CO-04 (Special Election)
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(R) Greg Lopez
(R) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Joe Biden*
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%↓
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
90%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
90%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
(R) Ron Hanks
40%
30%
20%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(R) Deborah Flora
(R) J. Sonnenberg
30%↑
15%↑
10%↓
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Dave Williams
(R) Jeff Crank
50%↓
50%↑
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
90%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) Brittany Pettersen
85%↑
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
(R) Janak Joshi
60%↑
35%↓
30%↑
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
October 30, 2014 11:03 AM UTC
31 Comments
Achole and moderanus praised the last PPP poll – what will they say now? con man cory losing ground. Of course achole may be to involved with his rash to comment.
This one is different. It doesn’t fit with their narrative.
Silence is golden
If the Dems turnout is as the Dem poll suggests it may well be a tie. PPP weighed the polling at R+1. That will be off by 5 or 6 %, currently off by 9+%. If you weigh the poll based on the correct turnout Gardner is up by 5.
What makes you sure you know correct turnout, GOP thought they knew that in 2012 and Romney would win big….oops
GOP predicted not many democrats would turn out in 2012 and boy, were they wrong. The GOP should just STFU with their predictions.
One clue, what was the turnout model of the dem poll released yesterday?
R+7, not R+1.
That is also assuming that every single Republican vote cast was cast in favor of Beauprez and Gardner (and vise versa for the Democratic votes). Commons sense tells us that's not the case, as do the cross tabs which show a picture of a straight party vote not existing.
Do you even math, bro? You can't call that the correct turnout until the turnout is actually known.
Losing indies and hispanic voters by double digits doesn't spell good news for Cory Gardner. Now does it? 😉
AC must be supplying Quinnipiac it's "likely" voter model – they had had Beauprez up 10, then Hick up 10 and now back to Beauprez up 5 … it's tough being a right wing hack in Colorado these days.
Gardner and Beauprez are losing BAD among hispanic and independent voters. 😉
I think PPP had it tied or Buck up by 1 in its final 2010 pole.
Anticipating from the Republicans the equivalent of 2008's "great news for John McCain!" in reference to these poll results.
From the crosstabs, it looked to me like it was 63% Udall–27% Gardner among Hispanic voters, rather than 55-27.
Here there are, Polsters — the three things the GOTP and its minions desperately cannot afford to let you have at this critical moment:
Hope. Optimism. Faith.
Keep up the great work, and please join me if you can in getting out the vote!
We Boulder County Dems will be putting Vote Notes on targeted voter's doors all weekend. My feet are sore just thinking about it. 🙂
Jen, do you know if the kids are turning out?
I don't know. I can pull up statistics for my own precincts (I'm an area coordinator) but not for anywhere else. Someone knows these sorts of details, but not me.
Thanks.
AC, where are you spending election night?
I want to watch the returns come in with you.
TakeBack, I have no idea. The parties tend to have segregated parties, which means it may just be me and Mod. I think the R party is at the Hyatt in the DTC. I have not decided whether to go. I expect with the mail in voting there will be much less suspense this go around.
New numbers from Colorado Secretary of State: Dem ballots received: 337,897. GOP: 443,240. Unaffiliated: 259,947.
This is not good news for us Colorado democrats. I am hoping that the democrat's ground game prevails and I am hoping that many democrats will turn in their ballots in the next few days. We should be winning these races much more easily. The republicans in Colorado are wackos.
are these yesterday's numbers? I thought they only come out on certain days, and yesterday was one of those.
Today. Those numbers you see above will be the numbers released tomorrow. Dems need to turn their ballots in ASAP!
It's tracking about the same as two days or so ago – Reps moved up to 42.4% from 41.9% and Dems edged down to 32.3 from 32.5 … a .6 differential in rate of returned ballots between the previous report. In other words in the past two days or so the GOP has turned in ballots a faster rate than Dems. But, the previous 3-4 day period Dems had made up about a 1% increase in rate of returned ballots over the GOP.
The other thing that may be affecting the "turn in" rate, is the reporting rate – some counties count and report quicker than others. And Reps typically turn them in earlier and Dems later.
Big Time,
The fact that Republicans have increased their percentages in the last couple days tells me it is over. 104 K lead at the 50-60% mark and growing. If 3/4 of the votes are in before Tuesday at this rate you can call it.
…getting desperate, aren't you, shithead?
Ugh! That is awful. Where are you getting the numbers? Are there crosstabs?
From a WSJ article from today
In reality, it is too early to read too much into the Colorado numbers, but that will be less true at the end of this week or the beginning of the next as the votes trickle in. In fact, we may have a very good idea of who has won some of the big races in the state next Monday evening or Tuesday morning by looking at the turnout in some key counties and precincts.
For the moment, however, don’t read too much into the early vote tallies in Colorado.
Watching the tallies from day-to-day might give an indication of whether the Democrats or Republicans are reaching their people, but next weekend may be the big one for votes to come in. (There were more than 1.7 million ballots cast in the state’s 2010 race.) Beyond the mail-ins, there is still the opportunity for individuals to drop votes off at locations around the state on Election Day.
And remember this is the first time the state has used the mail-in system for a major election year, with all its House seats, as well as the Senate seat and the governor’s mansion in the balance. Some bumps in the road – when were ballots received, are they all valid – may be likely, even expected.
There are, for example, no rules about the date by which ballots must be marked. They simply have to be to the county clerk’s office by 7 p.m. on Election Day. There is the question of what happens if a voter loses his or her ballot. (The voter can get a new ballot from the county clerk or vote in person at a polling center — but will voters know where to go?)
That meansthat even with all these early votes, if the races are very close, they may not be over early.
Link to an interesting article regarding voter turnout in several states (including Colorado). Good news and bad news in the article but hope is not lost.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/31/upshot/early-voting-election-results-hold-good-news-for-democrats.html?abt=0002&abg=1&_r=0
My favorite part :The remaining voters who participated in 2010 but haven’t yet cast their ballots are far less Republican.Mark Udall, the Democratic incumbent trailing in the polls, needs more than just the remaining voters from 2010. He is hoping that the state’s new universal mail-voting system will result in more ballots from irregular, Democratic-leaning voters who voted in 2012 but not 2010. The good news for Mr. Udall is that 23 percent of those who have voted so far this time did not participate in 2010, and, so far, they are less Republican than those who voted in 2010.