Sorry to our Western Slope pals, but we had to comment on this bit of nonsense from something called The Snowmass Sun, titled "Can Hick Win the Western Slope?"
When Colorado Democratic Party Chairwoman Pat Waak came to Glenwood Springs last week, she came bearing a message from John Hickenlooper: "Tell everyone in Glenwood Springs hi and sorry I can't be there."
That's nice, but it's not enough. If Hickenlooper is going to win Colorado, he has to win places like this, and that means he's going to have to show up.
Waak knows that. Hickenlooper does, too. He may be wildly popular in Denver, and pretty darn popular outside of Denver, too, but to win as governor of Colorado he has to win the whole state, and that means winning the Western Slope.
His likely Republican foe, Scott McInnis, is an old hat on the Western Slope, and he mastered the art of winning it. As a congressman, he was an unbeatable force. Democrats rarely pitted anyone against him, and when they did, they lost.
McInnis has often argued that winning any state election comes down to winning the Western Slope, and there's some logic to that. Figure liberal Boulder and conservative Denver counter each other out. The conservative 'burbs counter liberal Denver. That mostly leaves the Western Slope to battle it out for the winner.
That's why this part of the state has become a big battleground, especially in recent elections. [Pols emphasis]
The Western Slope is a "big battleground?"
Um, yeah.
We've said it again and again here on Colorado Pols: Population shifts over the last 10 years have completely changed the electorate in Colorado. When Colorado had fewer residents, the electorate was more spread out across the state. But today, well more than 80% of Colorado voters live along the Front Range between Ft. Collins and Pueblo. We have no doubt that both John HickenlooperandScott McInnis know this, even if the Snowmass whatever does not.
Both candidates will come to the Western Slope and will campaign there, but the numbers just don't lie. The first major example of the population shift in Colorado and its effect on elections came in the 2004 Senate race, when Democrat Ken Salazar beat Republican Pete Coorsbecause of Denver voters. In Denver alone, Salazar outpolled Coors by more than 100,000 votes (169,580 to 60,387). That same year, a total of 62,341 people cast a ballot in all of Mesa County, which includes Grand Junction, the largest city on the Western Slope. In other words, Salazar got more than twice as many votes in Denver as there are voters in all of Mesa County, the most populous county on the Western Slope.
Those numbers have only increased in the years since. In 2008, Barack Obama beat John McCain in Denver by a 204,882 to 62,567 margin (a difference of 142,315 votes). In Mesa County, Obama lost to McCain 44,578 to 24,008 (a 20,570 vote margin). McCain would have needed to win Mesa County six more times just to erase the advantage Obama gained in Denver alone.
So will Hickenlooper or McInnis win the Western Slope? It doesn't matter, because if they don't win along the Front Range, and in the Denver Metro area specifically, then what they do on the Western Slope is irrelevant.
UPDATE #5:No confirmation yet that Hickenlooper is going to run, but last night sources said that the Mayor really wanted to do it but was waiting for Salazar's decision. Given the fact that Salazar publicly endorsed Hick if he runs, it's not a stretch to assume that he did so with knowledge of what the answer would be.
If Hickenlooper does not run, the next name to watch is Rep. Ed Perlmutter. We wrote earlier that is was highly unlikely that Salazar, Hickenlooper and Perlmutter all pass on running for Governor, but if that does happen for some reason, the next names on the list are Treasurer Cary Kennedy (the only potential candidate who could actually transfer some of her current warchest to a race for Governor), Andrew Romanoff and Rep. Betsy Markey.
UPDATE #4:Denver Postreports Salazar will endorse John Hickenlooper for Governor.
"I know John and Helen will seriously consider this historic opportunity that will define the future of State of Colorado and her people. This is a personal decision they must make and I will fully respect that decision," Salazar said.
"As for me, I have a job to do as Secretary of the Interior to implement President Obama's vision for a clean energy economy and to better protect America's great outdoors."
UPDATE #3: Multiple sources now confirming, Ken Salazar will NOT run. In that case, we'd put the odds that Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper will run at 95%. Developing.
UPDATE #2:Ken Salazar out? Just relaying this from The Atlantic'sMarc Ambinder until we get additional word, which we are seeking now:
This just in.... Interior Secretary Ken Salazar has decided NOT to run for governor in Colorado. Incumbent Democrat Bill Ritter is retiring. The likely candidate for the Dems, then, is Denver mayor John Hickenlooper.
UPDATE #1:: It seems that The Denver Post isn't buying the Republican spin that Ritter is retiring because he didn't think he could win:
...we don't believe that Ritter dropped out of the race because he was down in recent polls and feared losing the gubernatorial election to Republican Scott McInnis. [Pols emphasis] The margin was only single digits, and voters haven't unseated an incumbent governor since 1962...
...It may not have been noticeable to Coloradans, but this job has worn on the governor. We couldn't help but notice the lightness in Ritter's demeanor at his press conference, joking at times with journalists. It seemed as if the weight of the world had been lifted from his shoulders.
He had the appearance of a man who was very comfortable with his very difficult decision, and we're happy for him. The moment he finished his speech in the Capitol foyer, he turned and hugged his teenage son. Sometimes stepping away from a job to spend time with one's family means just that.
Colorado Pols also broke a record yesterday with our highest number of Page Views in one day, with 60,629 (but not a record for Unique Visitors in one day, curiously enough).
So we thought you might want another open thread on the topic.
(Bumped into Thursday for self-evident reasons - promoted by Colorado Pols)
After a wild 24 hours that saw more than 500 comments from Polsters in two separate posts, its time to take a look at the questions and answers from one of the more surprising political announcements in recent Colorado history.
