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Thu Mar 18, 2010 at 12:58:12 PM MDT
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There are two very different narratives taking shape in the wake of last Tuesday's Democratic caucuses--one is what we're seeing repeated quite a bit in national press, the story of candidate Andrew Romanoff's "stunning victory" over appointed Sen. Michael Bennet, which dovetails nicely with the story of Ken Buck's surprisingly strong finish in GOP Senate preference polls. We don't begrudge out-of-state reporters for oversimplifying what happened in Colorado this week for the purposes of fitting the whole thing into one paragraph or TV news clip, c'est la vie.
But the other narrative, which we think much more accurately reflects the process in Colorado and the state of this race generally, was reported by the Denver Post's Lynn Bartels today:
Senate candidate Andrew Romanoff declared victory for the little guy in Tuesday night's caucuses, saying "Main Street won, Wall Street lost," but among the pundit class, the results were viewed differently.
By barely cracking 50 percent among the people perceived as his base, Romanoff has a tough row to hoe to compete with Michael Bennet, his $3.7 million in the bank and deep support from the Obama administration, said political consultants Steve Welchert, a Democrat, and Katy Atkinson, a Republican...
Democrats at their caucuses had only one major contested race, the matchup between Romanoff and Bennet, who was appointed to the U.S. Senate in January 2009. Romanoff received 50 percent to Bennet's 41 percent.
"We just saw the strongest day Romanoff is likely to have," Welchert said. "The fact that the spread is 10 points evaporates when you're going to be outspent 10-to-1."
Atkinson said she had expected Romanoff to top Bennet, but by a wider margin.
With irony that few readers will miss, Romanoff's biggest defender in Bartels' story is none other than Colorado GOP chairman Dick Wadhams:
"Are you kidding me?" Wadhams said. "With all respect to my good friend Katy, Romanoff didn't even get into the race until September, and President Obama just came here and campaigned for Bennet."
We have a little bit of news to add to this parlor-game debate, which is really just a debate about impressions of impressions ahead of the parts of the primary process that matter: but impressions being the game today, you might be interested in knowing that Romanoff has dropped below the much-balleyhooed 50% threshold in the latest updated caucus preference poll results. As of 12:50PM MDT, Romanoff is sitting at 49.96%--unlike sale prices in the grocery store, a few cents off doesn't actually make this number more appealing.
Joking aside, our view hasn't changed: Romanoff didn't beat Bennet by enough of a margin to make Tuesday's caucus preference poll "conclusive" either way, and that means Romanoff did not perform well enough to meaningfully affect the same long odds he faced before the caucuses.
Steve Welchert is stating the simple facts of the matter above when he talks about Romanoff being outspent 10-1 in the coming months, and that is all that's going to matter when it comes to reaching thousands of primary voters instead of hundreds of ardent party-activist caucusgoers. The same thing holds true for Buck on the Republican side; his victory on Tuesday is certainly significant, but if he has another $40,000 quarter of fundraising, none of this will make any difference come August. As we've said over and over, the voters who will decide the primary are not all that different than the voters who will decide the general election. They're not that interested and not well-informed, so it's going to take a lot of mail, radio, and especially television to get those votes--none of which you can buy with contrived moral rectitude.
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Thu Mar 18, 2010 at 13:52:16 PM MDT
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Donny Shaw of OpenCongress takes a hard look at what Deem and Pass has been used for with an in depth look at six specific examples.
Warning--spoiler alert--Health care reform isn't in the same hemisphere.
Five of the six examples he lists were made by the GOP when they controlled both the House and the Senate. The sixth example occurred in 1990 while both chambers were controlled by Democrats.
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Thu Mar 18, 2010 at 11:49:29 AM MDT
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Back in January, we discussed the Scott McInnis gubernatorial campaign's replacement of their relatively inexperienced campaign manager with Nancy Hopper. Ex-manager George Culpepper had, as the tale was told to us, not exactly distinguished himself during his tenure, and the switch to Hopper was an attempt to reorganize and professionalize McInnis' campaign.
But as the Colorado Independent reported late yesterday, there may be more to the story of Culpepper's "departure," with a familiar twist--did he just move over a spot on The Diagram?
Colorado campaign watchdog groups are keeping a close eye on a Virginia nonprofit group with a Littleton address, which they suspect may be the smoking gun gubernatorial candidate Scott McInnis alluded to on a cryptic voicemail nearly a year ago.
