BREAKING: NRCC Pulls Out of Musgrave Race

Another day

Another story about the Republicans pulling out.

Whatever happened to "stay the course"?

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by: redstateblues @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 20:50:41 PM UTC

There's a great metaphor in there somewhere about pulling out.

"Politics determines who has the power, not who has the truth." Paul Krugman, 9/2010

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by: parsingreality @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 21:03:22 PM UTC

well let's hope for the GOP's sake

that they aren't pulling out prematurely. We know how messy that gets!

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by: passerby @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 21:15:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

They're job is done.

Time to move on.

Its just like Further, but with tax cuts! - Fidel's Dirt Nap

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by: ajb @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 22:38:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ugh

That is a mental picture I do not want to have about Marilyn Muskox.

The only worse picture is: sliding in, in the first place.

"Why not do the right thing for the American people, even though it's not exactly what we want." - Speaker Boehner

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by: Half Glass Full @ Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 03:06:01 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Republican circle jerk

I used that phrase in the thread about the conception is life.  Pretty disgusting, eh?

MM....Ooooooo!

"Politics determines who has the power, not who has the truth." Paul Krugman, 9/2010

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by: parsingreality @ Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 13:42:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I wonder

1. Has anyone seen polling numbers since the Emily's List poll in late September?

2. Should Markey win who will run? I think it will be a bitter primary featuring Ken Buck, Marc Hillman, Cory Gardner. Not to mention Bob Schaffer trying to return from the political dead

3. Is the pullout in CD 4 indicative of an overall GOP pullout meaning no money for McCain, Schaffer or Musgrave in the final twelve days?

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by: Hugh Jorgen 2008 @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 21:03:43 PM UTC

Who Runs Against Markey? Who Cares...

If Markey pulls this off, she will get a plum committee assignment, key bills to sponsor and the DCCC will pour tons of cash into this seat.  Buck, Hillman or Gardner don't stand a chance.  Not to mention the fact that re-districting occurs in 2010 and Dems will Gerrymander the hell out of CD-4 so if fully benefits a Markey re-election campaign.

Repubs are generally overconfident in their ability to win in Colorado.  Newsflash R's: you're losing ground by the minute right now and CD-4 should be the one of the last races on your minds right now.  NRCC did the right thing here.

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by: RockySnark @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 21:45:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes and no, Rocky

Ds will try their damnest to gerrymander the fourth but they can't do it until 2012. You have to have the 2010 census first. And a successful gerrymander assumes the Ds keep control of both houses of the lege in the 2010 election (House likely, Senate a bit less so) as well as the Gov. (less than 50/50 at this time but see who the rs nominate.)
Still the power of incumbency is awesome and if (and I do mean IF) markey squeaks in this time, I'd make her a 60/40 favorite in 2010.  Constituent service and the franking privilege are huge advantages.  And presumably she won't piss off Tim Gill and guarantee millions in negative ads every election the way Marilyn did.  

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by: bob ewegen @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 21:56:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You think Ritter is likely to lose in 2010?

...is that what you said?

I'm not as sweet as I used to be.

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by: Jambalaya @ Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 00:42:33 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah, how can you realistically peg Ritter at less than even odds to repeat in '10?

Who's his likely opponent?

Schaffer?

"Why not do the right thing for the American people, even though it's not exactly what we want." - Speaker Boehner

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by: Half Glass Full @ Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 03:07:49 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Tancredo.

I knew a stripper named Skyler once.  --TaxCheatGeithner

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by: Skyler @ Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 14:50:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

If the Dems win the 4th

The R's will contest it much more then they are the 3rd.  The 4th is pretty red, making Musgrave's continued weakness there all the more pronounced

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by: Haners @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 22:21:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It is red, but not as red as the GOP thinks

I think Gardner/Hillman/Schaffer(?)/Buck will try to outflank each other to the right and if Markey just runs down the center (make a couple of right votes--I recommend an pro NRA position so that she can get the NRA incumbant endorsement--to counter left votes) They won't stand a chance.

