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October 29, 2014 01:21 PM UTC

S360: Udall 45% Gardner 44%, Hickenlooper 46% Beauprez 43%

  • 57 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols
Mark Udall, Cory Gardner.
Mark Udall, Cory Gardner.

A new poll from local consultant outfit Strategies 360 offers a different look at the Colorado U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races, with a polling sample they consider to be more representative of the 2014 electorate in Colorado than most public polling we've seen–in particular, a more accurate sample of Latino voters. From their memo today:

Strategies 360 conducted a telephone survey of Colorado voters who are likely to vote in the 2014 General Election. Respondents were randomly chosen from a list of registered voters and interviews were conducted by trained interviewers in both English and Spanish. Interviews were conducted October 20-25, 2014. A combination of landline and mobile phones were called to ensure greater coverage of the population sampled.

A total of 760 interviews were completed. 604 interviews were conducted among a representative sample of likely voters statewide. An additional 156 oversample interviews were conducted among Hispanic likely voters. The sample was weighted to ensure a proportional demographic representation of the likely 2014 electorate. The topline margin of error is ±4.0 and the margin of error for Hispanic voters is ±6.7%.

Currently, Democratic Sen. Mark Udall (45%) and Republican Rep. Cory Gardner (44%) are locked in a statistical tie, with another 8% undecided and 4% supporting a third-party candidate. Several factors contribute to the stalemate:

A massive gender gap. Udall currently holds the same 17-point lead among women that exit polls showed Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet holding in 2010. Meanwhile, Gardner leads among men by a similar 17-point margin. Additionally, Udall leadsamong white women by an 11-point margin and Hispanic women by a 37-point margin. In contrast, Gardner leads among white men by a huge 23-point margin but is currently losing Hispanic men by 29% to 57%. 

Unaffiliated voters. While partisans on both sides are similarly united around their party’s nominee (83% of Democrats back Udall, while 80% of Republicans support Gardner), Udall has more effectively consolidated Unaffiliated voters, which helps negate an expected GOP turnout advantage this year. Today, Unaffiliated Coloradans prefer Udall to Gardner 48% to 37%. 

Hispanics. Much of the media coverage of the U.S. Senate race has centered on Colorado’s Hispanic vote, and for good reason. This race may very well hinge on Hispanic turnout. Currently, Gardner edges Udall among white voters 47% to 43%. In most of the other key U.S. Senate races in 2014, that might be enough for the Republican to secure a win. However, Colorado features the highest proportion of Hispanic voters of any targeted U.S. Senate race this year, and Udall holds a commanding lead among this critical voting bloc: 58% of Hispanic likely voters favor Udall while just 26% favor Gardner. 

Young voters. This race remains close in part because older and middle-aged voters have yet to offer a real edge to either candidate (voters 55 and older split 46% to 46%; voters 35 to 54 lean toward Gardner 42% to 44%). Meanwhile, Udall has built a 10-point lead among voters under 35 (46% to 36%). Furthermore, young voters are disproportionately undecided compared to the older age cohorts. Turnout among this group will be key to any Democratic chances of holding Colorado.

Here's the full memo from Strategies 360. In the gubernatorial race, Gov. John Hickenlooper's somewhat larger lead is attributable to both a large gender gap and a sizable lead among unaffiliated voters–52-35%.

If this poll more accurate than others we're seeing? We do think that Strategies 360's attempt to factor Latino voters gives them a qualitative edge over a lot of the public pollsters–some of whom admit candidly that they have no idea how to account for this pivotal bloc of voters in their surveys. Also, back in 2010, Kevin Ingham, longtime Colorado pollster now with Strategies 360, released a poll on that year's U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races that turned out to be dead-on. So yes, we're inclined to trust these numbers a little more.

At the very least, throw this poll into your averages, and note the conscientious attempt to get it right.

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57 thoughts on “S360: Udall 45% Gardner 44%, Hickenlooper 46% Beauprez 43%”

  2. No cross tabs.  How many R's Ds UAF?  Who commissioned the poll?  Tough to figure out if it is another "just keepin' hope alive" internal special or something to take seriously.

      1. I have had problems with the Q polling.  If I can't understand the methodology and/or the results seem weird, I question them.  I think Udall loses by 3 or so. I don't have a feel for how Hick turns out but think he does better than Udall.