Before he had even filed his paperwork to run for governor, the former six-term GOP congressman from Colorado's Western Slope left a voicemail for a potential campaign contributor referring to a 527 group set up by Republican political operative Sean Tonner.
Late last year, McInnis campaign director George Culpepper resigned, later phoning a Montana newspaper to tell them he still supported McInnis but quit to "form Western Skies, a political strategies organization based in Colorado."
Tonner, president of the conservative lobbying firm Phase Line Strategies, in 2008 registered the Western Skies Coalition, a 501(c)4 nonprofit "dedicated to promoting issues that make our nation great." Western Skies drew criticism from the left for trying to "green wash" Republican state Senate candidates in ad campaigns during that election cycle that painted them as pro-environment.
"We've got Sean Tonner on board. Sean's doing our 5-uh, or a 527," McInnis said on the infamous voicemail first posted on the Complete Colorado website in April of 2009. "We've got lots of support in the oil and gas industry."
..."[McInnis] said Sean Tonner is setting up our 527, so maybe he was talking about Western Skies," [Colorado Ethics Watch's Luis] Toro said. "And then when his former campaign manager [Culpepper] quits or leaves and goes to run that very same organization, that's a red flag, so we're certainly going to be watching this closely."
It's interesting, because when we posted the version of events surrounding Culpepper's replacement as McInnis campaign manager relayed to us, a number of Republicans jumped to Culpepper's defense (see comments), asserting that he was in fact quite competent, et cetera, contrary to our summary of Culpepper as "long on antics and short on substance." We're not so vain as to rule out the possibility of being wrong about Culpepper, particularly in light of his apparently continued employment by widely-suspected McInnis campaign assets--but that would seem to invite a few questions of its own.
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Thu Mar 18, 2010 at 09:12:03 AM MDT
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(Stop the presses! - promoted by Colorado Pols)
After 23 quoteless weeks, The Denver Post ran a direct quotation from Jane Norton today.
Norton's quoted words, which appear to have traveled from the Senate candidate's mouth into reporter Lynn Bartels' ears, in a two-way conversation, were first these:
"Coloradans are incredibly passionate because the direction of the country is wrong. The overreach of the federal government is absolutely unprecedented."
And then these:
"I am a conservative. That's who I've always been."
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Thu Mar 18, 2010 at 10:11:06 AM MDT
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(I don't know what is going on here, but it is news - promoted by Danny the Red (hair))
POLS UPDATE: More on this story from The Denver Post this morning:
The situation has escalated to the point where executive branch officials from Gov. Bill Ritter down have clammed up and Harvey's employer has hired a high-powered law firm.
Toll has been a lightning rod to some in the real estate industry since she was appointed to lead the Division of Real Estate in September 2006. She has launched a series of high-profile investigations into numerous mortgage brokers and appraisers, including participants in an alleged scam to take advantage of the state's conservation easement program...
...Division employees have not been told why Toll is on leave, whether it was voluntary or how long she would be out. They were informed that Marcia Waters, the division's director of investigations and compliance, has been named acting executive director.
-----
Erin Toll, the Director of the Division of Real Estate, is on a leave of absence effective as of yesterday, and nobody from the Governor's office on down is commenting on it.
Toll's investigation of fraud and misrepresentation in the mortgage brokerage business hasn't made her popular in the industry, and several weeks ago it was revealed one target of investigation was Sen. Ted Harvey and his American Home Funding mortgage company for sending out deceptive advertising flyers that simulated official tax documents.
As reported here in a post by Pols on 3/3/10, Harvey has attempted to introduce legislation that would remove the Director's authority to conduct investigations and take disciplinary action against mortgage brokers, and instead place it under a board system.
http://coloradopols.com/diary/...
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Thu Mar 18, 2010 at 10:08:44 AM MDT
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As college basketball kicks off its tournament today, here's a bizarre story from a Washington Post blog:
Are House Republicans rooting against the Terps in the Big Dance?
That's one possible interpretation of an odd saga that has unfolded on the House floor over the last 24 hours, culminating with a vote minutes ago on a resolution "Congratulating the 2009-2010 University of Maryland Men's Basketball Team, Greivis Vasquez, and Coach Gary Williams on an outstanding season." The measure passed, which seems normal enough, but with 132 members -- all but two of them Republicans -- voting against, which is not to normal for such routine symbolic bills.
