As always, please vote based on what you think will happen, not on who you would vote for or which candidate you support personally. Think of it this way: If you had to bet the deed to your house, who would you pick?
(What plays well in an election year? How about: I got credit card companies to not raise your interest rates? - promoted by Colorado Pols)
UPDATE: Today Discover has pledged not to raise rates for its cardholders. CNN gives more great pub to Markey.
We've said before that Democratic Rep. Betsy Markey will be tough to beat in 2010 even though she represents a Republican-leaning district. The main reason: She's been very smart about how she votes and what issues she tackles publicly.
Case in point is Markey taking on credit card companies for raising rates significantly before reform legislation takes effect next year. Markey appeared on CNN last night to discuss the issue, and don't think this kind of thing doesn't play very well among average voters -- no matter which political party they belong to.
As we've done in other election years, we regularly poll our readers on various races to gauge changing perceptions. These obviously aren't scientific polls, but they do help to show how the perception of various candidates are changing. We'll conduct these polls each month and then show the results to see how the winds are shifting.
As always, please vote based on what you think will happen, not on who you would vote for or which candidate you support personally. Think of it this way: If you had to bet the deed to your house, who would you pick?
Thus far this is the only congressional race that appears to be headed toward a competitive race, so we won't poll on other races unless or until a stronger race appears.
Democratic Rep. Betsy Markey announced today that her re-election campaign raised more than $340,000 in Q1, which the campaign says is the most ever raised by a freshman Representative in Colorado history. Democratic Rep. Ed Perlmutter was the previous record-holder, raising $263,900 in Q1 2007.
On Saturday, Democratic activists from around the state got together for the Colorado stop on the Netroots Nation Salon Series: Netroots Nation in Your Neighborhood. Among the panelists at the gathering (which was sponsored by local progressive organizations like AM 760, Progress Now, and Square State) was Colorado AFL-CIO director Mike Cerbo, who let everyone present know how one of the newest members of the Colorado Democratic Congressional delegation feels about the contentious Employee Free Choice Act.
During our last panel, Governing as Progressives and Taking Over the Democratic Party, the discussion went to The Employee Free Choice Act ... CO AFL-CIO director Mike Cerbo said:
Betsy Markey, one of the people that has probably more incentive than any of the others to sit there and hand wring and hide in the weeds about this stood up front and said 'I'm going to cosponsor. I believe in it.' [rsb emphasis]
In the comments of that diary, Rep. Jared Polis--fresh off his keynote address to the Netroots Nation in Your Neighborhood crowd--chimed in with his own position on the EFCA:
I strongly support the right to organize and plan on supporting the Employee Free Choice Act both in my Committee (Education and Labor) and on the House floor.
We have to make sure that our recovery lifts all boats, and the ability to organize is, now more than ever, critical for working families.
The fact that Polis is supporting this bill should come as no surprise (though the vociferous nature of business-minded Polis' endorsement does, perhaps, induce a mild eyebrow raise.) Dems in safe Democratic districts should have no trouble voting yes, but without their support, there's no way frosh Congresswoman Betsy Markey would be able to do so as well.
The direction of this bill in the House is clearly heading toward approval--it's when the bill goes to the Senate, where Mark Udall and Michael Bennet must decide their positions on it, that the future of the EFCA becomes significantly murkier.
The NRCC has apparently decided to pull out of CD-4, leaving Rep. Marilyn Musgrave to fight Democrat Betsy Markey on her own.
Both the DCCC and the NRCC have done extensive polling recently, and from what we understand, the numbers aren't good for Musgrave. So today the NRCC sent a letter to local television stations pulling their advertising buy after this week. In other words, the NRCC is going dark for the last week or so of the election.
Could this finally be the year that Musgrave runs out of her game-winning drives? It's beginning to look that way.
Put aside, for a moment, whatever you think of the race in CD-4 between Rep. Marilyn Musgrave and Democratic challenger Betsy Markey. The ads being produced this year by the organization "Vote Vets" are some of the best political spots on television (which isn't all that difficult considering the crap we've seen in Colorado from both sides, but nevertheless...)
Take a look at "Vote Vets" most recent ad in Colorado:
Those of you with better memories than ours may remember better, but if we're not mistaken this is the furthest behind Republican Rep. Marilyn Musgrave has ever been heading into an election. As Roll Call reports:
Democrats descended on Denver this week for their nominating convention as a way of signaling their commitment to making the Centennial State - and the Mountain West as a whole - competitive in the presidential race. The poll done for Roll Call seemed to bear that out, as McCain led Obama by just 2 points, 48 percent to 46 percent.
Meanwhile, Musgrave trailed Democratic challenger Betsy Markey 50 percent to 43 percent in the poll conducted by SurveyUSA for Roll Call [Pols emphasis]. Seven percent remained undecided. In an equally troubling sign for Musgrave, 51 percent of respondents said they had an unfavorable view of the three-term Congresswoman, while 31 percent viewed her favorably.
