Notable Links



Denver Internet Marketing by Parallel Path

Arvada Boutique Clothing Store Stella B's

Senator Tom Strickland

by: dslater

Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 11:09:48 AM MDT


(Remember, thou art mortal - promoted by Colorado Pols)

(Cross-Posted to DemNotes at www.DemNotes.com)

I'm sure you all are familiar with Tom Strickland, the United States Senator that Mark Udall is running to replace, right?  What's that?  He's not a Senator?  Oh, yeah, that's right -- he lost.

I last ran into Tom Strickland at an event during the Democratic National Convention in August.  It was a brief meeting, but it certainly brought up a lot of memories of the campaign trail in 2002.  Tom seemed to be doing okay -- enjoying his life in the "private sector"; however, I know that Colorado (and America) would have been much better if he had won in 2002 instead of Wayne Allard.

It was this very point in 2002 -- the weekend before the election -- that I was standing on a stage with Strickland at Pueblo's Union Depot, just a few hundred yards from where Senator Barack Obama will be speaking on Saturday.  The atmosphere was quite upbeat; a new statewide poll by one of the Denver newspapers had put Strickland up by something like 6 points.  There was a clear air of confidence that we were standing with our next United States Senator.  

A few days later, Colorado's voters had a different message to send.

dslater :: Senator Tom Strickland
In 2004, the polls taken at this point in the election cycle -- less than a week left before the election -- showed John Kerry with a one-point lead in Colorado.  He lost by around five points.  

Look, I'm not trying to pour cold water on the idea that we can win Colorado; we most certainly can.  But we have to work like we're five points down.  We cannot let up any bit.  This is still the sprint to the finish line.  For those of you looking at this on the Internet, this short video is instructive (and funny):

(For those reading this via e-mail, you can find the video here:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Xnk9aqih8o

Now, I'm going to do something "rogue" right now.  I'm NOT going to encourage you to see Barack Obama in Pueblo Saturday.  If you're interested, the event will be at the corner of Union and D streets, and the gates open at 1:00 for the 3:00 event.  But you can do a LOT more good for the campaign if you spend that time knocking on doors and making phone calls for the campaign.  

If you DO insist on going, then you need to do one thing:  bring somebody with you who is not quite sure about voting for Senator Obama.  I totally understand the appeal and allure of seeing history in Southern Colorado.  I do.  But make sure that you've got somebody with you that still needs a little convincing if you're going to go.  We've proven to the world that Coloradans will show up for Barack Obama -- some reports say last Sunday's event in Denver was the largest political rally in the history of our nation.  

We now need to prove to the world that Colorado will VOTE for Barack Obama.  And Mark Udall.  And Betsy Markey.  And Hank Eng.  And Hal Bidlack.  And John Salazar, Ed Perlmutter, Diana DeGette, and Jared Polis.  And our many great State House and State Senate candidates.

Tags: , (All Tags)

Share this post:

Very prudent to bring up Strickland
I was wondering if anyone was going to mention that it was a preconceived notion that he was going to win. How wrong we were.

I really, really hope that Udall does not fall victim to the same drastic difference in polling compared to actual votes.


We'll See
I remember thinking he had a chance based on the polls. And even getting my sister to vote absentee because I thought it would be close. But I think I was worried too because there were some polls showing him behind.

Colorado has a history of early polls flirting with Democrats and then coming home for Republicans, as I remember. But usually there is some late polling showing strong tightening, aren't there?

Matthew


[ Parent ]
Wasn't the preconceived notion of a win
created by former Party chair and brilliant pollster Cirulli?

I can feel Udall in the air and we'll need a good strong liberal to shore up for the loss of Obama and Biden in the Senate


[ Parent ]
Zogby had Strickland ahead by something like 8 right up until the last moment for polls
The sight of those numbers streaming by without Strickland leading or even close from the first second soured me on Zogby for good.

