New Obama/Udall Poll Questionable, But...

Most polls will have some methodological flaws

but this should be some sort of wake up call to Udall & Obama, but particularly to Udall. Even though he's not up for re-election for a while now, the beginning of his term is when the voters are going to create an image for him that he'll carry throughout the rest of his term, and it will absolutely define his re-election hopes. Bottom line, it doesn't seem to jive that Udall needs to be more moderate or liberal, his policy isn't the problem because his policy hasn't changed. However I do think he needs to be generating more buzz and excitement around himself -- he needs to be more visible. During the campaign he was, of course, everywhere, on every TV, on the news and in conversation; helped by the monumental nature of the presidential election.

Now, unless he starts to generate some excitement among his voting bloc (democrats plus moderates) he's going to wear the title "Udall the inert" all the way to re-election. And that is not going to be a good thing.

"If someone just sticks to shutting the fuck up, can they still go outside and play a game of hide and go fuck yourself?" -- Fidel's Dirt Nap

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by: Raphael @ Tue Apr 21, 2009 at 21:20:44 PM UTC

Come on

I wouldn't give this poll any worry. Worry about Obama's number in 2012. Worry about Udall's in 2014.

I guess it's relevant enough for the Pols to post, but I'm not going to fret until I see a poll on someone actually running in the next election.

Yo quiero gobierno medio!

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by: JeffcoBlue @ Tue Apr 21, 2009 at 22:07:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I've been sharing this for days; Udall and Omaba are sinking and Bennet has no name ID

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that 34% of the nation's voters now Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Thirty-two percent (32%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of +2

Presidential Approval Index
04/21/2009
+2

04/20/2009
+3

04/19/2009
+6

04/18/2009
+7

04/17/2009
+3

04/16/2009
+4

04/15/2009
+2

04/14/2009
+3

04/13/2009
+2

04/12/2009
+2

04/11/2009
+5

04/10/2009
+5

04/09/2009
+5

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by: Libertad @ Tue Apr 21, 2009 at 22:11:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Do yourself a favor

and use a pollster other than Rassmussen to make your point about Obama's approval rating. We've shown time and time again that it's an obvious outlier among the polls, and Obama's approval has remained steady in every other poll.

Once again, I'll refer you to (Karl Rove-endorsed) RCP:

Every single other tracking poll has Obama's spread at +20 or above. Rass is almost laughably outside of this at +9, but even then they have Obama at a 54% approval rating--hardly indicative of rioting in the streets.

The president's approval rating has been around 60% since it dropped back down to reality from the 70s when he was inaugurated. Considering the state of the country when he took office, those numbers are nothing less than a clear endorsement of his job as chief executive.

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by: redstateblues @ Tue Apr 21, 2009 at 23:42:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Rasmussen's numbers have been pretty solid.

Rasmussen showed Obama and Udall winning handily last fall.  

Rasmussen showed a national generic ballot at D +7 just before the election last year.  Pretty good predictor.  Rasmussen now shows the generic tied.

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by: Karate Kid @ Wed Apr 22, 2009 at 02:02:38 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Every pollster got it right then

Rasmussen looked good mainly because they weren't an outlier then.

Now they are.

Deal with it.

I demand that all students get As, that all our oil comes from American soil, that waste and fraud be eliminated forever, and that potato chips stop making me fat!

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by: sxp151 @ Wed Apr 22, 2009 at 02:05:42 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

SXP, I know its painful

but the indications are he is sliding.

Generally this would indicate an unsound mix of policy, performance and expectations. However, in this case we might see a reset to previous levels if CNN can learn to spin better or the economy starts to rebound.

But based on continuing concerns and ideas floating out of the Whitehouse, like bankrupting GM, many of those who supported the President are now questioning his campaign commitments.

This was clearly the theme today on 710 or 760 (the Boulder channel that carries Jay Marvin)

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by: Libertad @ Wed Apr 22, 2009 at 04:22:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sliding

Of course Obama's numbers are sliding.  He's been a dissappointment so far.

I was cautiously optomistic that we would actually see 'change' from him, but so far we have not.

All he's done is:

• Send more troops to Afghanistan
• Change the role of the army in Iraq to 'advisors' rather than bring them home
• Expand on Bush's already failing economic policies
• Increase the deficit significantly
• Make noise about gitmo without closing it
• Defend and expand Bush's constitutionally questionable wire-tapping policies

In fact, the only 'Change' I've seen is our President flying around the world and apologizing for America.  Not really what I want to see out of the leader of the free world.

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by: Bob99 @ Wed Apr 22, 2009 at 18:08:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oh you're such a Democrat

http://coloradopols.com/showCo...

I demand that all students get As, that all our oil comes from American soil, that waste and fraud be eliminated forever, and that potato chips stop making me fat!

