We're playing a little bit of catch-up in providing our analysis of the various different outcomes from Tuesday's Primary. Spurred on by a good Politico story today from David Catanese, here's our thoughts on how and why Sen. Michael Bennet defeated Andrew Romanoff in Tuesday's Democratic Primary...
Make your predictions below on who you think will win the big statewide Primary races. Get them in before 7:00 tonight to make sure you get full bragging rights for a correct answer, and we'll think up some sort of prize for the person who makes the most correct predictions.
PREDICTIONS
U.S. Senate (Democrats)
U.S. Senate (Republicans)
Governor (Republicans)
Treasurer (Republicans)
Tiebraker: The total number of votes cast in the Republican Primary for Treasurer.
Make sure to put your predictions in a numerical, percentages format. For example: Walker Stapleton over J.J. Ament, 54-46
We thought we'd again start a new thread with this information (click for the earlier post), now that we've got the latest (and last) update from the Secretary of State's office on ballot returns. Here are the ballot return numbers as of 3:00 p.m. today:
*Party/ Ballots Returned Thus Far/ Total Active Voters/ Percent Returned Democrats: 310,671/ 817,458/ 38%
Republicans: 358,953/ 855,667/ 42%
As we wrote earlier, these numbers have already smashed previous turnout figures for a Primary Election in Colorado, and they don't include turnout for El Paso and Weld Counties (which were not all-mail ballot counties). This could very well mean that Michael Bennet and Jane Norton will be the winners of their respective primaries because of their name ID advantage. We'd say the same thing for Scott McInnis in the Governor's race, but we have a feeling the undervote in that one will be huge.
UPDATE #2: More interesting voter trends from Magellan Strategies, a Republican polling and consulting firm, show that at least 28% of Republicans and 32.5% of Democrats that have voted thus far are casting a ballot for the first time in a Primary Election.
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UPDATE: In 1998, Colorado saw primaries on both the Democratic and Republican sides, for both U.S. Senate and Governor. Turnout in the 1998 Primary was 25.5% for Republicans and 19.7% for Democrats, so we are well into record territory here.
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Kudos to the Colorado Secretary of State's office, which is going above and beyond the call of duty in reporting ballot returns early today. The numbers below are as of Noon, while a second report will come out after 3:00 p.m.
*Party/ Ballots Returned Thus Far/ Total Active Voters/ Percent Returned Democrats: 298,062/ 817,458/ 36%
Republicans: 340,788/ 855,667/ 40%
Considering that El Paso and Weld Counties are two of those that are not conducting all-mail balloting in Colorado, it's safe to say that these numbers are going to rise significantly. This is really good news for the campaigns of Sen. Michael Bennet, Jane Norton, and Scott McInnis, because (as we've said repeatedly) the more well-known candidates almost always benefit from higher than normal turnout. Both Democrats and Republicans are voting in record numbers, easily surpassing turnout from any of the three previous Primary races.
The one caveat here is on the Republican side, where there have been rumblings for weeks of Republicans undervoting on their ballots. So while it's true that a record number of Republicans are returning their ballot, it may not be true that a record number of people are actually voting in the Senate or Governor Primary. We'd say it's more likely that people are undervoting the Governor's race than the Senate race, but the point here is that these returns may not mean as much for McInnis as they will for Bennet.
Richard Coolidge, the Public Information Officer for the SOS Office, also included these handy tips with today's report:
The question is "When" not "If" provisional ballots are counted. Primary night results are only an initial tabulation. The OFFICIAL count is due 13 days after the primary when the canvass board meets and reviews the votes. This 13 days allows time to verify provisional ballots and time for overseas military ballots to arrive (8-day extension for these ballots).
When will results be posted? Clerks are allowed to process ballots 15 days before the election. For the most part, counties will have most ballots cast up until Monday-ish processed and ready for tabulation after 7:00pm tonight. The rest of the results will be forthcoming. Obviously, your patience waiting for these results is most appreciated.
POLS NOTE: In order to make comments easier to read and understand, we decided to create a new post for these returns, rather than just updating the original post.
