McInnis leads Penry in early GOP poll

( – promoted by ClubTwitty)

Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies, a consulting firm that frequently works with Republican candidates, has just released a poll on the GOP gubernatorial primary that shows Scott McInnis with an early lead over Josh Penry and Dan Maes. Lots of voters still undecided, as you might expect at this stage.

“The results of this survey clearly demonstrate

that Scott McInnis enjoys broad support and name recognition across the state. Josh

Penry and Dan Maes have a lot of work to do in both support and name recognition at

this early stage of the campaign,” Magellan’s David Flaherty says in a summary of the findings.

McInnis had 34 percent support among self-identified Republican primary voters, compared to 11 percent for Penry and 6 percent for Maes. Undecideds were at 49 percent.

On their shared Western Slope home turf, McInnis leads Penry 44-26, according to the Magellan Poll.

This was an automated telephone poll of 1,649 respondents who identified themselves as Republican primary voters, conducted July 26. Results were weighted based on statewide Republican demographics from the last three cycles.

McInnis had a name ID of 80 percent, compared to 51 percent for Penry and 43 percent for Maes. Despite those name IDs, it’s clear the three candidates are still largely unknown to GOP primary voters. Each had an undecided/never heard of him image result of 50 percent or more.

56 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. Considering Penry did a statewide tour.  

  2. RedGreenRedGreen says:

    Maes has a name ID that high. Maybe all those “Evergreen businessman Don Maes is also seeking the nomination” tags at the end of Penry and McInnis stories are starting to sink in.

    • MesaModerate says:

      Isn’t this the same pollster that Mike May fired because their work was shit and they couldn’t predict house races to save their ass?  

      Perhaps I’m thinking of Marco Pollo Data Strategies…?  

      • I have never done a survey, live or automated for Mike May.  

        • No offense, but I’m fairly certain that everyone at the Capitol understands that your polls (while cheap) aren’t reliable.  

          Just ask the “next fucking state representative from House District 56” how reliable they are (see below).  

          • I can understand that serving with Josh in the legislature you have obviously formed a tight bond with him.  The long hours, sharing the legislative experience together, etc.  I can also understand why you are attacking this survey and Magellan’s credibility.  No one likes to see their friend down 20 points at the start of a long election.  

            Like all campaigns, these numbers will tighten up, but 1,649 Republican respondents are not pushing the wrong button.  And this survey is weighted exactly on Republican primary demogrpahics for the past 3 primary cycles.

            McInnis 34%, Penry 11%, Maes 6%, Undecided 49%.  That is where the Republican primary for Governor is today.          

  3. coop says:

    Sorry but I don’t get excited about someone else’s summary of a document that no one else has seen.  

    First of all, automated tele-polls are notoriously innacurate and most real pollsters scoff at the results.

    Second, Flaherty has been telling everyone on the planet that he is working for McInnis, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the results above are after a pro-McInnis push.

    Post the poll.  And post the whole thing, Flaherty, because I will know if you have edited it.

  4. dem girl says:

    Penry has just begun taking jabs.  McInnis isn’t getting any press.  The pol is a snapshot of right now.  Penry is way more aggressive and McInnis won’t have the stomach to fight back on the same terms.  The old guard R’s favor McInnis but the old guard doesn’t control the party any more.  None of the R’s formerly in office who I have spoken to who support McInnis could themselves get elected today.  The truly interesting thing about this race is whether Penry will moderate his stance as Minority Leader during 2010 in preparation for the general election or whether he sticks to his extremism to win the primary.  While staying in the Senate may help him get free press, everything he says will be very much on the record.  Can’t hide or backslide later.

    • First off, Magellan did all of my personal polling during our HD56 run, including all of our data work

      David Flaherty and his team are TOP CLASS — I trust this poll 110%

      Regarding the meaning of the poll –

      Senator Penry has done some terrific things for our Party, but I rarely saw him in Pueblo and Colorado Springs

      McInnis is very well known in Pueblo, but has done little work in Colorado Springs

      Overall – both have missed a terrific opportunity to cultivate some Front Range areas that are hungry to see their leadership

      The fact that neither candidate has really cultivated El Paso County (and Douglas, for that matter) doesn’t speak well of their game plans – I honestly don’t see the factors of this race changing that drastically, from here on out, mainly due to the fact that golden opportunities have already been missed

      Lastly, Republican primary voters are VERY stubborn – Senator Penry has a very large uphill battle, if he’s losing 34 to 11 — primary voters are not easy to change the minds of, and normally, they’ll pick seniority over fresh ideas

      my 2 cents….

    • Ralphie says:

      A poll this early might be meaningless as a predictor of the primary.

      However, it’s great news for McInnis’ fundraising effort, which is precisely why it was released.  Nobody wants to donate money to a guy who can’t win.  The poll says McInnis CAN win.  Not necessarily that he will, but that he CAN.  That’s something that he can, quite literally, take to the bank.