The poll of 618 likely voters was taken Aug. 22-24. It had a 4-point margin of error.
The survey found that Markey had a big lead among female voters, 53 percent to 38 percent. The two women were essentially tied among male voters.
More importantly, Markey had a huge lead in two voter groups that will be essential in deciding the election: independents and moderates. She led by 30 points among independent voters, 59 percent to 29 percent, and by 41 points among self-described moderates, 67 percent to 26 percent. Musgrave will have to close the gap in those two groups in order to have a chance at making the race competitive heading into Election Day.
Democrat Betsy Markey, who is challenging incumbent Rep. Marilyn Musgrave in CD-4, is featured prominently in an article in today's New York Times:
The fierce tactical positioning of candidates here and elsewhere - some call it pandering and waffling - is producing a convergence of sorts around the idea that more is better, that an expansion of energy production from all sources and places will somehow fix things, lower prices and restore stability to the economy.
"It's a very fine line to walk," said Betsy Markey, a Democrat who is challenging Representative Marilyn Musgrave, a Republican, here in the Fourth District.
Ms. Markey opposes drilling for oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, for example; Ms. Musgrave heads there this week to decide for herself. Both candidates support expansion of renewable energy like wind, but Ms. Markey says that Ms. Musgrave's long record on the issue - voting against renewable energy standards in Congress as recently as last August and against tax credits for the wind industry this year - tells a different story.
Markey also is running her first TV ad of the campaign (after the jump):
Seen and heard at last weekend's Republican State Convention (we meant to post this on Monday, but forgot)...
Republicans feel that the most likely legislative seat to be picked up in November is the one held by Rep. Wes McKinley. Republicans recruited a very popular Hispanic County Commissioner, Ken Torres, to challenge McKinley. It also doesn't help McKinley that an odd Colorado Ethics Watch report called him one of Colorado's Most Corrupt Public Officials, even though his only crime was some minor campaign finance reporting errors.
State Sen. Shawn Mitchell has been busy building a team to propel him into the legislative leadership ranks, but he may have overlooked his own vulnerability. Mitchell helped recruit a strong challenger against Sen. Brandon Shaffer and solid candidates for the open seats of Sue Windels and Stephanie Takis , as well as a challenger to Rep. Dianne Primavera.
But the GOP's own internal polls have Mitchell trailing against his Democratic opponent, Joe Whitcomb. Despite Mitchell's years of service in the legislature, his name ID is not strong, and the fact that he trails this early in the race has Republicans bracing for a Mitchell loss.
Republicans are confident of taking back SD-19 now that Windels is term-limited. They are privately touting an audit of State Board of Education expenses requested by Joint Budget Committee member, Sen. Steve Johnson, as a silver bullet in this race (Democratic candidate Evie Hudak is a current BOE member).
Congresswoman Marilyn Musgrave was a dead woman walking on Saturday. Supporters of Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck, as well as Rep. Cory Gardner, were telling delegates that should Musgrave lose to Democrat Betsy Markey this November, they will both immediately announce their candidacies. Both were privately telling delegates that Musgrave is a lost cause.
(We can't let Bob Schaffer get all the press here - promoted by DavidThi808)
Despite her recent claims of bipartisanship, Marilyn Musgrave voted yesterday with the President and just a sliver of Congressional Republicans to strip needed Medicaid funds from the state of Colorado and the rest of the country. All 50 of the nation's governors - Republicans and Democrats - as well as state Medicaid directors and 349 members of the U.S. House of Representatives supported the Medicaid Safety Net Act of 2008 (HR 5613), which prevents the federal government from shirking its responsibility to contribute to Medicaid funding and instead pass those costs on to the states.
Ok, I do tend to err on the optimistic side - but I was right on Jim Webb and Jon Tester. I think Betsy is going to win CD-4, and win by 3 points or more. She's WOW.
I had lunch with Betsy today and the biggest impression I got from her is she's nice. Yes she's professional, knowledgeable, competent, and thoughtful. Yes she has strong well thought out policy positions. But more than all of that, she's a very nice person.
Nice is a killer advantage for a candidate, especially a legislative one. And compared to Marilyn Musgrave, The Evil One, it is a gigantic difference. This gives her a couple of points easy. It also will make it a lot harder for MM to smear her as people will find any garbage very difficult to believe.
Politico reports on the financial mess that continues to plague the NRCC:
The accounting scandal now haunting the National Republican Congressional Committee was preceded by a series of decisions over the past decade to relax internal financial controls at the committee, according to numerous Republican sources familiar with the NRCC's operations during those years.
Under Virginia Rep. Tom Davis and New York Rep. Thomas Reynolds, who chaired the committee from 1999 until the end of 2006, the NRCC waived rules requiring the executive committee - made up of elected leaders and rank-and-file Republican lawmakers - to sign off on expenditures exceeding $10,000, merged the various department budgets into a single account and rolled back a prohibition on committee staff earning an income from outside companies.