    3. ??? http://coloradopols.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/S360-CO-Statewide-Release-Memo.pdf

       

      Weighted %

      Udall

      Gardener

      Hickenlooper

      Beauprez

      Democrats

      33

      83

      6

      83

      8

      Unafilliated

      27

      48

      37

      52

      35

      Republicans

      40

      10

      80

      12

      78

      The same partisan likely voter breakdown we've seen all season, plus:

      Today, Unaffiliated Coloradans prefer Udall to Gardner 48% to 37%.

      There is no spin that makes this good news for Gardener. If pollsters are overestimating relative Republican turnout, it's going to be a black night for you, good sir.

      1. Oh my, the table function doesnt work? Pols, if you read this can you delete that post… or trim the malformed table?

        Anyway, the sample is (33D, 27U, 40R).

          1. Ben.  The numbers that seem off are both the Republican and Dem support of their own candidate and the Unaffiliated number.  I have been seeing 90 R for Gardner, 5 for Udall and vice versa and the Unaffiliated at about a 5% Dem lead not an 11% lead.

              1. Unaffiliated voters have broken hard for Dems the last few elections. This coincides with a rightward shift of the state republican party, whose voters are very ideological and have been pushing ideologue candidates on the moderate voters. Turns out U voters don't like that, and concerning the effect the ideologues are having on Jeffco this year, yeah that number is probably just gonna get worse for you,

            2. It does look odd, but Udall consistently pulls in 8-10% of self-identified Republicans. Unless Rassmussen has something wildly different (I don't have access to Ras Platinum) theres not much to question. Really, the story here should be titled, "Tight Senate Race still Tight." It makes for boring reporting, little commentary and bad viewing, especially concidering the lack of gaffes or scandals. Perhaps this is the reason for QP's bombastic prose in their releases. 

               

              1. Ben, The Marist Poll which had Gardner up by 1, understated Republicans by using a likely voter of R 32, D 31, UAP 35, which to me accounted for their conclusion.  The numbers they had were Ds 90% Udall 5% Gardner.  R's 93% Gardner, 5% Udall. 

                Udall lead UAF 44-41.

                Those numbers were more consistent with the other polling I have been reading.

                I also don't have access to the Ras cross tab info.

                http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/COpolls/CO141018/Complete%20October%202014%20Colorado%20NBC%20News__Marist%20Poll%20Release%20and%20Tables.pdf

                1. The YOu Gov- NYT survey that had Udall up 1

                  Dems Udall 94- Gardner 2

                  Repub Gardner 90 Udall 4

                  They had UAF Gardner +4.

                  Their poll had more Dems than Rs polled.

                2. Meh, the magnitude of cross party support is still approximately the same and any difference would be entirely within both poll's MoE. 

                  As for the difference in unaffiliated voters, it really depends on how the poll asked. Whether or not you pull in Dems and Reps who call them selfs indies can change the result. They're all within the same MoE, but Udall has a consistent lead among moderate independents. 

  3. ZOMG — a poll that actually recognizes the existence of that rarest of CO electoral unicorns this polling cycle: the rare, mysterious Latino voter!

    The racist rumps are simply not going to stand for this! I can hear them harumphing already!

  4. The Election Will Be Won By the GOTV

    No one knows how this race will turn out next Tuesday and here's why; but one thing is now sure – its in the hands of the GOTV.

    First, the polling data has the race clearly within the margin of error and very close when you eliminate the outlier polls.

    Second, we've had one election that was an all mail ballot and that was the 2013 recall elections. Admittedly, that election was held in only two of the thirty-five state senate districts, but its the only empirical data and experience we have to go by. Of the total votes cast in the recall elections, 40% of the mail-in ballots were hand delivered to polling stations or the clerk's offices on election day.

    Assuming the same kind of thing happens next Tuesday, then this election will be won and lost based on the ground game each candidate and political party can muster between now and 7:00 PM Tuesday evening.

    1. BS – there was not mail ballot in 2013 recall elections. In fact, quite the opposite:

      "The Sept. 10 recall elections of two Democratic Colorado lawmakers were supposed to be the first test-run of a new election overhaul, passed this year by Democrats, that would have sent mail ballots to every voter.Now, those elections won’t involve any mail ballots at all. After a long day in court, District Judge Robert McGahey ruled in favor of Colorado Libertarians, who’d sued after being denied a spot on the recall ballot because they failed to meet a deadline, put in place by the new election law, to submit petitions within 10 days of the election date being set."

      http://kdvr.com/2013/08/12/judges-ruling-means-no-mail-ballots-in-recall-elections/

      The Libertarians, in cahoots with the GOP, of course, stopped mail in ballots in those elections … for obvious reasons. 

