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BREAKING: NRSC To Abandon Schaffer?

by: Colorado Pols

Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 09:09:39 AM MDT

We're hearing credible rumors this morning that the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) will shortly pull out of the Colorado Senate race, citing dwindling cash reserves, Schaffer's plummeting poll numbers, and unexpectedly strong threats to incumbent GOP Senators around the country. Such a move would effectively represent the end of the Bob Schaffer's run, as national donors follow the NRSC's cue.

Some foreshadowing to this situation was indicated the day before yesterday in a report by Politico.com:

The Republican National Committee, growing nervous over the prospect of Democrats' winning a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, is considering tapping into a $5 million line of credit this week to aid an increasing number of vulnerable incumbents, top Republicans say.
With party strategists fearing a bloodbath at the polls, GOP officials are shifting to triage mode, determining who can be saved and where to best spend their money. [Pols emphasis]
And with the House and Senate Republican campaign committees being drastically outspent by their Democratic counterparts, and outside groups such as Freedom's Watch offering far less help than was once anticipated, Republicans are turning to the national party committee as a lender of last resort.
A decision is imminent because television time must be reserved and paid for upfront, and available slots are dwindling.
A representative for the RNC would neither confirm nor deny that it was considering the move...

And the Denver Post reports this morning:

Among the challenges for Schaffer is that the roiling political landscape is also forcing Republican backers to triage resources, scurrying to protect vulnerable incumbents at the cost of open seats like Colorado's.
After together spending nearly $2 million in Colorado Senate ads in the last two weeks of September, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Freedom's Watch - two of Schaffer's biggest backers - suddenly pulled out.
Those two groups are now spending millions in Senate races in Oregon and North Carolina, where Republican incumbents are at risk...

The NRSC won't say anything until the last possible moment, but from what we're hearing it's for real. The latest polling shows strong trends against GOP incumbents all over the country: In Minnesota where Al Franken is now posting small leads on Norm Coleman, in North Carolina where Elizabeth Dole is unexpectedly running behind challenger Kay Hagan, even in Kentucky where Democrat Bruce Lunsford has pulled with 7 points of Mitch McConnell.

Bottom line: The GOP's morale is very close to spent at this point. They are fighting too many rearguard actions as races around the country start to lock in. And as much as they value holding Wayne Allard's Senate seat, there is a growing recognition that Bob Schaffer is headed for an unpreventable loss, and scarce resources must be deployed elsewhere.

Colorado Pols :: BREAKING: NRSC To Abandon Schaffer?

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BREAKING: NRSC To Abandon Schaffer? | 39 comments

Good for TV Watchers in Colorado

Bad for Democrats. Every dollar that the Republicans spent here was one that wouldn't go to saving Coleman (MN), Dole (NC), or Smith (OR). Those three seats are in moderately blue states and if the Democratic challengers can unseat the incumbent they will be seats we can keep almost without a doubt in six years.

I think Colorado will still be a swing state and there will be some threat that Udall could be unseated by a good Republican campaign. Likewise I think Alaska (where I think the Republicans have written off Stevens) is likely to swing back given the only way Democrats can win up there is running against corruption. It will be nice to have the Alaska seat for six years, but we're not going to keep it.

The interesting question for Colorado is if 527s will also follow suit. They aren't officially connected to the Republican party, but they might decide this is good strategy and go to defend Kentucky, Georgia, and Minnesota.

Matthew

by: Precinct854 @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 15:34:24 PM UTC

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Senate incumbents

with their 6 year terms are hard to beat, especially if times are OK. Don't know about Alaska but if Udall and Obama win and times get better with an Obama administration, no reason why Obama and later Udall shouldn't be re-elected. Of course if everything continues to go to hell who knows?

You are right that more money in really tight races like Minnesota could make it much harder to pick those up. A filibuster proof Senate probably is still a very tall order but then nobody expected Dems to take both the House AND Senate in 2006. We certainly are living in interesting times right now. I'd much prefer boring.

by: BlueCat @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 16:12:22 PM UTC

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Colorado Isn't Bad for Democrats

But Colorado isn't good either. An effective incumbent will be able to hold the seat against all comers. We don't yet know what kind of Senator Udall will be.