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by: sxp151 @ Wed Apr 22, 2009 at 19:01:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Do yourself a second favor

and maybe compactify your posts a little?

People who post using a lot

of bold

and

spread out

their

posts

into

sixteen

dozen

lines

look like

kooks.

I demand that all students get As, that all our oil comes from American soil, that waste and fraud be eliminated forever, and that potato chips stop making me fat!

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by: sxp151 @ Wed Apr 22, 2009 at 02:07:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Polls, Schmolls, its the elections that count, now let them work.

Phone polls are so hokey as to be laughable, or is that laffable?

Who is home during the day to take phonecalls?

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by: Colorado Bob @ Tue Apr 21, 2009 at 21:44:34 PM UTC

Favorability is an interesting question

I don't have a favorable view of Udall, but I would have driven through a small nuclear war to vote for him. So when it comes to who will win the election, the question you ask is important.

No trees were destroyed in the posting of this comment. But a large number of electrons were horribly inconvenienced.

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by: DavidThi808 @ Tue Apr 21, 2009 at 22:28:35 PM UTC

Matchups are also important

There was a poll last fall about Ken Salazar's potential re-election, and while his favorable rating wasn't great, in potential head-to-head matchups with Republican opponents he won easily.

Still, it's strange that Udall got no honeymoon period.

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by: Colorado Pols @ Tue Apr 21, 2009 at 23:35:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't think the lack of a honeymoon is strange

A lot of people did not vote for Udall. They voted for "Obama supporter, Democrat, not-Schaffer guy."

Betsy Markey faces the same question, but in her case she has & is putting in a really strong & effective effort to sell her constituents on herself.

Udall has gone back to the witness protection program and so when people were looking to see what they actually got, he's gone.

No trees were destroyed in the posting of this comment. But a large number of electrons were horribly inconvenienced.

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by: DavidThi808 @ Wed Apr 22, 2009 at 00:00:05 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wait a minute

there was someone running against Mark Udall?

Who?
Both-ways Bob?
Marianas Bob?
Idiot Bob?

My prediction is in 2014: Udall 63.4%.
Call me (+1.303.744.9024) in 5.5 years and I will buy the beer if my prediction is crap.

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by: davebarnes @ Wed Apr 22, 2009 at 02:21:19 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I hate these crackerjack box robo-polls

They are essentially glorified marketing gimmicks for a dodgy polling method. The only thing they do is create chatter.  

"At times one remains faithful to a cause only because its opponents do not cease to be insipid." - Nietzsche  

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by: twas brillig @ Tue Apr 21, 2009 at 23:29:41 PM UTC

Chatter

Indeed, the self-referentiality of day-time favorabililty push polls is really just a test of how well spin machines are churning on both sides.  Voter's have no active role to play at this point, and so what we learn from this is that Independents are watching Fox again, rather than reading newspapers (the few that remain), reading leaflets, and talking to their neighbors. In the first 100 days, Dems have tried to stand on their agenda alone, while Repubs have invested time and energy in counter-branding Obama and anyone who stands with him.  All this says to me is that Plouffe and Axelrod need to get busy again doing what they do best, and leave the governing to Obama and Emanuel.

"History is'a made at night! Character is what you are in the dark!"  Lord John Worfin

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by: Meiner49er @ Wed Apr 22, 2009 at 13:04:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

This is how it begins

Yes, Obama's support is eroding. Yes, good conservatives and independents in Colorado are beginning to regret their votes for Udall. And the process will continue, but it won't be them to suffer, at least not yet! Got to wait until 2012/2014 for that.

What did you lefties call Bush for the first four years? Ah yes. A "one term president."

This is a a conservative nation.

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by: GOPwarrior @ Wed Apr 22, 2009 at 00:03:39 AM UTC

Same method Rasmussen uses

And, as they admit, the reason they get much lower approval ratings than any other pollster.

People get pissed off at machines and give them pissed-off opinions.

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

Methodology - Rasmussen Reports uses an automated polling methodology while some firms use operator-assisted techniques. Generally, these different methodologies generate about the same level of approval for different political figures, but the automated technology generally registers a higher level of disapproval. There's no way to be sure why this happens, but it may simply be that some people are reluctant to offer a negative opinion about another human being to a live operator.

I demand that all students get As, that all our oil comes from American soil, that waste and fraud be eliminated forever, and that potato chips stop making me fat!

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by: sxp151 @ Wed Apr 22, 2009 at 02:04:04 AM UTC

The poll's a piece of crap

Nothing more. Not worth the paper it's written on.

For the reasons set forth in the story.

"Why not do the right thing for the American people, even though it's not exactly what we want." - Speaker Boehner

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by: Half Glass Full @ Wed Apr 22, 2009 at 06:48:04 AM UTC