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NRSC Colorado Pullout Confirmed

by: Colorado Pols

Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 09:31:39 AM MDT

We told you two days ago that the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) would shortly exit the Colorado Senate race, citing dwindling cash reserves, candidate Bob Schaffer's plummeting poll numbers, and unexpectedly strong threats to incumbent GOP Senators around the country. The late-game pullout of national party support is a bellwether recognition that a race is considered unwinnable, and scarce resources are better used elsewhere.

Confirmed this morning by Atlantic Online:

Republican sources in Colorado and Washington say that the National Republican Senatorial Committee plans to pull out of the state by next week, an acknowledgment that its independent expenditure resources would be better spent on defense elsewhere.
Earlier this week, the NRSC withdrew its advertising from the Louisiana Senate race.
The NRSC is still helping Roger Wicker in Mississippi and incumbents Norm Coleman in Minnesota, John Sununu in New Hampshire.
AN NRSC spokesperson said that advertising decisions are made on a week-to-week basis and declined to comment further...

Per usual you heard it here first, it's a done deal--and by the GOP's own reckoning, so is the Colorado Senate race.

UPDATE: The Atlantic's Marc Ambinder says the NRSC is disputing his report:

"We have seen the race in Louisiana close dramatically over the past week so the strategy for this race is being re-evaluated," NRSC communications director Rebecca Fisher said. "According to publicly available information we have placed a buy for next week."
Fisher also disputes my report this morning that the NRSC plans to drawn down its advertising in Colorado, although other GOP officials insist that Republican Bob Schaffer's campaign is planning to make do without NRSC help. [Pols emphasis]

Bottom line: Like we said earlier this week, the NRSC understands the stigma associated with its decisions, and won't confirm any moves of this kind until they are no longer able to conceal them. Barring some change of circumstances on the ground we have yet to see evidence of, the NRSC will pull out of Colorado as previously reported.

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NRSC Colorado Pullout Confirmed | 41 comments

But he got to use his cheat sheet

so Bob's a ~~whiner~~ winner :)

My recommendations in the 2010 primary?

by: DavidThi808 @ Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 10:36:57 AM CDT

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Something tells me Dick didn't prepare an index card for this...

Just a hunch.

Did you see also how he denied that KMGH 7News told him about the "no notes" rule? Hmmm, what are the odds 7News has a signed letter from him the same way they do from Udall?

by: bmenezes @ Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 11:42:22 AM CDT

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I bet Schaffer ignored the letter

didn't sign it or send it back, then claimed he never saw it. I'd put money on it.

" Is there a way to delete your own comments? " bjwilson83

by: Fidel's dirt nap @ Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 12:14:14 PM CDT

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And...

another one bites the dust. The candidates that the NRSC are abandoning are starting to add up.

"The only way you could be worse is if you were Wade Norris." Ralphie

by: Middle of the Road @ Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 10:38:19 AM CDT

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Good riddance!

This is fantastic news. After their horribly negative and lying ads against Udall, they should pull out. But don't be complacent - VOTE UDALL!

by: conniej @ Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 10:39:27 AM CDT

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What a waste of money

I hope they're happy having wasted $14,000,000 of their donors' money.

We all know who to blame for this though, don't we? Schaffer and Wadhams. Way to let your people down by running one of the shoddiest campaigns in Colorado history.

"I'll take incompetence over a business model incentivised to kill me any day." -- DtR(H)

by: redstateblues @ Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 11:01:40 AM CDT

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True, it was a shoddy campaign

But Schaffer isn't a very likable candidate, either. Churlish, childish, bullying behavior doesn't win many fans. And that goes for both Schaffer and Wadhams.

by: Progressive Promoter @ Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 11:30:55 AM CDT

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Traits popular with many Republicans, howeve!

"Collective fear stimulates herd instinct and tends to produce ferocity toward those who are not regarded as members of the herd." -Bertrand Russell

by: parsingreality @ Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 14:07:10 PM CDT

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Let's see the numbers before we declare a winner...

....in the worst-run political race in Colorado history. Conservative Carpetbagger Bob Schaffer can take the trophy if he gets his ass sufficiently kicked.

"Lie--an abomination before the Lord and an ever present help in time of trouble." Mark Twain

by: SSG_Dan @ Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 11:59:43 AM CDT

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I tend to agree with Pols though

NRSC pullout = likely Udall win.

"I'll take incompetence over a business model incentivised to kill me any day." -- DtR(H)

by: redstateblues @ Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 12:01:31 PM CDT

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Could also be good news for Obama

Hard to imagine too many people splitting the ticket between Udall (excuse me, I meant Boulderliberaludall) and McCain.

by: BlueCat @ Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 12:11:33 PM CDT

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What about in '04?