      You don’t think Penry is polling?  Ask yourself why his own internals haven’t been leaked yet.  My guess is that they confirm the McInnis numbers.  If they were better, he’d be leaking them all over hell.

  5. MesaModerate says:

    Interesting points in this morning’s Sentinel about this poll.  

    1.  McInnis paid for it.

    2.  McInnis paid for it.

    Penry’s comment seemed appropriate for the circumstances:

    Penry threw cold water on the survey, pointedly noting that “early name ID is a poor predictor of Election Night victory. Just ask President Hillary Rodham Clinton.”

  6. Newbie2009 says:

    Is it just me or are people totally underestimating the significance of McInnis breaking campaign finance law?! As if this video isnt going to end up on TV? As if this doesnt land in the mailbox of every voter in the state.

    I mean seriously.

    “Shawn Tonner is running my 527”

    That is the kinda thing people go to jail for.

    • RedGreenRedGreen says:

      the kind of thing people go to jail for.

      Can you name the last time a campaign finance violation was even prosecuted in Colorado?

      This might get passed around during the primary, but any damage has already been done. Regular voters don’t care.

      • Newbie2009 says:

        “Regular voters wont care” that someone a step from the Governor’s mansion is breaking the law!

        I beg to differ. This will be used more in the general than the primary. Progress Now are the ones already working on the creative for this one. You’re nuts!

        • RedGreenRedGreen says:

          can you name a single successful prosecution of campaign finance law violations in recent Colorado history? There have been far more egregious examples than this, which involved voters file under the “everyone does it” category and less interested voters don’t understand. Progress Now can do all the “creative” they want on this, but it just isn’t that big a deal.

          That said, there are far more damaging McInnis lapses that will get plenty of attention.

      • WestSloper says:

        Ethics Watch recently won a campaign violation case against a pro-Republican 527 that was involved with the Garfield County commissioner races in 2008.

        April 15, 2009:

        Today, the Colorado League of Taxpayers admitted that it violated campaign finance laws by failing to file an electioneering communication report last fall.

        Incidently, McInnis was involved with some of those 527’s that went on the attack against the GarCo Democratic commissioner candidates in the last election…..

        • RedGreenRedGreen says:

          I said prosecuted, not appeared before an administrative hearing, but I’ll take that case. Tell me then, exactly how did the same group’s previous violation in Weld County affect its ability to conduct successful campaigns in Garco? Answer: It didn’t.

          Garco residents were well aware what was going on and, in the end, it simply didn’t matter enough, for all the breathless headlines about buying the election. (See: Polis primary victory for more detail on the effectiveness of that charge.)

          The 527 was fined just under $10,000, which amounts to a rounding error in their book keeping, and Shires moves on to do the same thing over and over.

          Unless there’s a criminal prosecution, this stuff doesn’t even break the radar of the average voter, and McInnis’ voice mail message doesn’t cut it for that.

          I’m not saying what McInnis (and his associated 527s) has done isn’t wrong, and that it shouldn’t attract the attention of watchdog groups — but it doesn’t matter to most voters. Campaigns see this kind of thing as a cost of doing business and voters see it, if they see it at all, as an “everybody does it” brand of corner-cutting.

  7. Newbie2009 says:

    They are seriously funny.

    It looks like McInnis (in his typical caracature form) with his wife filming (without a tri-pod) in front of like, 6 people.

    There is ZERO comprehensive message.

    At one point, he tries to talk about experience but totally over-acts and falls over the top.

    Can anyone say: TRAIN WRECK!

    • guesswho says:

      They were from a front row guy at a function of about 60 people at someone’s house in Ft. Collins.

      Hey Newbie…did you catch Politico yesterday with Ritter pictured as one of the most likely to lose.  Now that campaign is a TRAIN WRECK.

  8. Danny the Red (hair)Danny the Red (hair) says:

    The age skew.

    Older voters are the most likely primary voters, but it is a very frightening situation for the GOP if this pole is accurate.

    • I thought that was interesting.  Also the very high undecided in CDs 4,5,6 — Republican bases.  No big suprise that it’s lower in 3, and the few Repubs they found in 1 and 2 seemed a little more decided.

      In polling this far out, it’s not suprising to see high undecided, but when the undecided is twice the “lead” candidate, it shows a very open race…

  9. COSkier07 says:

    I hope Penry reads this poll and vows out. He has no chance. If McInnis already has this much of a lead, it’s over, especially since it’s obvious that McInnis is going to kill Penry in the fundraising department.

  10. Were they the pollster for Bentley Rayburn or the “neutral” pollster that was to determine if Rayburn or Crank had so little support that they should drop out?  

    If it is the same group that did Rayburn’s polling they are not well regarded.  

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