I'm saying that from a math point of view the seats in North Carolina, Minnesota, and Oregon would be the ones that Democrats can take and keep even if the Senator isn't the world's most dynamic and effective legislator. Indeed after one more reelection a Democrat in those states may well be able to go to sleep like a number of elderly Senators.

I expect Colorado to stay a potential swing state, particularly if in six years the Republicans are nominating the young, fiscal conservatives who don't care about gays or abortions. I think there is that potential, particularly if the Guns, God, and Gays types lose again in 2010. A party can rebuild itself in a surprisingly short amount of time if there are a few people with the will to do so.

Matthew

by: Precinct854 @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 18:03:50 PM UTC

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Agree on all points

Especially that the GOP will be remaking itself.

by: BlueCat @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 18:08:34 PM UTC

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The NRSC has to be about broke

And as Dick Wadhams said about the NRCC, the NRSC's first job is incumbency protection. They've been spending a million bucks a week in Colorado for two months and keep sliding.

Schaffer is sweating right now.

Non impediti ratione cogitationis.

BTW, I "adduced" this all by myself, you total fucking assclown.
-Laughing Boy

by: ThillyWabbit @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 15:46:00 PM UTC

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If this is true

think about the amount of many that was completely wasted by Schaffer, the Colorado GOP, the 527s and the RNC (NRSC and NRCC included.) Millions and millions of dollars.

The only ones who benfited from that were the TV stations.

by: redstateblues @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 15:49:55 PM UTC

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Something on the order of $14 million

According to the Udall camp.

Yo quiero gobierno medio!

by: JeffcoBlue @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 15:51:36 PM UTC

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And it hurt businesses and the ballot issues

They can't get air time because it's entirely being sucked up by the $15,000,000 they have spent so far.

Non impediti ratione cogitationis.

BTW, I "adduced" this all by myself, you total fucking assclown.
-Laughing Boy

by: ThillyWabbit @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 15:54:15 PM UTC

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Well

if they pull their advertising, they'll have a chance to get their messages back on the air during the last two weeks.

I haven't really noticed a lack of ballot initative ads, though. A-50, A-58, and of course A-47, 49, and 54 have had ample airtime IMO.

I would have liked to see ads against A-46 though. It's probably going to pass, and that is bad news for this state.

And by the way, I meant "money" not "many". Damn, I need to wake up.

by: redstateblues @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 15:58:10 PM UTC

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As someone who worked at a Denver Station

All the Denver stations (as well as Comcast, DISH & DirecTV) made steamertrunks full of money during this political season. It probably saved FOX31 and CW2, since their ratings were way down and normal sales were down as well.

They also make much this way - by law, the stations have to sell the ad slots for Political at the lowest rate to ensure that everyone can buy them. However, about 2-3 months before political season, the station jack up the rates waaayyyy high, discounting and "bonusing" (free ads during the day for regular customers) their regular customers. The bottom then gets artificially raised, and they make more money.

By law, the TV station can't bonus the political ads, so they also can't bonus the regular clients....which is why you don't see as many regular ads during primetime.

If the RNC pulls their ads from the stations, then someone will swoop in and buy them up. So the stations will never loose money when this happens.

"The nation which forgets its defenders will be itself forgotten." Calvin Coolidge

by: SSG_Dan @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 16:12:21 PM UTC

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All I know is

It's getting damn near impossible to watch TV at all.

by: BlueCat @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 16:14:53 PM UTC

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I sold my TV

in 2003. I've been happier ever since. You should try it.

"Apple denies that, based on their common meaning, the words 'app store' together denote a store for apps"
-- Legal filing by Apple Computer

by: cdsmith @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 17:32:25 PM UTC

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We kept ours

But it's only connected to DVD and VCR. We break out the rabbit ears for the Olympics and watch Jon Stewart online.