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by: Danny the Red (hair) @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 22:31:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Down the line with NRA

would give Markey real job security. Ask John Salazar!

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by: bob ewegen @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 22:46:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Bob, when Musgrave loses you owe me lunch.

Somewhere nice, too. You know Denver well. You can pick. :)

"I wouldn't characterize caloric intake as "professional development." c rork

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by: Middle of the Road @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 23:28:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It depends

I think whom ever the party chair is at the time will try and clear the way, but there will probably be two people who run for the Republican nod.  I'd say Gardner and Buck would probably be the front runners, just because if we get our tails kicked, we're probably going to be looking for someone new.

I think either of them would be able to present themselves as the type of conservative that fits CD 4

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by: Haners @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 22:58:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Inquiring minds want to know

Dude, let's see the letter.  Enuf of this he said she said.  If you've got the goods, show 'em.

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by: RavenDawg @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 21:13:41 PM UTC

R-Dawg is right

Lets see some documentation...

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by: mr science @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 21:35:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I can dig it

PDF!

"At times one remains faithful to a cause only because its opponents do not cease to be insipid." - Nietzsche  

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by: twas brillig @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 21:40:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

http://www.coloradoan.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081022/NEWS03/81022036

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by: colorado76 @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 22:07:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

From one of the very advertisers...

....who were the victim of multiple early withdrawls:

DENVER - Two of the biggest spenders in Colorado's political world the last few months are pulling their resources out of the state for the last week before the election.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) and the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) each informed Colorado television stations, including 9NEWS and My20, that they would not be advertising from Oct. 28 to Nov. 4.

http://www.9news.com/news/loca...

"The nation which forgets its defenders will be itself forgotten." Calvin Coolidge

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by: SSG_Dan @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 23:00:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

DSCC is pullin out of Colorado too

Because Udall is so far ahead :)

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by: DUDem @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 21:47:01 PM UTC

Will Hal Bidlack beat Lamborn

Yes, yes, I know - I'm a bit of an optimist. But did anyone think it was going to go this bad for the Republicans in this state? They're giving up on everything. And Lamborn has been ignored, granted because they figure he's safe.

But... What if? It's 2 weeks away and Schaffer & Musgrave are down so much that the national party has given up on both. Hal could win - and wouldn't that be a neat treat.

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

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by: DavidThi808 @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 22:32:32 PM UTC

just a bit optimistic?

No, never, I'm sorry. The phrase "Hal could win" is even contradictory by itself. He might be able to finish within 10 points -- that would be huge by itself -- but that's about as close as he'll be able to get.

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by: passerby @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 22:45:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Republicans will vote for representative Lamborn with a vengeance

because everyone wants at least one of the people they vote for to win, and there aren't many indicators that senator McCain or Mr. Schaffer will fill that role.

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by: colorado76 @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 22:46:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

There's no comparison

Nobody has been spending big money for Bidlack. And the fact that the DCCC hasn't been spending money on Bidlack should tell you everything you need to know - they look at poll numbers before they make a decision on spending money.

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by: Colorado Pols @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 22:47:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's it, squash my dreams...

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

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by: DavidThi808 @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 23:03:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Uh, 55% of Republicans DIDN'T vote for Lamborn in the Primary

...and most of them still can't stand him. LtCol Hal is not an ordinary Dem - he's a weird mix of Federalist and Progressive.

As one Florida friend of mine described Colorado, "it's the most liberal conservative state I've lived in." THAT'S Hal.

If he could get his spots on the air, and tell the district his story (25 year AF Career, instructor on the Constitution at AFA, IN THE PENTAGON on 9/11) and hear his platform (support the Constitution, take care of vets, gun rights first) he's stop Doug into a bloody pulp.

Esp when it comes out that the Good Representative from Colo Springs has NEVER been to a deployment, re-deployment, family support group meeting or funeral on Ft Carson or Peterson AFB, and voted against the new GI Bill along with all the other Colo Repubs.

"The nation which forgets its defenders will be itself forgotten." Calvin Coolidge

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by: SSG_Dan @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 23:04:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Still...