The controversy started Tuesday evening, when House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D), who represents Prince George's Country, offered the seemingly innocuous resolution, just as the Maryland men prepare to play the University of Houston in the first round of the NCAA tournament Friday night.
Hoyer and fellow Maryland Rep. Donna Edwards (D) spoke in favor of the bill. But then California Rep. John Campbell (R) got up, and he was not happy.
While emphasizing that he didn't want "to cast any aspersions on [Maryland], nor on any Terp fans or anything like that," Campbell complained that back in October, he had offered a resolution congratulating a school in his district -- the University of California, Irvine -- for winning a men's volleyball championship, but Hoyer had "pulled that resolution from the floor."
"Therefore, those kids who won that national championship were not able to get the same recognition that apparently today these players for Maryland, who are just in the playoffs, are going to receive," Campbell said, adding: "In the past, we have done these for teams that win national championships. This is for a team that's making the playoffs, one of 65."
That's weird enough, right? But here's where it gets really strange:
According to a report in the Orange Country Register from last year, it was actually Education and Labor Chairman George Miller (D-Calif.) who had the Irvine volleyball resolution pulled, because he and Campbell were feuding over a Bay Area water recycling program as well as a broader controversy surrounding water rights in California's Central Valley. [Pols emphasis]
When the Maryland measure came up for a vote Wednesday, 129 of Campbell's fellow Republicans stood with him against the bill. Two Democrats -- Reps. Jason Altmire (Pa.) and Nick Rahall (W.Va.) -- also voted no, and six more voted present, for reasons that aren't clear. [Pols emphasis]
Well played, sirs. Or something. Now, can we get back to health care reform, or, well, anything important?
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Thu Mar 18, 2010 at 06:56:30 AM MDT
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"This City is what it is because our citizens are what they are."
--Plato
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Wed Mar 17, 2010 at 12:03:55 PM MDT
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( - promoted by Colorado Pols)
Cory Gardner will make "a major campaign announcement about the 4th District race" at a news conference at 5 p.m. today, his campaign said in a news release just out.
Gardner campaign manager Chris Hansen is mum on the details. But given that the announcement is coming the day after Gardner scored impressive results in precinct caucuses, one likely scenario is that one of his three Republican challengers will drop out and endorse the Yuma state representative.
I've reached both Tom Lucero and Dean Madere, and both say they're staying in the race. I haven't been able to connect yet with anyone in the Diggs Brown campaign. Brown finished second in the preference poll in both Larimer and Weld counties. I've heard speculation in the past couple days that some Republicans have floated the idea that Brown run for the state House District 53 seat currently occupied by Democrat Randy Fischer.
Stay tuned.
UPDATE: A knowledgeable reader says Brown lives in House District 52, not 53. That would make a bit more sense than the version of the scuttlebutt passed on to me. District 53 is a historically safe Democratic seat, whereas District 52, currently represented by Democrat John Kefalas, had a Republican representative as recently as 2006.
UPDATE 2: My hunch was correct. Brown did withdraw and endorse Gardner.
http://www.coloradoan.com/arti...
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Wed Mar 17, 2010 at 14:49:30 PM MDT
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From The Associated Press:
President Barack Obama's much-challenged health care overhaul gained traction Wednesday as a liberal lawmaker became the first to switch his opposition and Catholic nuns declared their support in an unusual public break with the bishops.
Rep. Dennis Kucinich, D-Ohio, long a supporter of Medicare-for-all, voted against the House Democratic bill in November because it did not go far enough in creating a robust government-run plan to compete with private insurance. But Kucinich said Wednesday that the bill coming before the House represents the best chance to expand coverage to the uninsured, even if it does not include a public plan...
...Meanwhile, in a rare public disagreement that will reverberate among the nation's 70 million Catholics, leaders of religious orders representing 59,000 nuns sent lawmakers a letter urging them to pass the Senate health care bill. Expected to come before the House by this weekend, the measure contains abortion funding restrictions that the bishops say don't go far enough.
"Despite false claims to the contrary, the Senate bill will not provide taxpayer funding for elective abortions," said the letter signed by 60 leaders of women's religious orders. "It will uphold longstanding conscience protections and it will make historic new investments ... in support of pregnant women. This is the real pro-life stance, and we as Catholics are all for it."
The U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops and the National Right to Life Committee have denounced the bill as a backdoor subsidy for abortion. But the nuns and the Catholic Health Association-representing some 600 hospitals-say restrictions in the Senate bill would still prevent taxpayer funding for abortion, although the legal mechanism for doing so is different from what the bishops prefer.
