listed on the ballot, and candidates win slots via petition, not by party nomination - some of Stafford's backers said the candidacy of conservative Republican and Tea Party favorite Jude Sandvall could make it harder for Hogan to count on a win in a city that tends to elect Republicans.
Aurora is one of Colorado's five largest cities, so there is a lot of political upside to being elected Mayor. Outgoing Mayor Ed Tauer has long been mentioned as a potential candidate for higher office numerous times. Aurora City Council member and former CD-7 Republican candidate Ryan Frazier has been rumored to be looking at running for Mayor, though the likely strong candidacy of Steve Hogan may keep Frazier at bay.
On Wednesday, our friends over at "The Fix" listed their opinion on the "Ten Best Canididates of 2010." Not all of the Top Ten were winning candidates, such as Democratic Rep. Tom Perriello:
Perriello drew loads of national attention during his first two years in office as an unapologetic supporter of President Obama's agenda despite the Republican-leaning nature of the district -- Virginia's 5th -- that he represented. That approach led to an assumption that he would be crushed by state Sen. Robert Hurt (R) on Nov. 2. But, through a combination of massive fundraising and sheer will -- not to mention a last minute campaign visit from President Obama -- Perriello went into election day with a real chance. He ultimately lost the race but his four-point margin was smaller than almost anyone expected and set him up as a potential statewide candidate in future elections. [Pols emphasis]
This got us thinking about something we briefly touched on in our "Winners and Losers" of the 2010 Elections: Which Colorado candidates who lost in 2010 performed well enough that they could still be called "Winners" overall? [More after the jump...]
UPDATE (11:25): The big Denver paper and many of the other big TV stations have some major problems with their reporting. The Denver Post, for example, had Buck ahead of Bennet 48-46, on the strength of a 52-45 advantage in Boulder. A quick check of the Boulder Clerk and Recorder's website has Bennet leading Buck 67-29. There are a lot of somebodies who should have caught this immediately -- there's no way Boulder County would go solid red for any Republican.
We recommend sticking with the results from Fox 31, which not only has a page that seems to actually load correctly, but isn't making any obvious errors that we can see.
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UPDATE (11:16): It looks like we may be headed for at least one state legislative recount. In HD-29, Democratic Rep. Debbie Benefield trails Republican Robert Ramirez by 148 votes (50.34% to 49.66%).
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UPDATE (11:12): That didn't last long. With 56% of ballots counted, Bennet and Buck are now tied at 47-47.
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UPDATE (11:00): Buck has pulled ahead of Bennet for the first time tonight, leading 49-46 with 49% of precincts reporting.
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UPDATE (9:50): It's looking like the race that will have the biggest impact from an ACP candidate will not be the one anybody expected. The Secretary of State race is neck-and-neck, but the ACP candidate is already pulling 6% of the vote. Buescher may well win this seat by virtue of the American Constitution Party.
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UPDATE (9:44): The percentage of precincts reporting continues to rise, and Michael Bennet continues to hold a 50-45 lead over Ken Buck. This is not good news for Buck, because early returns should have favored him (Republicans voted in higher numbers than Democrats in early and absentee voting). Given Buck's numerous gaffes in the last two weeks of the campaign, it's not likely that late voters are going to choose him over Bennet, so it's hard to see how Buck is going to make up 5 points with 27% of the vote already tallied.
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UPDATE (9:08): It's always fun to see those really early returns that show absurd numbers. In HD-22, Democrat Christine Radeff is pummeling Republican incumbent Ken Summers 7,875 to 12. Yes, 12. For a few more minutes, anyway.
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UPDATE (9:05): Republican Cory Gardner is being declared the winner in CD-4.
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UPDATE (9:03): The Secretary of State race is coming down to the wire, and may be decided by the number of votes pulled in by the American Constitution Party candidate. Meanwhile, the race for Attorney General seems to be widening in favor of incumbent John Suthers.
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UPDATE (9:00): Democratic Rep. Ed Perlmutter has been declared the winner in CD-7.
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An attack ad by Republican Ryan Frazier that goes after Rep. Ed Perlmutter for "allowing convicted rapists to receive Viagra" -- a claim that has repeatedly been found to be untrue -- has been pulled by 9News and will no longer run on the station.
According to a press release from Perlmutter's campaign:
In a rare move, KUSA - Ch. 9 decided to pull the false and misleading ad against Ed Perlmutter which asserted that because he voted for the new health insurance reform law, he supported the ability for convicted rapists to access Viagra. Adam Schrager from KUSA did the fact check on this ad, declaring it completely FALSE and stated "Perlmutter never voted for it." Furthermore, the new health insurance reform law does not contain any provisions in it concerning this assertion.
This is the second attack ad run against Perlmutter that Schrager and Ch. 9 declared false. The ads, were funded by the shadowy, Republican-operative run American Action Network, which sunk more than $1 million into the false advertising.
"KUSA did the right thing," said Perlmutter spokeswoman Leslie Oliver. "These kinds of false and distorted ads are examples of what happens when these outside shadow groups aren't required to disclose their donors. This is an abuse of our political system and a disservice to voters who should be able to make a decision about the future of our country based on the truth - not lies."