Its just like Further, but with tax cuts! - Fidel's Dirt Nap

by: ajb @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 18:14:14 PM UTC

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interesting perspective

I didn't know that. It kind of makes me mad that anyone should make tens of millions of dollars off of the political process.

by: redstateblues @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 16:20:02 PM UTC

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This doesn't look good for Schaffer

Non impediti ratione cogitationis.

BTW, I "adduced" this all by myself, you total fucking assclown.
-Laughing Boy

by: ThillyWabbit @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 15:50:47 PM UTC

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It's the same data

that the RNC and their allies are looking at. I woul be tempted to pull ads too if I were them.

by: redstateblues @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 15:53:23 PM UTC

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Hard to come back from 30s

by: BlueCat @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 16:15:32 PM UTC

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The real interesting question

is will the McCain campaign drop Colorado. I think they might in another week as they have to work to defend IN, AK, & WV - not to mention ND and MT.

Life is good.

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

by: DavidThi808 @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 16:44:59 PM UTC

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They can't afford to drop Colorado. If they're spending money to defend those states, and dropping Colorado to do so, they're admitting defeat. Even if they need to do so, they won't ever admit defeat, and if they lose Colorado, they really can't get to 270. They might drop Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota. But they can't drop Colorado -- the message that would send to GOP voters nationwide would be too harsh, and wouldn't accomplish anything.

If the national polling numbers tighten -- as the Obama campaign expects -- then Colorado will similarly tighten to a 1-2 point race. That's why they HAVE to stay in Colorado. If those numbers don't tighten, it doesn't really matter where McCain plays.

by: dslater @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 16:48:51 PM UTC

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Agreed

McCain will fight to the end here, and his chances have always been better than Schaffer's.

by: Colorado Pols @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 16:56:57 PM UTC

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I agree as well

Worst case firewall for the GOP is to win the states that went for Bush. They cannot take Colorado off the table and win.

Of course, that shows why winning at all is going to be stiff for them.

With the top of the ticket in disarray, it is a good day for Hudak, Whitcomb, Newell and the rest of the down ticket Dems.

by: TakeBackTheHouse @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 17:39:11 PM UTC

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They drop Colorado

it's over. It is very, very hard for Obama to lose if he wins Colorado.

McCain could win Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Missouri and Nevada, and it still wouldn't matter without Colorado.

So long as Obama takes Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico, and wins all the Kerry states, it's virtually impossible for McCain to win.

by: redstateblues @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 16:51:37 PM UTC

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Think you're both right

by: BlueCat @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 16:58:25 PM UTC

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McCain is down double digits

in Virginia and Florida, vs. a swinging margin in Colorado.

by: RedGreen @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 17:48:40 PM UTC

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I wonder how much Palin's pastors and church guests

have turned off Jewish seniors in Florida? My mom knows many who were HRC supporters and leaning towards McCain because they frankly weren't ready to vote for the black guy. Wonder if stories about various folks at Palin's church blaming terrorism in Israel on Jews remaining unbelievers and blaming "Israelite" bankers for our financial mess didn't make a McCain/Palin ticket scarier to them than the black guy.

I know I've done my bit, sending relevant video and quotes to Mom to forward to her acquaintances. Her friends are all for Obama. She doesn't suffer fools gladly.

by: BlueCat @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 18:18:10 PM UTC

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I bet

fears over losing retirement nest eggs, and the McCain advisor's promise to cut Medicare, has had more to do with the vast swing, but you're right, the heavy-handed Christianity from the pulpit hasn't helped.

by: RedGreen @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 18:24:28 PM UTC

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McCain is going to have trouble

defending Jefferson County. The latest polling has Obama trailing in Jefferson County 45-42. If McCain can't hold onto Jefferson County then he is looking at almost impossible odds of winning the state.

