Two Polls; Two Colorados?

I hope Udall decides to start campaigning

The Senate race is like the first 6 months of WWII in Western Europe (the sitz-krieg). I'm fine with Schaffer doing nothing but would like to see Udall start campaigning.

BTW - neither has responded yet to my proposal for an online debate. Come on guys - we the voters would liek to hear something from both of you...

Tom Tancredo Interview

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by: DavidThi808 @ Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 12:16:37 PM CST

I'm fine with Udall not doing anything

Gives Schaffer more time to fund raise

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by: Haners @ Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 12:31:14 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Debate? In February?

That's about the dumbest idea I have ever heard. Nobody but you, me, and the 23 other people who troll this blog is paying any attention.

The senate race is not a battle for the minuscule percentage of people who read political blogs. It's a battle for the hundreds of thousands of people who won't even realize there's an election until the month beforehand. Everyone else has already made up their minds.

Non impediti ratione cogitationis.

"Some of the people that wanted to engage me in conversation appeared to have been the losers in the 'Are you smarter than Michele Bachmann contest?'." --Rep. Barney Frank

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by: ThillyWabbit @ Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 13:26:40 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I'm afraid I must agree.

I found no CURRENT interest from the campaign I contacted about a debate.  Their priorities are solidify the base right now, not debate the opposition.

Some men see things as they are, and ask why! ...I dream things that could be and ask,  Why Not !

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by: NEWSMAN @ Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 15:53:33 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Best time to first do it

It's a practice run as it's such a new idea. It will be very difficult to get both to agree to try it the first time when the campaign is in full roar.

That was what was so nice about the 3 amigos doing it last month - it was low risk at that point in time.

Tom Tancredo Interview

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by: DavidThi808 @ Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 15:56:37 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I can't think of anything worse

than possibly just maybe taking a stance on an issue at this point in time. Seriously David, please stop trying to inconvenience the Senate campaigns by suggesting such a ludicrous idea... nimrod.

To whom much is given much is expected.

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by: cctiger @ Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 20:23:12 PM CST

[ Parent ]

My goal is not the convenience of the campaigns

It's the edification of the voters.

Tom Tancredo Interview

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by: DavidThi808 @ Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 21:05:05 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I though your goal was to have the debate occur

The convenience of the campaign is a factor whether we like it or not.

The only reason a political campaign does any debate is that they view doing it as a plus to their campaign, OR they view not doing it as a negative.

We are so new "the not doing it" would be about as noticed as a flea biting King Kong.

So we are left with selling the upside.

All the rest is wishful thinking.

Some men see things as they are, and ask why! ...I dream things that could be and ask,  Why Not !

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by: NEWSMAN @ Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 23:11:15 PM CST

[ Parent ]

good point

Tom Tancredo Interview

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by: DavidThi808 @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 08:19:56 AM CST

[ Parent ]

it was sarcasm

To whom much is given much is expected.

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by: cctiger @ Sun Feb 17, 2008 at 12:54:12 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Yes Tigers original post was sarcasm.

My response was in reference to Davids statement.  I was thinking of the CD-5 campaigns.

We are talking about two different campaigns.

But the same applies to both.

Some men see things as they are, and ask why! ...I dream things that could be and ask,  Why Not !

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by: NEWSMAN @ Sun Feb 17, 2008 at 19:55:50 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I Hope that

if it's ultra close and comes down to super delegates between Clinton and Obama, all super delegates, especially here in Colorado, will realize who helps down ticket Dems more in Colorado and so many other states across the country.  

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by: BlueCat @ Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 12:35:33 PM CST

I always said Obama would be more difficult for McCain

Just picture the contrast of the two in a slit screen.

It works both for and against both of them.

Youth vs Experience.

or

The future vs The Past

Just depends on the voters perspective.  

Some men see things as they are, and ask why! ...I dream things that could be and ask,  Why Not !

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by: NEWSMAN @ Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 15:56:21 PM CST

By the end of the general election

We Dems will have so tied McCain to Bush that he will be lucky to carry Utah.