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Wed Mar 17, 2010 at 11:55:13 AM MDT
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Democratic Rep. Sue Schafer (that's her on the left) appears to be the vote that may kill the Payday Lending reform bill we have written about repeatedly in this space (ever since Payday Lenders started spamming us).
The Payday Lending reform bill hasn't seen much action since a flurry of activity a week ago, and we hear that has a lot to do with Schafer's opposition after listening to former HD-24 Representative (and current state Senate candidate) Cheri Jahn, who worked to kill previous Payday Lending reform bills when she was in the legislature.
That's right -- two Democrats from a strongly-Democratic district may be primarily responsible for killing Payday Lending reform for the second time.
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Wed Mar 17, 2010 at 10:52:40 AM MDT
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The preference poll results from last night are now in, and although this is only round one in a long process that still must wind through counties and state assemblies, here's how we see the results:
On the Democrats' side, we can't really declare either Sen. Michael Bennet or Andrew Romanoff to be a "Winner" or a "Loser" from last night. Romanoff didn't beat Bennet by a significant margin, so little has changed in this race in the last 24 hours. But that doesn't mean there wasn't a lot to discuss on the Republican side, so let's get to it...
WINNERS
Ken Buck
As we wrote yesterday, Buck's campaign for the Republican nomination in the U.S. Senate race obviously had a good feel for the likely results given that his manager was actually raising expectations rather than lowering them. Buck did just slightly better than Jane Norton (37.86% to 37.74%), but this is still a huge victory for the Weld County District Attorney because it shattered the idea of Norton as a clear frontrunner.
Norton spent a lot of money on TV ads leading up to the caucus, and she still couldn't even get to 40%. She's now going to have to continue to spend money through the state assembly in order to hold on to her delegates and stem Buck's momentum. Buck still has to show he can raise money after a pathetic Q4 that saw him raise just $40k, but the momentum is now on his side.
Dan Maes
Lost in the discussion over the U.S. Senate race was the fact that the unknown, poorly-funded Maes managed to pull nearly 40% in a preference poll for Governor. This is more an indictment of frontrunner Scott McInnis than a sign of strength for Maes, but nevertheless this is a big victory for a guy that nobody had even heard of a year ago.
LOSERS
Scott McInnis
If the results from last night's preference polling holds through the state assembly, McInnis is going to have to really campaign to make sure he makes it out of a gubernatorial primary. Challenger Dan Maes has been a thorn in his side for a few months, but most people (including us) wouldn't have expected Maes to actually be on the ballot in August. Maes likely couldn't have afforded to petition on to the ballot, but now it looks like he might make it on through the caucus process, which is a massive blow to McInnis' hopes of beating Democrat John Hickenlooper in November. McInnis will now have to expend real time and resources in the primary -- neither of which he can afford to use up before a general election battle with Hick.
Jane Norton
We covered this in our discussion of Ken Buck above. The image of Norton as GOP frontrunner has been smashed, and she's going to have to really ratchet up the fundraising (and the spending) in order to make sure she gets through the primary.
Tom Wiens
By picking up just 16% of the votes, Wiens came in a distant third to Buck and Norton in the GOP Senate polls and needs to go the petition route to make sure he makes it onto the ballot. Given that most of Wiens' warchest comes from his own bank account, he's got a decision to make. Does he spend the money to gather the necessary petition signatures and continue his campaign? Or does he take the caucus results as a sign that he might not have the support to win a primary? We don't think Wiens is out of the running by any means -- not with Norton's poor performance and Buck's meager finances -- but last night was definitely a "fork in the road" moment for him.
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Wed Mar 17, 2010 at 09:36:07 AM MDT
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If you haven't been paying attention to Colorado House Bill 1365, the product of a deal between the state and Xcel Energy to refit hundreds of megawatts of coal-fired electricity generation along the Front Range to Western Slope natural gas, you should--this is one of the biggest political game-changers that Colorado has seen in at least several years, and the full implications are still making themselves apparent. As the Durango Herald reports:
Rep. Ellen Roberts and Sen. Bruce Whitehead - rivals in the state's hottest Senate race - will cooperate on an attempt to replace coal power plants with natural gas.
It promises to be one of the biggest bills of the year.
Coal miners hate it, but many other interests love it, including the state's largest utility, the natural-gas industry, environmentalists and most of the Legislature's Republicans and Democrats.