Hal hasn't been running the type of campaign he needs to run to make this seat competitive.

Where is his message?  Where were his chaser pieces that followed the absentee ballots on October 10th?  Where are his commericials?  Radio spots?  Street canvassers?  Yard signs?

If I were a Democrat running for this seat, I would have needed to start running ads two months ago to start making the case that Lamborn is ineffective and a placeholder, and that as a Democrat I would be better suited to work to get results for the district.

Hal hasn't done anything.  How can you win when you don't do anything?

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by: Haners @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 23:15:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Money..

...the problem with Dr Dean's 50 state strategy is that its  not a 453 House seat strategy. It seems the national party has written off CD5 as unwinnable, and directed fire at Musgrave.

Not that the RNCC is fleeing in the night, maybe some money will flow to Hal. Crap, it's cheap to run a spot in the Springs...

"The nation which forgets its defenders will be itself forgotten." Calvin Coolidge

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by: SSG_Dan @ Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 00:40:14 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

435 Seat Strategy

Good God, man, it's not the Politburo. There's no reason every seat needs to be held by one party.

Even in an historic realignment, like we may be facing, the 5th CD is not something the DCCC is going to spend any money on.

The 3rd and 7th were evenly split between Democrats, Republicans and unaffiliateds, and both had retiring incumbents -- so were prime targets. The 4th has been represented by a weak, divisive and provocative incumbent (and has much better numbers than the 5th or 6th), so is a fair shot.

But just as the Republicans stopped trying to snag the 1st or 2nd CDs sometime in the '70s -- even at the height of the Reagan Revolution and Gingrich Take-over -- Democrats realize the 5th is staying Republican this year and will spend their money where it can help win, not just make people feel better about fighting the good fight.

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by: RedGreen @ Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 09:23:02 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

DCCC in 5th?

It's not unheard of for the DCCC to spend money in the 5th -- they spend in the low six-figures in 2006 (and the RNCC spent in the mid-six figures to counter, along with a last-minute visit from Dick Cheney).

And to respond to Haners, Bidlack has been on television in the Colo Spgs market for two-three weeks now.  Driving around the 5th, I see tons of Bidlack yard signs; I've only seen a handful of Lamborn signs, and they're usually the big 4x8s on vacant lots.  

Look, I'm not saying its going to happen -- I'm a realist.  But if there ever were a year when it could happen, 2008 is that kind of year.  Lamborn has been running a much more complacent campaign than in 2006, and Bidlack has been running about the best campaign that could be expected in these circumstances.  

Indeed, if it happens, it will happen in a manner much like this year.  Remember that in 2006, two polls showed the race in the 5th tied one month out from the election.  That spurred Lamborn and the GOP into action; they spent well over a half-million dollars to shore up the race and attack Jay Fawcett.  (I also credit that move as one of the last nails in the coffin of Rick O'Donnell, as they had to move $$$ from the 7th to the 5th to protect the 5th.)

This year, you don't have any real polling going on in the 5th -- it is not on the radar screen, much like the New Hampshire race that shocked everybody in 2006 when GOP Rep. Jeb Bradley lost to a then-unknown Democrat in a GOP district.  In a way, I'm kinda glad that the DCCC and RNCC haven't spent in the 5th yet.  If they had, it would wake a giant in the 5th that is currently sleeping.

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by: dslater @ Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 15:57:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I suppose it could just be the parts of town we're in

I spend most of my time in the Briargate area and the powers area.  I suspect you're seeing those signs downtown?

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by: Haners @ Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 20:03:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well, they did tell her...

They've done more for her than they promised; she wasn't able to seal the deal, and they've got more immediate problems - like John Shadegg's seat in Arizona, and Bill Sali's seat in Idaho (SUSA puts the Dem ahead in an R+19 district today), and Doolittle's open seat in California...

"We're below sharks and contract killers." -- Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.), speaking on Congress's 9% approval rating

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by: Phoenix Rising @ Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 02:57:49 AM UTC