Tom Tancredo Interview

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by: DavidThi808 @ Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 15:58:03 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Only if

McCain picks Huck as his VP nominee!

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by: Haners @ Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 16:15:17 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Very difficult for McCain

We all know that Obama does well against old white people.

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by: shrubsrock @ Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 17:51:28 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I agree

that Obama would probably outperform Hillary in Colorado, sucks for me as a Hillary supporter haha.  I don't necessarily think that he would beat McCain, certainly no where near this margin in the general election because Republican attacks on Obama and even his stances are not very well known yet (arguable of course, let the attacks begin).  Often times when I ask people why they don't like Hillary they say "she's a bitch", so i guess that's that and that is hard to change.  Either way, I will be happy to support Obama if he wins the primary which is looking more and more likely, it would be nice to see CO vote for a Democratic presidential candidate for once (wasn't old enough to remember last time it happened ha) I sincerely believe the clinton/mccain and obama/mccain races would tighten significantly as time goes on though here in CO

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by: DUDem @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 20:56:18 PM CST

[ Parent ]

statistically insignificant

"The second poll is in regards to the Senate race, which again shows Schaffer ahead" is a little misleading - his "lead" is statistically insignificant.  It's more accurate, I think, to say they are tied.  

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by: Ilanarama @ Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 20:46:18 PM CST

Indeed ...

Both their "favorability" and "unfavorability" ratings are within the +/-4% margin of error. It is incredibly accurate to claim that this race is currently tied.

But then the poll report goes on to claim "Colorado voters see the economy as the most important issue in the upcoming election." Based on the numbers reported, this is actually not true at all since 70% of Colorado voters do NOT view the economy as the most important issue.

There are 10 kinds of people in the world. Those that understand binary and those that don't.

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by: ardy39 @ Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 22:06:52 PM CST

[ Parent ]

the economy as an issue

In fact, as a recent Washington Post poll (you may need to login to see it) found that nationwide 39% of Americans see the economy as the most important issue in the upcoming election, one could argue that relative to the rest of the US, Coloradoans see the economy as a less important issue.

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by: Ilanarama @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 12:29:46 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Read it in the context

Did you miss the part where I said how the polls showed that the race would be as close as people said it would be?

Did I say that Schaffer had it in the bag?

No.

Read the whole thing, not just the part that makes you upset because I didn't say that Udall would be the next Senator from Colorado.

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by: Haners @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 16:13:00 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Um, yeah.

Huh?  You're the one who seems to be reading in all sorts of meaning I didn't actually write.

Statistically they're tied, that's all I said.  

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by: Ilanarama @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 17:28:31 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Sorry

Maybe I'm a little overly defensive since I've been trying to discuss things with libertarians4doug or whatever his name is.  If that's the case, I apologize.

When I read your comments I felt like you thought that I was saying that Schaffer had this huge lead.  But I was just trying to say that he was ahead in the poll, which is notable since most people (here) assume  that Udall would have a huge lead.

That's all.  Sorry again though, I didn't mean to be a jerk.

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by: Haners @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 17:49:41 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Very understandable

I've given up responding to him (libertarians4doug) - there's no logic on his part.

Tom Tancredo Interview

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by: DavidThi808 @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 17:58:42 PM CST

[ Parent ]

thanks!

Yeah, I have only been reading these blogs for a few weeks now and didn't know about this history that might have made you defensive. I No biggie.  I appreciate the explanation!

I agree that their being tied is notable (although Schaffer has I think an equal amount of name recognition from his unsuccessful run 2 years back) but you're right to guess that I'm dismayed rather than pleased!

I also agree with whoever said that it's early yet.  

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by: Ilanarama @ Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 10:08:45 AM CST

[ Parent ]

No problem

And thanks for accepting my apology/explanation

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by: Haners @ Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 11:38:51 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Rasmussen polls?

Polls have been wrong all over the place this election year...
Tell me Haner, are there are recent polls...just as the caucus ones..which Rasmussen' polls proved to be accurate...

This is a real question, not a rhetorical comment, I simply do not know...