Send more money John. Lots more money. Spend spend spend. Just like a Republican. Borrow oodles of money but just keep spending on all those negative nasty ads. People are being swayed that you are the better man. That's the solution. Spend more money on nasty negative ads.

by: Gilpin Guy @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 17:26:31 PM UTC

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The funny thing is

McCain doesn't need to be tricked into running his campaign badly.

"Have a Bobby bar! My dad made them." --Jon Huntsman Jr.

by: sxp151 @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 17:33:19 PM UTC

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I've come to believe

McCain isn't exactly the sharpest knife in the drawer. Nothing to do with age. No sign he ever was. Although age probably doesn't help.

by: BlueCat @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 18:20:51 PM UTC

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Speaking of the McCain campaign...

Somebody posted this on Firedog Lake yesterday.

Sort of fits the McCain campaign to a "T"

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same. Which one will it be? --Joseph V. Paterno

by: Ralphie @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 18:29:22 PM UTC

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LOL...I actually witnessed a Texas politician

giving a speech amid those bags of air on the San Antonio river walk when we took an autumn vacation a few years back.

by: WesternSlopeThought @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 21:51:43 PM UTC

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The Wadhams stock

in the eyes of national Republicans must be dropping faster than GM shares. After leading the top Consevative presidential pick from Virginia into oblivion, he has managed to continue his political ineptitude by showing the Colorado Republican Party the path to obscurity. While twice as many Republicans in Colorado support Senator Obama as there are Democrats supporting Senator McCain, the real embarrassment for Wadhams is that the latest Quinnipiac poll shows that 11 percent of Colorado R's are now supporting Representative Udall. (anyone want to bet that he blames failure on Schaffer after the election as he did Allen) When Wadhams does not display the skills necessary to keep his own base in line, could D's be any happier with the R's choice of chairmanship?

Maybe we could help out the R's by kicking in a percentage of Wadhams' salary on the condition they give him a 12 year contract?

by: WesternSlopeThought @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 16:49:23 PM UTC

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Wadham's world is becoming a thing of the past

Ditto for Rove and DeLay. Will we see a return to the Republican Party of old after this election is over?

by: BlueCat @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 17:01:27 PM UTC

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Wad

His candidate is doing worse than Ali Hassan!

So whose fault is that, Dick? Did you screw up? Is Udall just too great of a candidate? Or is Schaffer just that wrong for Colorado?

by: TakeBackTheHouse @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 17:42:14 PM UTC

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Now that is a shift in the time-space continuim

If Hassan gets a better percentage in his district than Schaffer - wow. That would be the final nail in the coffin for Schaffer/Wadhams.

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

by: DavidThi808 @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 19:41:22 PM UTC

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Big Oil Bob...

...just ain't gonna believe those biased polls! From the Rocky...

"I just have polls that contradict that . . . that show the trend in the right direction for me," Schaffer said Tuesday before touring a power plant in Lamar.

by: divad @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 19:25:54 PM UTC

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And he hasn't released them to the public

because they're such awesome results, they might blow everyone's minds, and Schaffer doesn't want to do that to people. (Think of the cleanup costs!)

"Have a Bobby bar! My dad made them." --Jon Huntsman Jr.

by: sxp151 @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 19:31:03 PM UTC

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The trend eh?

But they don't show him ahead, otherwise he would have said that. If the NRSC pulls their ads, he can wave bye-bye to even dreaming of pulling even with Udall. Even his internals will show him that all is lost.

by: redstateblues @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 19:38:22 PM UTC

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maybe Schaffer has quit his campaign to work for Amendment 47 :-p

linky:

Schaffer told the breakfast crowd that labor unions agreed to set aside the proposal after "business leaders paid off labor unions."
...
"Labor isn't being paid anything," said Pat Hamill, the Denver businessman most closely involved in reaching an agreement with labor leaders. "We're running our own issue campaign to get things defeated. When people makes these statements, they should check their facts."

Drinking Liberally in a SquareState

by: johne @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 19:52:57 PM UTC

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BREAKING: NRSC To Abandon Schaffer? | 39 comments