[ Parent ]
The public polls late in the 2002 election cycle were just plain wrong
Allard was running for reelection as was Gov. Owens that year.  Owens was not only tracking his campaign but he also was tracking the senate race.  Both Allard's and Owens' internal tracking polls had Wayne winning by between 4 and 7 points from early October through election day.  It never varied.  Strickland was always slightly behind and in the end he lost by the same margin as he did in 1996.

[ Parent ]
Soured me on Zogby too
And didn't Zogby exit polling in 2004 indicate a Kerry win nationwide?

[ Parent ]
consistently bad
that's Zogby.  Even before fivethirtyeight started factoring in past performance in their poll regressions I ignored every Zogby poll I saw.  

In fact, I just registered
www.veryliberalagitatedpissedoffpeoplewithnoorganization.com
-Laughing Boy


[ Parent ]
Here's some historical perspective
The polls were all over the place.

Although three Zogby polls conducted October 9-November 4, 2002, put Allard consistently behind Strickland by 4.3 points on average, tracking polls Ciruli Associates conducted in October and early November for the Post showed Allard leading consistently in eight polls conducted October 18-28 by an average of 4 points, and trailing by 1 point in a poll conducted October 29-November 1.

Tracking polls Talmey-Drake Research & Strategy conducted October 3-31 for the Rocky Mountain News showed the lead -- always within the margin of error -- changing three times. In three polls Allard led by an average of 3.7 points; in five polls Allard trailed by 2.6 points on average. The candidates tied in one poll.


[ Parent ]
I'm complacent, I think we've got it won
And yet, I will be working every waking hour Saturday, Sunday, & Tuesday on GOTV effort. Because when you're clearly ahead in the game - you have to continue playing every bit as well to the end whistle in order to win.

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

Agree with all you say!
   

[ Parent ]
one of the best posts of late
thanks for the reminder

In fact, I just registered
www.veryliberalagitatedpissedoffpeoplewithnoorganization.com
-Laughing Boy


Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?







Advertise Here!
ads@coloradopols.com


Active Users
Currently 1 user(s) logged on.

Search




Advanced Search



Colorado Pols Network


Jeffco Pols
  More >

Denver Pols
  More >













RSS 2.0



Pols Gets Mobile: ColoradoPols.com/mobile/

Colorado Pols is on Twitter: twitter.com/coloradopols

Email Pols


How to Write a Diary That Will Make the Front Page



Terms of Use/Privacy Policy



Pols Posting Policies



The Pols Penalty Box



Yard Signs!



The Pols "Mailbag"

Mailbag #1



Relevant Links

The Big Media Blog

Blog It Right

Blog For Growth

Blogometer

Business Word

Colorado Capitol Journal

Colorado Center on Law and Policy

Colorado Democratic Party

Colorado Ethics Watch

Colorado Independent

Colorado Labor Blog

Colorado Veterans for America

Colorado Legislature

Colorado Lib

Colorado Libertarian Blog

Colorado Media Matters

Colorado Progressive Coalition

Colorado Republican Party

Colorado Secretary of State

Colorado Senate Dems

Colorado Senate GOP

Colorado Young Democrats

Commentary Today

Coyote Gulch

CU Democrats

Curious Stranger

Daily Kos

Dan Willis-Rumors

Dem Notes

Democracy for Colorado

Denver Politics

East Boulder County Politics

Ed Stein Ink

Election Neutrality Now

eleXn

George in Denver

Great Education Colorado

Head First Colorado

The Hotline Political Network

Junction Daily Blog

Left in the West

Liberal and Loving It

Maintain Educational Standards in Colorado

Mount Virtus

MyDD

National Journal

On Call

Peak Dems

Political State Report

Progress Now

Prometheus

Project Vote Smart

Radio Free Denver

Senate Guru

Slapstick Politics

Steam Powered Opinions

Square State

Stygius

TalkLeft

The Thicket

The Bell Policy Center

The Hypothetical Wren

ThomasMC.com

Toilet Paper Online

TRACER Campaign Finance

View From a Height

Walter in Denver

Wash Park Prophet

Western Democrat


Colorado Pols is wholly owned by Colorado Pols, LLC
webmaster-at-coloradopols.com

Powered by: SoapBlox