People voted a split ticket for Salazar and Bush.

"I'll take incompetence over a business model incentivised to kill me any day." -- DtR(H)

by: redstateblues @ Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 12:13:02 PM CDT

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That made sense

Salazar was considered very moderate, if not conservative , for a Dem and was very popular among many Republicans as well as centrist indies. He wasn't seen as being liberal.

Udall is a very different candidate. Hard to imagine someone voting for Udall, clearly perceived as a liberal Dem, and also supporting McCain over Obama.

In other words, the distance between potential Udall and McCain voters in 2008 is much greater than the distance between potential Salazar and Bush voters was in 2004.

by: BlueCat @ Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 21:35:57 PM CDT

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I Know

Some people splitting the other way. Voting for Obama and Schaffer due to not wanting one party to have all the marbles. I think it silly given that his issue is health care and I'm sure Schaffer is against any fix so far proposed. He's probably against McCain's plan too.

Sometimes I think that we're deluding ourselves if we think that elections are in any way about a reasoned choice. It's all just... random and popularity.

Matthew

by: Precinct854 @ Sat Oct 18, 2008 at 16:32:49 PM CDT

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a reasoned choice

I've talked with a few people who say they're voting for McCain and Udall, because both embody the spirit of the independent West. I bet that's a more likely split than Obama/Schaffer.

And when it comes to a very narrow set of issues and selective reading of the candidates' character (but then, aren't all such readings somewhat selective?), makes a certain kind of sense.

by: RedGreen @ Sat Oct 18, 2008 at 20:05:58 PM CDT

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Hmmm...

I'd still say that Beauprez's Gubernatoral race would take the prize as worst run campaign in state history.

Schaffer's campaign to date would be a close second...

"But when I see a 9-11 victim family on television, or whatever, I'm just like, 'Oh, shut up!' I'm so sick of them because they're always complaining." Glenn Beck

by: Arvadonian @ Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 12:18:57 PM CDT

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I'll retract what I said and agree with you

...for now. Final numbers might tip the title towards Schaffer/Wadhams.

"I'll take incompetence over a business model incentivised to kill me any day." -- DtR(H)

by: redstateblues @ Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 12:22:57 PM CDT

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I gotta go with Arvadonian

The Beauprez campaign was probably the worst campaign since those of Ethelred the Unready.

by: bob ewegen @ Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 12:35:33 PM CDT

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Don't get too cocky about this one

Bob still has 20 days to beat Bob for the basement. As we have seen anything can happen although Bob the Schaffer would have to go pretty darn low to beat out Bob the Beauprez. Maybe have frogs come out of his mouth or something.

Beauprez picked a real loser in Rowland for lieutenant governor who also appealed to the fundie base but turned off moderates so McCain might be in the running if you include national campaigns in Colorado. Probably the defining losing move to pick Palin.

by: Gilpin Guy @ Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 16:08:49 PM CDT

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Beauprez?

I'm sorry, but even Schaffer has run a better campaign than good ol' Bob. At least Schaffer still polls within single digits sometimes...

by: adam.kretz @ Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 18:58:20 PM CDT

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And there is so far no campaign ad featuring Schaffer and the wrong end of a horse side by side.

by: BlueCat @ Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 21:37:47 PM CDT

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An instant classic in campaign advertising

for all the wrong reasons.

I'd forgotten that icon image of incompetence.

It gets harder and harder to believe that Republicans are the smartest guys in the room.

by: Gilpin Guy @ Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 21:56:42 PM CDT

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I can't wait.

During the local news I saw a brand new ad taking the "I'm just kidding" part from Udall's Hide commercial and using it over and over. The overall tone is laughable. I'd post, but it's not on their website yet.

"Don't go all "Ralphie" on me now: Just let it go." - Steve Harvey

by: droll @ Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 12:37:18 PM CDT

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Was it the NRSC?

Or a 527? Maybe U.S. Chamber?

"I'll take incompetence over a business model incentivised to kill me any day." -- DtR(H)

by: redstateblues @ Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 12:43:17 PM CDT

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Definitely NRSC.

I was expecting someone else, so I was paying extra attention (usually have to see an ad twice, once to be introduced, once to remember to pay attention to the maker).

"Don't go all "Ralphie" on me now: Just let it go." - Steve Harvey

by: droll @ Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 12:52:11 PM CDT

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Yep...

...I saw that one this morning while brushing my teeth. At first I thought it was a (Boulderliberal) Udall one until I watched a liitle closer.