The bill also marks the first tangible result of a new strategy by the natural-gas industry.
Instead of fighting environmentalists, companies are using clean-air laws to open the lucrative electricity market to natural gas.
Gov. Bill Ritter called House Bill 13[65] "a very big deal." His biggest critic, Senate Minority Leader Josh Penry, said it could be a "game-changer" for the natural-gas industry...
Environmentalists were jubilant.
"This is one of the most important and consequential pieces of legislation that we've had the pleasure of working on," said Pam Kiely of Environment Colorado. "We have in Colorado really stepped out on a limb. We are talking about fundamentally changing how we power our future."
It really is that big, folks. Politically, this plan yields benefits for everyone involved: after over a year of endless (and bogus) protestations that the new rules governing oil and gas drilling were 'killing the industry,' a large new market for locally-produced natural gas will be created, substantially taking a whole set of electioneering claims off the table. There's an argument to be made that Democratic gubernatorial candidate John Hickenlooper was already in the process of doing just that; but now the job is easier, and the energy industry has even less incentive to wage war. It's a huge face-saving legacy builder for Josh Penry, too, as he figures out what to do with himself when his Senate term ends.
The Herald goes on to report that this agreement between the state and Xcel was a year in the making. Bringing opposing parties together on this kind of scale is something we can only remember happening once or twice in recent years, and word is that some of Colorado's foremost political powerbrokers, like Hogan & Hartson's Ted Trimpa, were instrumental in moving this from discussion to the cutting of a deal.
So--we're well and truly done now with the "Colorado is at rock bottom" nonsense, right?
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Wed Mar 17, 2010 at 06:48:33 AM MDT
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"I do not believe that any political campaign justifies the declaration of a moratorium on ordinary common sense."
--Dwight D. Eisenhower
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Tue Mar 16, 2010 at 17:17:15 PM MDT
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"I have learned the difference between a cactus and a caucus. On a cactus, the pricks are on the outside."
--Morris K. Udall
UPDATE: Tweeted by the Denver Post's Curtis Hubbard:
BIG BUCK NEWS: 8% of pcts reporting in GOP senate Buck 40.36% Norton 30.40% Wiens 20.29% Tidwell 5.98% #caucusco
Norton-Buck. With 16 % in, she's back in the lead 37% to 33.5%. Question is, what if she doesn't win plurality? #caucusco
Norton and Buck are deadlocked at 37 percen[t] with almost 90 percent of precincts in. Amazing night . #caucusCO
Romanoff in danger of dropping below 50%. Have to believe the campaign was hoping for a bigger margin of victory (Bennet at 42) #caucusCO
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Tue Mar 16, 2010 at 18:16:47 PM MDT
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An undeniable barometer of nervousness, says National Journal's Hotline:
Ex-CO LG Jane Norton (R) leads the GOP field in her bid to face Sen. Michael Bennet (D), but a costly primary is already sapping Norton of much-needed resources as she heads into an early test of strength.
Norton has spent $243K on TV ads since announcing her candidacy, including a recent surge in the run-up to tonight's caucuses. The ads urge GOPers to attend the caucuses which, even though they are non-binding, could serve as an embarrassment if she loses to either of her less-well-known rivals.
The run-up to the statewide caucuses "is hugely labor-intensive. It's all-consuming for a campaign," said GOP pollster Nicole McClesky, a veteran of CO campaigns who is not affiliated with a candidate this year. Even if Norton loses tonight, McClesky said, "she's the front-runner."
But as in other states where the GOP's establishment favorite has run into roadblocks, Norton is finding trouble on her right flank. If Norton loses to either of her 2 rivals tonight, it will be evidence that the GOP activist class is not ready to coalesce around a candidate yet, and that attacks on Norton's record are having an impact.
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Tue Mar 16, 2010 at 17:16:20 PM MDT
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( - promoted by Colorado Pols)
The Michael Bennet campaign announced this afternoon it will start running a television ad on Wednesday to introduce the candidate and his campaign to voters.
The message is a sharp stick in the eye of Washington, which Bennet calls "broken," building on reform measures he introduced earlier this month. It's the first TV commercial Bennet has ever run, his campaign emphasizes, making the point he's not a career politician.
Shot in front of Lookout Mountain, the ad also unveils a new Bennet slogan: "I'm Michael Bennet and I approve this message," he says, "because I'm listening to Colorado."