According to the Denver Post, one of Frazier's donors, Rich Beeson, who is a Republican political operative in Colorado, is connected to the consultants for the AAN, and was involved in the decision to run this ad attacking Perlmutter.
KMGH and the Denver Post have both declared the ad false as well.
As we wrote when Cory Gardner's false ads were pulled in CD-4 for accusing Rep. Betsy Markey of taking votes that actually belonged to Rep. ED Markey, this kind of press is really damaging to the candidates behind the ads. When a station pulls an ad for being false, it leaves voters to question how much of your other assertions are really true.
The campaign of Democratic Rep. Ed Perlmutter is asking local television stations to stop running an ad from the American Action Network that Perlmutter's camp says has been proven false. From a press release:
Today, the Perlmutter campaign sent a letter asking TV stations in Denver to remove an advertisement attacking Ed Perlmutter based on the fact that it is "grossly inaccurate...and includes claims that independent news organizations have already declared false." Attached is the letter sent to station managers today, as well as a fact check on the entire ad.
In addition to numerous false allegations, the commercial alleges the health insurance reform bill "spent our money on health insurance for illegal immigrants." This is beyond political gamesmanship, this is a blatant lie, and the worst kind of scare-tactics that TV stations shouldn't be a party to. The health insurance reform bill signed into law by the President states that undocumented immigrants are specifically "excluded from receiving any benefits under health care reform." Perlmutter voted to ensure this provision was inserted in the law. See the attached letter for independently-verified citations.
The million dollar commercial is paid for by the American Action Network (AAN) and is funded by the very big Wall Street financial firms Ed voted to crack down on.
There is precedent, both in Colorado and in other states, for television stations to remove ads that are intentionally misleading or inaccurate. Click here to read the full letter from law firm Rothgerber, Johnson & Lyons.
We do our best to share with you some of the more entertaining press releases that we receive here at Colorado Pols, and we got a good one today.
The release below is from Buck Bailey, the Libertarian candidate in CD-7. There was no headline on the press release, but then, there really isn't much of a point to the whole thing anyway. Enjoy:
(Aurora) - Buck Bailey, Libertarian candidate for Congress in CD7 is looking forward to two opportunities on Thursday to highlight the fundamentally different approach to service in the US Congress he offers voters in this election.
First, he will meet with his fellow candidates as they tape a debate on CPT 12's Colorado Decides that will air Friday night. Then later, in the evening, he will meet Representative Perlmutter in a debate sponsored by the Jefferson County League of Women Voters.
Buck has been highly encouraged and energized by the acceptance of his message and his inclusion in numerous forums during this election season.
More information for Bailey can be obtained at his web site: Votebuckbailey.com
Buck looks forward to Thursday! But does Buck look forward to Friday? Hmmm...
According to a recent poll by Republican firm Magellan Strategies, Republican challenger Ryan Frazier leads Democrat incumbent Rep. Ed Perlmutter 40-39, with 11% undecided (MOE +/- 3.4%).
While the Frazier campaign certainly wants to trumpet this poll as a sign that he can defeat Perlmutter, we don't see it yet. This is the first public poll on this matchup, and Frazier doesn't actually do better than generic matchup polls between Republican and Democratic candidates. Since neither campaign has started heavy TV advertising, this poll is essentially a "generic R vs. D" poll.
The real problem for Frazier is that there's no reason to think he can expand on this. As of the last FEC reporting period, Perlmutter had a million dollars more cash on hand than Frazier; while that deficit could be made up somewhat by the NRCC, since CD-7 has never made it to the top of the pickup list, there's no reason to think the NRCC would spend any real money here when they have better odds in CD-4 with Cory Gardner.
According to the Cook Political Report, CD-7 is a "Likely Democrat" district, and President Obama won the district by 18 points in 2008. Frazier is going to need a lot more than this poll to convince national Republicans to toss real money into CD-7; barring that decision, he's got nowhere to go but down. There are three potentially vulnerable Democrats in Colorado (Perlmutter, Rep. John Salazar and Rep. Betsy Markey), and it's extremely unlikely that all three will lose their bid for re-election. Perlmutter has to be considered the safest of the three, if nothing else because he is in a district with a Democratic voter registration advantage.
We've gotten a couple of emails on this subject, so we thought we'd put a list together and see if the Pols community could help us fill it out. Which top-ticket Republican candidates (all statewide and congressional seats) have endorsed GOP Gubernatorial candidate Dan Maes, and who has yet to offer their public support?
REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES ENDORSING MAES
U.S. Senate candidate Ken Buck
Rep. Doug Lamborn (CD-5)
Rep. Mike Coffman (CD-6)
UNKNOWN POSITION OR NO ENDORSEMENT YET
Treasurer candidate Walker Stapleton
Attorney General John Suthers
Secretary of State candidate Scott Gessler
CD-4 candidate Cory Gardner
CD-7 candidate Ryan Frazier
Help us out, Polsters! Maes' website doesn't seem to have an updated list of endorsements, so if you've seen one of the candidates in the second list make an endorsement, let us know.