These changes gave committee staffers more freedom to spend money quickly and react to a shifting political landscape during heated campaign battles, and House Republicans were able to claim larger majorities after the 2000, 2002 and 2004 elections.
But the actions also may have contributed to a perceived lack of oversight within the NRCC, especially over financial records, a failure that outside observers blame for an accounting scandal that could go much deeper than the allegedly forged audit a former treasurer sent to the committee's principal lender in January. NRCC officials contacted the FBI soon after discovering that the former employee, Christopher J. Ward, had submitted what they believe to be a fake internal audit to Wachovia as part of a loan application by the committee.
The Colorado angle to all of this is how the NRCC's financial woes end up hurting Republican Rep. Marilyn Musgrave. Musgrave's re-election bids were bailed out in 2006 and 2004 by an infusion of NRCC cash, but the longer this scandal goes and the more it impacts fundraising, the more that Musgrave will be forced to rely on her own money means. The NRCC currently has about $6.4 million, compared to $35.5 million for the DCCC.
Fortunately for her, Musgrave is raising plenty of coin on her own. But if challenger Betsy Markey can close the fundraising gap, Musgrave may be on her own while Markey will likely have support from the DCCC. All of this bodes well for Markey...provided that she can raise enough money on her own in order to make the target list.
Just one week after Democrat Angie Paccioneended her campaign for congress in CD-4, former Republican Reform Party candidate turned Democrat Eric Eidsness pulled his well-traveled hat out of the ring.
Eric Eidsness abandoned his bid for Northern Colorado's Democratic congressional nomination, apparently clearing the way for Betsy Markey to challenge Republican incumbent Marilyn Musgrave next November.
"The hand writing is on the wall and I see it is not my time to be elected to national office to represent (Colorado's 4th Congressional District)," Eidsness said in a prepared statement. "While my populist message appeals to a broad range of voters, particularly in the more rural areas, I do not have the support I will need here in Larimer County to win the Democratic nomination."
You can file that quote away in the "No Shit" department. Eidsness pulled a hefty 11% of the vote in 2006 as a Reform Party candidate - one of the best third party showings in years - but he was going to have a hell of a time getting on the ballot as a Democrat because he switches parties more often than Paris Hilton.
The Democratic nomination seems secure for Betsy Markey...for now. But if Markey reports another weak quarter of fundraising, the door may be open for another Democrat to enter.
Democrat Angie Paccione has just announced that she will no longer be a candidate for congress in CD-4, which should essentially guarantee the nomination for Betsy Markey. Paccione is giving up her campaign in order to work full-time for an organization called Pathways to Leadership.
This is a huge development, because Paccione would have been a heavy favorite to win the Democratic nomination next August; her fundraising and name ID gave her a significant advantage over Markey.
Click below for the full press release from Paccione.
So here's our shot at the top 10 House races in the country today. The contest ranked number one is the most likely to switch parties in 2008. The comments section awaits your kudos and criticisms.
To the Line!
10. Colorado's 4th District (Currently R): Every election we look at the strong Republican performance of this district and conclude that there is no way Rep. Marilyn Musgrave can lose the seat. And every election she barely manages to win. This time we won't be fooled. Democrats are heavily targeting this race and Musgrave has proven that she underperforms in this eastern Colorado seat. Angie Paccione, the Democrat who lost to Musgrave by less than 6,000 votes in 2006, is back for another race but faces a serious primary challenge from Betsy Markey, a former aide to Sen. Ken Salazar (D-Colo.) Salazar has already endorsed Markey, which could well give her a leg up in the primary. This race shouldn't be close given the district's demographics but it will be.
The race in CD-4 will probably be close again, but it's doubtful that it will be as narrowly-decided as it was when Musgrave edged Paccione last fall. 2006 was probably the Democrats' best chance to win this seat.
Musgrave has worked hard to change her image after national Republicans finally soured on spending so much money to defend a seat that should be safely Republican. There are still 57,000 more registered Republicans in CD-4 than Democrats, and a softer, more moderate Musgrave is going to be a lot tougher to knock off than she was this time last year. A rational Republican should never lose in this Republican district, and there's no denying that Musgrave has gotten good press lately for her change of face.
In 2006 it looked like Democrats had a great chance to pull the upset here. That's just not the case anymore, especially when Democrats are going to spend a lot of money just trying to get through a primary.
Senator Ken Salazar is reportedly set to endorse Betsy Markey in CD-4 as she attempts to beat out Angie Paccione and Eric Eidsness in a Democratic primary.
U.S. senators traditionally don't pick favorites in contested primary races but to no one's surprise Ken Salazar is making an exception.
Salazar on Wednesday will officially endorse his former staffer, Betsy Markey, one of three Democrats running for Congress in 2008 in the 4th Congressional District.
Markey served as Salazar's regional director in the 4th District after the Denver Democrat was elected to the Senate in 2004. She resigned in May to run for Congress.
Salazar's endorsement is a huge lift to a thus-far lagging campaign for Markey, who raised a paltry $36,000 in Q2 and badly needs something like this to give her candidacy some momentum.