      1. Actually, we finally got mail ballots back in Pueblo, due to the heroic efforts and persistence of our Clerk, Bo Ortiz. But it went back and forth at least 3 times before the election….people were very confused about how to vote. 

  5. R36,  It depends on what happens between now and Tuesday. The race may be over before Tuesday.

    If the Rs have a 125 to 150 K lead (it is now 84,602 of 905,500) in returned ballots of 1.5 to 1.8 Mill returned and only 250 – 500 K people show up on Tuesday, it is over before it has started.

    2. 2010 had a 79,000 ballot lead for Republicans in total. You're correct, if the R ballot advantage is 125-150k, it is probably over for Udall. (Hick gets more crossover voters, so he may still win). However, the next few days will be key. We'll see what turnout looks like tuesday night.

  6. Boy, somebody's sure in a rush to shut this thing down before all the voters have voted! And well, why not? If you can't suppress their votes outright from the start, why not simply terminate the election early, based on half-assed assumptions and partisan "projections"?

    Sounds like Soviet-style Communism to me….

  7. Bottom line: With every new ballot count from Gessler's office, the GOTP lead has been shown to be shrinking — from 16% to 12% to 10.4% to today's 9.4%.

    The overall trend line clearly favors the Dems, if not yet the raw vote count (though we still don't know with certainty if every R vote is also a vote for Gardner, Beuaprez, et al, and similarly whether every D vote will favor Udall, Hick, et al). And so it will remain until and unless that trend line reverses and shows the GOTP share increasing.

    Latinos will be a large, possibly huge determining factor in deciding these races, and as of yet they have been grossly under-polled in CO and elsewhere, according to most experts who've commented publicly on the subject.

    1. DP, the trend line will not reverse.  The Republican lead % will get smaller.  But the amount of the lead in votes will continue.  If 1.6 million vote early and 500K vote on Tuesday, and the Republicans have banked 125- 150 K in early Republican ballots,  the Dems would need to win 60- 65% of the vote on Tuesday and that ain't happening.

      1. That's just not true.  To know that you'd have to know how the Us swing.  It they go R, it's a bigger lift for Dems.  If they're +11 D, as the Strategies 360 poll suggests, then the hurdle is much more reasonable.  If the R vote defection rate is also +4 vs. Dems as the survey suggests, that makes the hurdle even smaller.

        1. The bottom line though is that D's have to start mailing in their ballots or it's over at the state level.  It couldn't be easier.  If they aren't motivated enough to put a stamp on the envelope and mail it back then they deserve what they get.
           

          2. You don't even need a stamp.You can drop it off. I always do because then I don't have to worry about one of those once in a blue moon lost mail mishaps. We once actually got that check the client said was in the mail two weeks later once and it was postmarked the day she swore she mailed it. Of course by the that time th check had been sti stopped and she'd written us a new one.  Point is, I drop off.

            You can also give it to someone else to drop off. Basically, you don't have to leave your couch. There is always a surge among the most Dem leaning demos at deadline. 

            1. Even in GJ we have a robust calling operation to GOTV. We are going to win this thing.

              All this back and forth about polling errors and weighted numbers is just so much mental masturbation, but some people enjoy that , so..whatever…

              But the fact is…it is TOO CLOSE TO CALL.

              We will know, in about a week.

              I am traveling to Atlanta for a week on election day, so I will be relying on Pols for election returns. Until then, the Piss Ant and the Moderanus will continue to spew their clabbered pablum for the entertainment of the politically obsessed among us…

              Ahhh…I love democracy!

      2. What poor math skills Andrew.  You must have been home schooled or gone to a Fundy Madarassa charter school or maybe you went to a rich charter school where your parents paid someone to do your homework.

        The trend line can absolutely be reversed.  There is an ever shrinking base of Republican voters out of the remaining uncast ballots so it is easily conceivable that more Democratic ballots will arrive than Republican ones making it mathmatically possible for the trend line to be reversed and the absolute gap shrink.  There is still a lot of GOTV on the ground going on so anything is possible at this point (blow out to squeaker).