The ad will run for two weeks in Denver and Colorado Springs on broadcast and cable at a reported cost in the neighborhood of $300,000.
Watch the ad and read a transcript after the jump.
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Tue Mar 16, 2010 at 15:55:23 PM MDT
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Please take a moment to visit the websites of our two new advertisers, the American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity and Reform Immigration For America, by clicking their ads in the right column of this page.
There's a simple reason why people want their ads displayed here at Colorado Pols, it's because they get seen. Get yours going today--click "Advertise at Colorado Pols" in the right column, or send an email to ads@coloradopols.com.
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Tue Mar 16, 2010 at 15:24:10 PM MDT
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(Because - promoted by Danny the Red (hair))
I know all there is to know
about the expectations game...
I've played my share of the expectations game.
After a year of bar talk and blogging and doorbell ringing and millions of robocalls, tonight registered Democrats and Republicans will gather at their precinct caucuses for a true exercise in grass-roots democracy. While the straw polls that will be used to apportion delegates to the next step, county assemblies, aren't binding, they usually provide a good clue as to the relative strengths of the respective contenders.
Of course, all the campaign managers are in football coach mode, trying to spin expectations. "I know the Little Sisters of the Poor will beat the Cornhuskers by thirty points or so," Nebraska coach Ron Spinmeister told the Associated Press. "But if we score even one field goal, it's a moral victory for us."
Well, maybe not. State Sen. Gil Romero rode a strong personal story to the top line at the state Democratic convention in 1998, but Dottie Lamm won the primary and the U.S. Senate anyway. More recently, little known Mike Miles won top line in 2004 but lost the nomination to then Attorney General Ken Salazar.
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Tue Mar 16, 2010 at 13:28:20 PM MDT
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As Politico reports today, the spin is in full effect on the eve of tonight's caucuses. Read some of the quotes after the jump, including our take on who really has the most at stake in the race for U.S. Senate...including a potential glimpse into the results.
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Tue Mar 16, 2010 at 12:30:14 PM MDT
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Republican Treasurer candidate Walker Stapleton announced today that he would be petitioning onto the ballot and not participating in the caucus. From a press release:
Walker Stapleton, candidate for Colorado State Treasurer, will launch a grassroots statewide petition drive to earn a spot on the Republican Party primary ballot.
"I am really looking forward to starting the petition process," Stapleton said. "This is a great chance to get out and talk to thousands of registered Republicans across the state about the need to put taxpayers first and put Colorado back on the path to fiscal discipline."
Stapleton said his campaign will be out at major events statewide throughout the spring collecting signatures.
There's no real surprise here, given that Republican candidates J.J. Ament and Ali Hasan are more well-known among Republican faithful. Stapleton will need to collect at least 10,500 signatures from registered Republicans (1,500 minimum from each congressional district) in order to qualify for the ballot.
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Tue Mar 16, 2010 at 12:24:40 PM MDT
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Over the weekend, we were obliged to correct some rather egregious misrepresentations in a Denver Post column on the economic impact of online retailing giant Amazon.com's decision to end its affiliate relationships with Colorado residents. Post columnist David Harsanyi, among several other profoundly dumb assertions, claimed that Amazon's "closure" of its Colorado affiliates "involved 5,000 jobs." Which, as we've explained before and will again in a moment, is a wild and baseless exaggeration of reality.
But first, a word from the Colorado Senate Minority Leader Josh Penry's press office!
"Accusing the business community of 'crying wolf' over job losses is a huge insult to the hundreds of Amazon affiliates laid off because of the new Internet tax [Pols emphasis] or the thousands of steel workers whose jobs have been put in jeopardy because of the new energy tax," said Sen. Ken Kester, R-Las Animas.
Business owners repeatedly testified before members of the legislature saying that a series of Democrat proposed tax increases would kill jobs. Pepsi officials, for example, told lawmakers a new soda tax will put at risk as many as 800 jobs. A new tax hike on candy will target 150 workers at Grand Junction confectioner Enstrom's, and the more than $3.3 million the company spends each year with more than 300 Colorado vendors...
On the "Amazon tax," what we're talking about are essentially online advertising agreements with owners of small websites, both commercial and personal. Let's put this in perspective: say you've got a website. If that website gets 2,500 unique visitors in a month, which is not too shabby for a lot of websites, and assuming a click-through rate of 0.5%, higher than many studies have shown typical--that's 13 people, rounded up, who would click through to an Amazon "buy something" page. Let's generously say that half of those actually buy the product, for simplicity's sake a $25 book. Amazon's "Classic" compensation program pays a 4% commission on these sales.