Here's what we know, what we've heard, and all of the questions both answered and unanswered surrounding Gov. Bill Ritter's announcement today that he will not run for re-election in 2010.
Now that 2010 is here (and most of you are back to work after the holidays), it's time to take our look back on the decade that was.
We asked your opinions on what the Oughts Brought, and now it's time to start revealing the winners. We'll be here with this all week, folks, so check back for more categories every day.
Best/Worst Politician and Best/Worst Campaign awards after the jump.
Will Shafroth, who lost last year's three-way Democratic primary in CD-2 to Jared Polis, has picked up a new job. As The Colorado Independent reports:
Interior Secretary Ken Salazar announced Tuesday afternoon that fourth-generation Colorado resident Will Shafroth, who ran unsuccessfully for Congress last summer, will be the department's deputy assistant secretary for fish, wildlife and parks. A few weeks ago Salazar nominated another Colorado politician as Shafroth's boss, naming former Senate candidate and one-time U.S. Attorney Tom Strickland as his assistant secretary for fish, wildlife and parks.
It looks like the new Secretary of Health and Human Services, Tom Daschle will be making a stop in Denver at the Donald Seawell Grand Ballroom.
"In a release, Salazar praised Daschle as one of the country's leading voices on health care reform. "Senator Daschle would be an excellent choice for HHS Secretary," Salazar said. "I look forward to working with him and President-elect Obama to fix our broken health care system.""
More of the original article if you are interested.
This only makes sense as Colorado has long been known for its hot springs with mystical healing powers. What is interesting is Senator Salazar going out on a limb, as this by far his most quixotic journey yet as he searches for a cure to our nations ailing health care system. God speed.
Here is were you can go to confirm your seat at the table with Salazar and Daschle.
Mitch McConnell was going for cheap political points and Ken Salazar answered him very well quietly including that McConnell's proposal was a "phantom solution." Kudos to Senator Salazar for being the responsible adult where his doing so will be used against him.
As I work my way up the food chain of our Democratic officials I am more and more impressed. I always wondered how Senator Salazar did so well as a politician because at the mass-media level he is good but nothing spectacular. But one on one he is exceptional. One of the best I have ever met. Both in terms of his grasp of the issues and how he comes across.
To me one of the signatures of a smart self-assured person is their willingness to ask questions on subjects that they are supposed to know. We spent the first 5+ minutes with him asking me about the blog-o-sphere. He clearly understands that it now matters a lot. But he also clearly has not been visiting (and we all have such great insight available for him). Very curious, very aware that it matters, and very insightful questions digging in. I would not want to be questioned by him if I had something to hide.
As the field has narrowed for the top job, the next question becomes: Who will be the respective nominees for Vice President?
There was some talk a year ago that Colorado Sen. Ken Salazar could be a potential running mate, but that talk seems to have cooled. According to the Washington Post blog "The Fix", Salazar is not on the early list (click below for that list):
Newsweek's Howard Fineman includes Colorado Sen. Ken Salazar on the list of potential Vice President candidates for Hillary Clinton:
If Hispanics are crucial (and they are), and if the Southwest is crucial (and it is), then Hillary could turn to the Colorado senator-especially since his state, which went for Bush, is likely to be another crucial Electoral College battleground. Salazar's Hispanic background is a plus in the region. A lawyer and former state attorney general, he is well-liked but has little foreign-policy experience. On the other hand, Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld gave experience a bad name. He has Clinton operational ties, too: Hillary's advertising guru, Mandy Grunwald, also works for Salazar.
Senator Ken Salazar is reportedly set to endorse Betsy Markey in CD-4 as she attempts to beat out Angie Paccione and Eric Eidsness in a Democratic primary.
U.S. senators traditionally don't pick favorites in contested primary races but to no one's surprise Ken Salazar is making an exception.
Salazar on Wednesday will officially endorse his former staffer, Betsy Markey, one of three Democrats running for Congress in 2008 in the 4th Congressional District.
Markey served as Salazar's regional director in the 4th District after the Denver Democrat was elected to the Senate in 2004. She resigned in May to run for Congress.
Salazar's endorsement is a huge lift to a thus-far lagging campaign for Markey, who raised a paltry $36,000 in Q2 and badly needs something like this to give her candidacy some momentum.
The first head-to-head debate in Colorado's 2010 U.S. Senate race will have to wait.
For a time on Friday, it looked as if Sen. Ken Salazar, D-Denver, and Rep. Tom Tancredo, R-Littleton, were destined to square off on a nationally-televised, Sunday morning talk show.
But alas, Salazar will be on CBS News' "Face the Nation" broadcast and Tancredo will not.
Before the joint appearance fell through, the thought of a head-to-head appearance made Tancredo and his staff enthusiastic to say the least.
"He thinks it's a great match-up," Tancredo spokesman Carlos Espinosa said. "I think it's interesting how these two, I'd say they are the bookends for the immigration issue. You've got Tom on one end and the Senator on the other. This is a good match-up for a race we may see in the future... This may be the first of many debates for a potential match-up down the road."
Yes, Tancredo currently is making a long-shot run for president. But there's at least a slim chance he won't win. A future run for the U.S. Senate appears to be his back-up plan. Espinosa describes a Tancredo-Salazar contest as the congressman's dream match-up...
...Salazar spokesman Cody Wertz had no comment on Tancredo or a potential 2010 match-up. Pollster Floyd Ciruli said Tancredo would be "the candidate Salazar would most look forward to running against," since Tancredo is so polarizing.
If the election were today, Tancredo would probably get his brains kicked in by Salazar in a matchup for U.S. Senate. But if he does well enough in his bid for President and significantly raises his profile, who knows?