        As Rumsfield once famously remarked: "There are the unknown knowns" and one of them is the motivation of Dems to vote.  If they get complacent this election then they will be more fired up next election after having to suffer the Kansas like consequences of believing The Stupid.

  8. Embarrassingly, there isn't an inch of daylight between Snowball Snooki and Catfish on their climate change postions:  It's the new Eugenics, don't you know?

    Viewing this episode is painful, and it would be hilarious if it wasn't for the fact that her exact words could literally fall out of my Congressman's mouth.

     

      1. As I have said before…Mitch McConnell has made it perfectly clear that, if the Pubs take the Senate, he will try to institute the Kansas economic model to every state in the union.

        There will be a lot of pain and suffering if that happens….

  11. …From DK,

    Yesterday, I presented a case that the Republicans in Colorado are doing a remarkable job at banking early votes. In fact, they have been so good at it, that it's mathematically impossible for them to keep up this pace through election day.

    I also suggested that you really need to look at the county by county returns and extrapolate to what is sure to be a much bigger turnout than 2010, to get a good idea of how well the Democrats are doing in Colorado.  When you look at those numbers, the Democrats are behind by about 2% from where they need to be.

    But if the Republicans are really just banking votes early, without adding new voters, we should start seeing the Democrats close the early vote gap pretty soon.

     

    And that's exactly what we are seeing from today's latest Secretary of State report.

    Here's the latest returns from the S.O.S;

    Dem    32.5%                                               
    Rep    41.9%                                               
    None/Other    25.6%

    And here are the returns from Mondays S.O.S report

    Dem    32.4%                                               
    Rep    42.8%                                               
    None/Other    24.8%

    So the Dems gained a full 1% and narrowed the early vote gap from 10.4% to 9.4%.  In 2010 at the end of early voting, the R's had a 6.1% advantage.  Can we catch them, absolutely!  So if everyone continues to vote at the same rate as they are voting in this last report, 963012 Republicans will end up voting.  The problem is, there are only about 950,000 active Republican voters in the state!  So even after the Republican early vote dropped a full 1% from the last report, it is still impossible for them to continue voting at the present rate.

    Colorado's bellwether county is considered to be Jefferson county.  So how is it doing?  It went from an R advantage of 8% 2 days ago, to 7.5% today.  At that rate, it'll break that 6.2% R advantage from 2010.  Remember, we won that 2010 race.

    This is the early vote turnout in heavily Democratic Boulder county in Colorado, compared to the 2010 turnout.

    Here's the 2010 early vote:

    Now here's the current Boulder county turnout:

    So what we're seeing here is, in heavily Democratic Boulder county, it looks like about 58% of the people who voted in 2012 but not in 2010, are now voting in 2014.  This is good news since the R's turnout much better than D's in midterms, a similar gain by the R's wouldn't be as great as for D's.

    So there's no doubt the Colorado D's will continue gaining in the early vote count, and will most certainly dominate on election day, the only question is by how much.  And the how much is totally up to us.

    GOTV! GOTV! GOTV!

     

    Gardner is going down. 😉

     

    1. FYI, the GOPers appear to be getting better and more aggressive at GOTV — more so than I've ever seen in the past, particularly for an off-year election .  Because I live in DougCo and am ancient enough to still have a listed land line, I guess it's presumed that I'd be a reliable GOPer vote.  I've been getting robo calls almost every night this past week from different GOPer sources — letting me know that I haven't turned in my ballot yet in this important election.

      I did turn in my ballot the day after it arrived.  I'm guessing that my invisibility is because when I registered here several eons ago, I was given at that time the option of having my registration be considered "confidential" — which I chose — I'm not even sure that this option is still available to voter registrants.  Anyway, because of that, not only is my registration invisible, but also apparently my record of having voted is also invisible to all but elections officials.

    2. Boulder and Denver need to turn out heavily, and Udall has to win Jeffco outright. Gardener can still squeak by on conservative turnout if this year looks too much like 2010. Bennet won against Buck, whereas Gardener is perceived by voters as more moderate.

  12. Joe Scarborough has a grim view for gop chances.

    “Any Republican right now saying they’re going to take the Senate is a fool.”
    -Joe Scarborough, MSNBC’s Morning Joe

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