Voting Republican is legal, but it is morally wrong - David Thi808

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by: dwyer @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 00:22:43 AM CST

Let me look for more specific examples

I know that they were the most accurate in state by state polling for the 2000 and 2004 presidential cycle, which is why I put so much stock in them.  From what I've seen they are more right than not

But they have been off in some areas...like the California Republican Primary.

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by: Haners @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 16:17:03 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Name ID

The poll doesn't mention how many people even knew the names Schaffer or Udall.

Most of the people I meet have no clue who either one is, which one's a Democrat or a Republican, or that there's even a Senate race.

I think it's probably fair to state that a head-to-head poll or a favorability poll only accurately measures opinion among those who actually know something about both of the candidates, and without knowing those numbers, it's absolutely meaningless.

Non impediti ratione cogitationis.

"Some of the people that wanted to engage me in conversation appeared to have been the losers in the 'Are you smarter than Michele Bachmann contest?'." --Rep. Barney Frank

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by: ThillyWabbit @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 01:58:16 AM CST

That's why I don't understand the campaign's silence

This is a great, and inexpensive time for each to introduce themselves to the public. Udall may go to political events but he isn't going to anything that non political junkies pay attention to.

Tom Tancredo Interview

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by: DavidThi808 @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 08:22:00 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Agreed.

Udall should be out doing public events across the state every weekend.  Where is he???

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by: Jeff Bridges @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 23:20:31 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Absent a contested primary or a Republican opponent

there's nothing for the press to cover right now. The fact is that he is doing public events around the state--lots of them from what I hear. You just don't read about it in the press, because the press doesn't show up.

What he does get coverage for, and lots of it, is being a U.S. Congressman. That is why he needs to concentrate on being the best damned Congressman he can be until the press notices that there's an election, and then he can switch gears.

Bob Schaffer's not an idiot. He knows that by staying silent he can keep the heat off himself, but that he's also dampening campaign coverage of Mark Udall on two levels--the press is loath to cover a one-sided race because they will be accused of bias, and they also really like to cover conflict. Right now the only conflict due to Schaffer's silence is the fundraising battle, which is why it gets covered and nothing else does.

Non impediti ratione cogitationis.

"Some of the people that wanted to engage me in conversation appeared to have been the losers in the 'Are you smarter than Michele Bachmann contest?'." --Rep. Barney Frank

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by: ThillyWabbit @ Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 09:14:56 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Well, last Saturday...

He was here in SE Colorado.  Next weekend he's in NE Colorado....  I think his campaign manager must agree with you!

Take heart! http://codeneonblue.net

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by: NeonNurse @ Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 01:40:51 AM CST

[ Parent ]

truely you culd hav used a spellcheckers?

In fact, I just registered
www.veryliberalagitatedpissedoffpeoplewithnoorganization.com
-Laughing Boy

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by: indipol @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 10:20:49 AM CST

Give them a brake. Its a conversation, not a Legal Contract.

Some men see things as they are, and ask why! ...I dream things that could be and ask,  Why Not !

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by: NEWSMAN @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 14:00:53 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Rude

mizpellin n ungood gramma
mabee indekate tha
de riter iznt kare eboud
inkonvenyance fir de reeder

There are 10 kinds of people in the world. Those that understand binary and those that don't.

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by: ardy39 @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 15:28:17 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Not trying 2 be rude

sometimes our fingers move faster than the spellinator in our head.

If its close, I try not to criticize, because there for the grace of God (and google spell check) go I.

Some men see things as they are, and ask why! ...I dream things that could be and ask,  Why Not !

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by: NEWSMAN @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 19:09:20 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Did I mis-spell something?

Sorry

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by: Haners @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 16:18:30 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Big mistake

You mis-spelled "Udall" as "Schaffer"

Tom Tancredo Interview

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by: DavidThi808 @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 17:57:48 PM CST

[ Parent ]

LOL

Seriously, I laughed so hard I cried.

Thanks buddy

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by: Haners @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 18:21:52 PM CST

[ Parent ]