Below are the turnout numbers reported a little after 3:00 p.m. today by the SOS. Remember that there is some lag time in the reporting process (in other words, there are more ballots returned than what is listed below, but what is listed below is what the various County Clerks reported to the SOS today):
*Party/ Ballots Returned Thus Far/ Total Active Voters/ Percent Returned Democrats: 279,462/ 817,458/ 34%
Republicans: 314,264/ 855,667/ 37%
Richard Coolidge of the Secretary of State's office also included this note in today's ballot update:
Colorado County clerks may begin processing (not tabulating) ballots 15 days before the election. All 64 counties should have a good sample of mail ballots tabulated after 7:00pm tomorrow evening. Remember, 46 counties are voting exclusively by mail, so ballots received Tuesday may not be included in that original release of results. The remaining 18 counties will still have mail results, but will also need to factor in votes cast at precinct polling places (like El Paso, Pitkin, Las Animas, etc) or at vote centers (like Weld, Park, Archuleta, etc).
Our read on these numbers? The Michael Bennet campaign is going to be sweating it out tomorrow, hoping to see turnout reach levels cross well into the 300,000 level (the higher the turnout above 300,000, the better the odds that Bennet wins).
As for the GOP turnout, we're curious to see how big the undervote might be. Turnout is pretty high already considering the amount of grumbling from Republicans over their (lack of) great choices for Governor, and to a lesser extent, U.S. Senate, but if most of the returned ballots are casting a vote in the race for Governor and Senate, this benefits Scott McInnis and Jane Norton in their respective races.
New polling out this morning from Public Policy Polling has some interesting numbers across the board in the three top-ticket Primaries in Colorado:
U.S. Senate (Democrats) Michael Bennet: 49%
Andrew Romanoff: 43%
Undecided: 9%
U.S. Senate (Republicans) Jane Norton: 45%
Ken Buck: 43%
Undecided: 12%
Governor (Republicans) Scott McInnis: 41%
Dan Maes: 40%
Undecided: 19%
It looks like all of these races are going to come down to the turnout numbers, with higher turnout favoring Bennet, Norton and McInnis (because these three have the highest name ID in their respective races). The Secretary of State's office will release the latest turnout figures after 3:00 p.m. today, so check back here for that update.
We're getting credible word of some interesting last-minute developments ahead of Tuesday's primary. We want to be clear that this is preliminary, and (of course) dependent on what happens in the election. But it is based on good authority from high-level GOP sources.
There is some thinking in GOP circles that gubernatorial candidate Scott McInnis could indeed be persuaded to exit the race following a victory on Tuesday--if he has a say in his successor, and if he were provided with a 'suitable' career landing. If that happens, the story we've heard is that Jane Norton would very much like to be selected as a replacement gubernatorial candidate.
Sources are clear that this does not mean Norton is anticipating a loss in her Senate primary against Ken Buck. What we're talking about here is strictly a contingency plan, but one that Norton is sufficiently interested in pursuing to have started putting out feelers. As you know, of course, polls do show Buck with an enduring lead after weeks of hard-nosed campaigning.
What's truly ironic about this situation is the person emerging as her chief competitor for the selection, Norton campaign manager Josh Penry, remains very much interested by all accounts. Obviously, the vacancy committee who would appoint either of them--itself dependent on a decision from McInnis that others insist he will never make if he wins the primary--remains the biggest "if" in a situation with several unknowns.
A poll follows--file all of this in the same place you've been putting those "Romanoff for Mayor" rumors (but in the "much more likely" category) and we'll see what happens Tuesday.
We were critical of the latest ad from Democrat Andrew Romanoff, called "Greed," for saying that Sen. Michael Bennet "pushed companies into bankruptcy and looted a billion dollars." While there are certainly votes and other issues that Romanoff could use to criticize Bennet, this ad went way beyond just negative campaigning because it outright lied in accusing Bennet of stealing from companies.
Well, the three biggest Denver news networks have all come out with their "Truth Test" or "Fact Checks" or whatever other clever name they have for checking the accuracy of campaign ads. The result: 3 out of 3 say the main message and components of the "Greed" ad are false.
Republican Senate candidate Ken Buck was caught on video at a recent event explaining his position on abortion, which is about as far right as you can go:
While this position may help Buck in a primary, it is definitely going to be a handicap in a General Election. Colorado voters are largely pro-choice, and most who are pro-life are much more moderate on the issue (which is why the Personhood Amendment was absolutely crushed at the ballot in 2008).