7 sales x $25 = $175 in sales, 4% of which is...$7.
Seven dollars a month, folks, and that's under a fairly generous set of hypothetical circumstances. We're not unsympathetic to any loss of income in these tough economic times, to be sure, but we don't know anybody who would consider the loss of seven dollars a month to be a "lost job" in any realistic sense of the term. We wouldn't call that a lost job at many multiples of that figure, and we have yet to see a Colorado-based website that has actually produced anything remotely close to full-time employment income through this program--period. Take issue with the policy all you want, but please don't refer to these referral programs as "lost jobs" or "layoffs" ever again. It's just silly.
As soon as you understand the extent to which Amazon's arbitrary response to this law, more to the point the economic effect of that response, is being blown out of all earthly proportion by opportunistic politicians, the idea that a 2.9% tax won't really put 800 Pepsi employees out of work (please, folks)--or Enstrom or Rocky Mountain Steel either--makes a lot more sense.
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Tue Mar 16, 2010 at 10:02:38 AM MDT
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( - promoted by Colorado Pols)
The Scott McInnis campaign forks out $487 to an "appearance coach," who reportedly advises McInnis to shave off his mustache and update his glasses, and it barely makes a blip of news.
Is this a sign of good journalism or cynical passivity on behalf of the Colorado media?
When the appearance-coach story broke (and was mostly ignored) last month, I first thought it was the former-a sign that maybe journalists were moving away from blowing up meaningless symbols into eyeball-grabbing news stories.
But now I'm thinking Colorado journalists let us down on this one.
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Tue Mar 16, 2010 at 06:49:29 AM MDT
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"What I was going to say," said the Dodo in an offended tone, "was, that the best thing to get us dry would be a Caucus-race."
--From Lewis Carroll's Alice in Wonderland
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Mon Mar 15, 2010 at 16:39:10 PM MDT
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(Well Written and interesting (plus it was written by a candidate) - promoted by Danny the Red (hair))
The road to hell is paved with good intentions. If Proposition 101 is approved, that road may be the only bit of pavement left in Colorado that doesn't need repair.
In a nutshell, Prop. 101 seeks to cut vehicle ownership fees to $1/used cars and $2/ new cars, set vehicle registration fees at a flat $10, cut vehicle sales tax, incrementally decrease state income taxes to 3.5 percent and, other than 911 fees, eradicate all taxes and fees on phone, satellite, and Internet services.
The stated rational for this sweeping proposal is two-fold: limiting powers of government, and ceasing excessive collection of dollars that government allegedly does not need.
There are so many flaws in the simplistic application of these two arguments that it is difficult to know where to start, but let's look first at limited power of government. No red-blooded American favors too much government, but even the Founding Fathers acknowledged that government has certain responsibilities, simple basics such as public safety and facilitation of a functioning society.
Maintaining a sound infrastructure of roads and bridges certainly fits those criteria.
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Mon Mar 15, 2010 at 15:23:09 PM MDT
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There are days when we feel genuinely bad for CD-4 also-ran candidate Tom Lucero, like at last week's congressional debate--as reported by the Longmont Times-Call:
For 90 minutes on Thursday, the four candidates for the 4th Congressional District in the Republican Party varied only slightly in their responses.
Then Referendum C came up...
Tom Lucero, a member of the University of Colorado Board of Regents, said the regents supported the measure. Even with the additional money in the state budget, higher education has seen a 60 percent cut in funding, he said, and it would have been much worse without Referendum C.
Others disagreed.
"Referendum C was wrong," Dean Madere said. "The answer is, find the money elsewhere."
Rep. Cory Gardner said he bucked his own party in opposing Referendum C.
"It wasn't a TABOR timeout; it was a TABOR blowout," Gardner said...
We'd love to get Cory Gardner and Jane Norton in the same room to debate Referendum C, would be interesting to see who gets more uncomfortable. Beyond that, you have to feel some sympathy for Lucero, who made only the mistake of relating his experience on the issue--dodging a catastrophic budget cut to the University of Colorado. But doing that, as Rush Limbaugh likes to put it, "skewered the sacred cow" for Republican faithful in the room.
The dogpile that followed pretty much couldn't be helped.
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