Guess that is the NRSC's parting shot.

by: divad @ Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 12:55:47 PM CDT

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That's interesting

because it must mean that the decision to pull out was made sometime between after that ad was made and before yesterday when the rumor was published here.

They must have some seriously bad polling to waste the money on making a brand new ad 10-14 days before completely pulling all of their ads out of Colorado.

"I'll take incompetence over a business model incentivised to kill me any day." -- DtR(H)

by: redstateblues @ Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 12:56:51 PM CDT

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Isn't Schaffer sitting on a pile of money?

I thought I read in a different thread that Schaffer has something like a million COH. Maybe the NRSC reasoned that Schaffer can afford to pay for his own ads? I mean, if you're in triage mode, it makes sense to leave those states where the candidate is sitting on a pile of dough, right?

Never assume "shill" when "idiot" is available as an explanation. [h/t Ralphie]

by: ajb @ Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 14:21:27 PM CDT

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Sitting on a pile, yes

Schaffer reported $2,733,942.79 cash on hand as of Sept. 30. Pols speculated he's hoarding it for a run at the 4th in 2010, but he could have been leaning on outside groups to carry his advertising since August and planned to spend his own if they pulled out.

by: RedGreen @ Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 14:24:58 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Interesting point

But the NRSC and the RNC would never pull ads (and therefore money) from a race if they thought they couldn't help.

The pull-out has to do with them being in triage, for sure, but it also has to do with the state of the campaign. If it was close, they would not be doing this.

"I'll take incompetence over a business model incentivised to kill me any day." -- DtR(H)

by: redstateblues @ Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 14:29:22 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I love this.

"Maybe the NRSC reasoned that Schaffer can afford to pay for his own ads? "

Future Republicans take note: Make sure you don't raise too much money or the NRSC might pull the plug.

Just in case the NRSC goes into triage mode, you better make sure to take it easy on the fund raising, guys. You don't want to look too viable.

by: TakeBackTheHouse @ Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 14:48:19 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Here it is

But will there be new buys? We wonder if all the chatter about their intentions won't keep them on the air out of spite.

Of course, that's some expensive spite.

by: Colorado Pols @ Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 19:09:54 PM CDT

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Thank you for posting this.

Maybe instead of buying airtime they could form a coalition of especially angry Republicans. They could come to Denver and Boulder, just to glare at joggers and people going in and out of health food stores.

Same effect, much cheaper.

"Don't go all "Ralphie" on me now: Just let it go." - Steve Harvey

by: droll @ Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 20:03:50 PM CDT

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cautious optimism

the NRSC pulled out of Louisiana too, just to jump back in several days later.
http://rothenbergpoliticalrepo...

granted that was because the race is closer there than they had thought, but just one poll showing the race tightening here could bring the screaming money hoards back.

by: passerby @ Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 15:04:16 PM CDT

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Fixed that for you

could bring the screaming money whores back

by: G Pulviczek @ Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 15:07:36 PM CDT

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Whatever Happened to State Senate & House Races

Correct me if I'm wrong
but ColoradoPols used to
run lines related to the
State House & Senate Races...

Where did they go?
Is the Democrats' control over State Congress
so firm that coverage is no longer necessary?

Do grassroots politics even matter anymore or
are we all just plugged into the "big show"?

Whatever the answer, I'm disappointed not to
see more diaries related to these important races (in Colorado).

by: Olio @ Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 16:15:03 PM CDT

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I don't recall Olio ever seeing such lines.

There are 19 state senate races up and 65 House seats, so it would be quite a task to assemble such a line. The Denver Post's endorsements in the House races alone take up an entire page of the Sunday paper.

by: bob ewegen @ Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 17:16:43 PM CDT

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My Ears, My Ears!!

I've been hearing the screaming coming from State Republican HQ for the last two days. It has to be turd blossom junior. He can't believe that his friends and supporters in Washington have abandoned him. On no, Oh no. What will he do? Perhaps he'll get a real job for once in his life and figure out why so many of us Republicans who started our with him aren't voting for Schaefer or McCain this time. WAAAAAAAAA!

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH!!!!!!

by: Craig @ Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 18:16:08 PM CDT

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Even though

we got into it the other day, Craig, you are awesome.

"I'll take incompetence over a business model incentivised to kill me any day." -- DtR(H)

by: redstateblues @ Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 18:21:24 PM CDT

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Possibly a false alarm.

Turns out our hopes may be too high.
Ambinder updates:

Fisher also disputes my report this morning that the NRSC plans to drawn down its advertising in Colorado, although other GOP officials insist that Republican Bob Schaffer's campaign is planning to make do without NRSC help.

Politicker also reports: