Colorado Senate Race Now "Leans Democratic"

by: Colorado Pols

Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 09:45:21 AM MDT

With a hefty war chest and a lead in the polls, Colorado Democratic Rep. Mark Udall 's prospects of taking over the Senate seat of retiring Republican Sen. Wayne Allard appear to be brightening.

CQ Politics is changing its rating of the high-profile Colorado Senate race to reflect a slight edge for Udall, who is facing Republican former Rep. Bob Schaffer.

By shifting the rating of the Colorado Senate race to "Leans Democratic" from "No Clear Favorite," CQ Politics now considers Udall as a narrow front-runner in a highly competitive race that had been previously classified as a toss-up...

...Though CQ Politics does not base its race ratings changes primarily on polling data, it's unmistakable that Udall has moved out to a consistent lead in a series of polls, including a nine-point advantage in a Public Policy Polling survey that was conducted earlier this month.

Udall's edge can be attributed to other factors. The national political environment continues to be more problematic for the Republicans than the Democrats. In Colorado, Democrats made big gains in the 2006 election. Barack Obama at the moment is at least an even-money bet to defeat John McCain in Colorado, which in 2004 backed President Bush over Democratic nominee John Kerry by 5 percentage points. Republicans still outnumber Democrats on the voter registration rolls in Colorado, though the gap is narrowing and political independents are now more numerous than either Republicans or Democrats.